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Fantasy Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Zach Thompson preps you for Monday’s 5:00 p.m. ET DraftKings Showdown contest between the Chiefs and the Bills with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Due to the Buffalo Bills having to play last Tuesday, the NFL moved this matchup to Monday after it was originally scheduled for last Thursday. As a result, we get to finish out Week 6 in the NFL with a Monday Night Football doubleheader that starts out with this early game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills.

Both of these teams come in with identical 4-1 records and are looking to rebound from their first loss of the season. Will the reigning Super Bowl champs bounce back with a win or can Buffalo show they’re a legitimate contender with a big win at home? Let’s break it all down from a DraftKings Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (KC vs BUF)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen ($16,800 CP) - Both QBs are pretty pricey in this contest, but I actually think Allen could end up a better play at Captain since he’s almost $3K cheaper in that spot. So far this season, Allen is actually out-producing Mahomes, averaging 30.1 DKFP to Mahomes’ 29.6 DKFP. Allen has been the No. 5 overall QB this season, according to his PFF grade, which puts him two slots ahead of Mahomes. Both QBs have contributed rushing production as well, with Allen running for a pair of touchdowns and over 20 yards per game in addition to averaging 317.8 passing yards per contest. He did struggle a bit last week against the Titans, finishing with a season-low 18.32 DKFP. In each of his four previous games, Allen had posted over 25 DKFP, and I think he should be able to bounce back to that number in this matchup. He also could end up with the better QB matchup since the Bills’ secondary is hopeful to get CB Tre’Davious White (back; questionable) back in the mix. While both QBs have elite upside, I’d lean toward Allen in the Captain’s spot since he could have similar production and allows more salary for your flex spots.

Mecole Hardman ($10,200 CP) - With Sammy Watkins (hamstring) sidelined, Hardman should be in for more work and provides a nice high-upside play as he steps into a larger role. Last week, he played a season-high 69% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs, and he ranks second on the team with an average depth of target of 9.6 yards on the season, behind only Tyreek Hill ($10,000). Hardman only hauled in 2-of-3 targets but had 50 yards against the Raiders. He didn’t find the end zone in Week 5 but did score touchdowns in Week 3 and Week 4. He has at least 7.0 DKFP in four straight contests since a quiet Week 1, and I think the second-year speedster should get a big bump in usage with Watkins out. He is a little more boom-or-bust than a more traditional CP play, but his more affordable salary in that spot allows you to stack up your flex spots.


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FLEX Plays

Patrick Mahomes ($13,000) - Mahomes has been excellent this season and is averaging just under 300 yards per game. He has tossed 13 touchdowns and just one interception while also running for a pair of scores. The Bills have allowed the second-most DKFP to QBs so far this season, but their defense is getting healthier, so they will probably be better than that moving forward. However, Mahomes has proven that he can rise to pretty much any challenge and should be able to put together another good performance on the road in primetime. He’s the safest play on the board and comes with loads of upside. His salary is set well, though, making you really squeeze the rest of your roster to build around him.

Travis Kelce ($10,400) - Kelce and Tyreek Hill ($10,000) have identical 18.7 DKFP averages through the first five games of the season for the Chiefs, but I prefer the TE due to volume and matchup in this contest. Kelce has 46 targets on the season, compared to 35 targets for Hill. Hill has more touchdowns with five than Kelce with three, but he will also have to deal with White and a solid Bills secondary. Kelce gets a better matchup, since the Bills have let TEs score the third-most DKFP per game so far this season. They allowed two touchdowns to Jonnu Smith last week and 11 catches with a touchdown to the Raiders’ TEs the week before. Even Mike Gesicki had a big game with eight catches, 130 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 2, so Kelce should have plenty of room to operate over the middle. He’s still a very expensive option, which is the only reason I don’t have him quite a good enough option to be one of my Captain’s Picks.

Gabriel Davis ($4,800) - The Bills listed John Brown ($5,800; knee) as questionable for this matchup after he was able to put in full practices Thursday and Friday but was limited on Saturday. Even if Brown is active, he could give up some work to Davis, who is coming off a season-high 72 snaps, which was 100% of Buffalo’s offensive plays against the Titans. The rookie fourth-round pick from UCF drew a season-high nine targets as a result of the expanded workload and hauled in five catches for 58 yards and 10.8 DKFP. In his work this year, Davis is second on the team with an average depth of target of 13.3 yards, only behind Brown’s 14.0 yards per target. If the Bills have to air it out to keep up with the Chiefs, Davis could end up a great value play.


Fades

Devin Singletary ($7,200) - Singletary has established himself as the lead back in Buffalo, but had a rough game last week against the Titans. He only managed 2.3 yards per carry with 11 carries for 25 yards and finished with a season-low 4.3 DKFP. On top of that down performance, rookie Zack Moss ($1,600) is expected to make his first appearance since Week 2, which could result in more of a timeshare and a reduced workload for Singletary.

Cole Beasley ($6,200) - Beasley has been efficient this year, catching 24-of-30 targets through his five games, but his average depth of target is under 8.0 yards. With Davis emerging as a deep option and Stefon Diggs ($9,600) drawing plenty of attention as the WR1, Beasley could be left with few targets and limited production. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-fewest DKFP to WRs so far this season, and the secondary has been good overall. Beasley does have some PPR value, but I love the higher ceiling you can get with Hardman and Davis at similar price points.


THE OUTCOME

The Chiefs have so many great options in their offense, and the Bills’ defense hasn’t really gelled just yet. For DraftKings Showdown purposes, Allen, Davis and some of the Bills make for logical plays based on their salaries, but the Chiefs have more options at the skill spots in addition to a much more reliable and proven QB. I don’t see the Chiefs dropping back-to-back games and still think the Bills have a ways to go before becoming a legitimate contender.

Final Score: Kansas City 34, Buffalo 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (KC vs BUF)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.