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Fantasy Football Picks: Rams vs. 49ers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Rams and the 49ers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Usually it’s the Monday Night Football matchups that start looking a little shaky by Week 6, but after a blowout loss to the Dolphins last Sunday, I’m not sure if many people are looking forward to watching the 49ers in primetime. Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t all get a kick out of some NFC West NFL DFS, right?

We’ve got San Francisco. We’ve got Los Angeles. Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (LAR vs SF)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Jared Goff ($16,200 CP) - Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious play at the top. Before we get into the 49ers’ deficiencies, let’s take a moment to pump Goff’s tires. Through five weeks, the former first-overall pick is leading the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (8.3) and is second to only MVP front-runner Russell Wilson in adjusted completion percentage (83.9%). Goff is playing some extremely efficient football right now, and it’s led directly to him averaging a whopping 27.9 DKFP in his three road starts so far in 2020. Conversely, San Francisco’s secondary is on the heels of allowing an eye-popping 12.2 yards per opponent pass attempt in an embarrassing loss to Miami. They made 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick look like 1984 Dan Marino and that was also with the rookie Robert Hunt making his NFL debut at right tackle for the Dolphins. Obviously getting Emmanuel Moseley back will help this unit a great deal, but Goff should be able to exploit this matchup.

Raheem Mostert ($14,700 CP) - It was a little lost in the shuffle of Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,600) getting benched and Miami’s non-stop touchdown spree, but Mostert looked exceptional when called upon in his return from a knee injury last weekend. The 28-year-old finished the contest with 90 rushing yards on 11 carries, while he also converted his three targets into three catches for an additional 29 yards. For the season, Mostert is averaging an insane 8.8 yards per touch — the highest mark of the 39 RBs with 40-plus touches — and, for his career, he’s still producing an fantastic 6.2 yards per carry. Whether it’s him or Kyle Shanahan’s blocking schemes, Mostert has proven he doesn’t need a lot of volume to do damage. If the script can stay a little more competitive than in Week 5, I expect a nice performance from Mostert against a Rams defense that’s surrendering 4.97 adjusted line yards per opponent rushing attempt.


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FLEX Plays

Cooper Kupp ($9,000) - Kupp is by no means a frugal addition to a stack of the Rams’ passing attack, but he’s clearly been Goff’s No. 1 target across the past three weeks. In that span, Kupp’s 25 targets are eight more than Robert Woods ($8,400) has received and, despite an underwhelming 6.7 yard aDOT, the wideout has averaged a very respectable 12.7 yards per reception. Plus, with the aforementioned Moseley back in the fold, it would seem that the 49ers will be most susceptible in the slot — a place where Kupp has run 60% of his routes so far this season. With K’Wuan Williams on IR, it was Jamar Taylor activated from the practice squad and asked to be the nickel in Week 5. He proceeded to allow a 100% catch rate and an massive 3.72 yards per route covered. Kupp will eat him alive.

Deebo Samuel ($6,200) - I think it’s pretty safe to say Samuel is back at full-strength. After playing on just 34.2% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in Week 4, the sophomore WR logged a 89.1% snap share against the Dolphins and tied George Kittle ($10,400) for the team-lead in targets with eight. Sure, he only ended up turning those opportunities into two catches and 4.2 DKFP, but I assume you, that was more of a Garoppolo issue than Samuel’s own doing. In any event, even with questions about San Francisco’s QB room, it’s rare to find a roster’s No. 1 receiver priced this modestly. I’d try and take advantage.

Cam Akers ($2,000) - Trying to project Los Angeles’ running back situation each game is about as fun as a bag of rocks, but there’s obvious potential for Akers to outperform this bargain price tag. While he only saw 13 offensive snaps in his return last Sunday against Washington, Akers carried the ball nine times and even ripped off an impressive 46-yard run in the 30-10 victory. There have been reports all week that the rookie will see an increased workload versus San Francisco and, with Darrell Henderson Jr. ($7,400) generally unimpressive the past two contests, I don’t see why that wouldn’t be the case.


Fades

Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,600) - While Garoppolo might be asked to do some heavy lifting in a game I expect Los Angeles to win, I just can’t trust the pivot after what I witnessed last Sunday. Yes, the Dolphins did welcome back star corner Byron Jones in Week 5, but Garoppolo looked completely lost in a decent matchup and clearly effected by his injured ankle. Now he’ll face a Rams D/ST ($5,600) that hasn’t even conceded an opponent touchdown pass in three of their five contests in 2020. It’s also not like Garoppolo’s DFS ceiling is all that high in a vacuum, anyway. Including the playoffs, the QB’s managed 20-plus DKFP in only four of his last 21 starts.


THE OUTCOME

Injuries are certainly a huge part of the NFL and while the 49ers have been hit hard in 2020, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league heading into Week 6. That alone should give you confidence in Los Angeles; however, if you need some statistical backing, consider that the Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. On the other hand, San Francisco is 0-3 ATS at home this season.

Final Score: Los Angeles 31, San Francisco 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (LAR vs SF)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.