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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Lakers vs. Heat Showdown on October 2

Matt LaMarca preps you for Friday’s 9 p.m. ET Game 2 contest between the Lakers and Heat with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

2020 NBA Finals - Miami Heat v Los Angeles Lakers Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Friday features Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat at 9 p.m. ET. The Lakers were able to secure a comfortable 116-98 win in Game 1, and the Heat also sustained a few huge injuries in that contest.

With that in mind, the Lakers are now massive favorites to win Game 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They’re currently favored by 9.5 points, and they’re -500 on the moneyline.

Can the Lakers move to 2-0 or can the Heat overcome adversity and make this a series? Let’s take a look at some of the DraftKings Showdown options for Game 2 to get your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups started.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (MIA vs LAL)

DraftKings Showdown Strategy

Los Angeles Lakers (113.0 implied points)

(NOTE: All salaries are in the utility spot unless otherwise indicated.)

The Lakers’ dynamic duo of LeBron James ($13,000) and Anthony Davis ($12,200) came through in a big way in Game 1. James finished with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists – resulting in 58.25 DKFP – while Davis led the team with 34 points and 59.25 DKFP. These guys have dominated virtually all season, and it doesn’t look like the Heat are going to have any answer for them.

Miami ranked just 26th during the regular season in terms of opponent FG% at the rim, and now they’ll likely be playing without Bam Adebayo ($10,400). He was easily their best rim protector during the regular season, so LeBron and AD should be able to feast in the paint once again.

Both players have been priced up aggressively for this contest, but there is a little bit of value available for the Heat. These two players have easily the highest ceilings on the slate, so I can’t imagine building a lineup without either of them.

The more important question is whether one should be in the Captain spot. That’s going to eat up a lot of your available salary cap, but I still think it’s probably the right decision.

After the “big two”, things get a little more questionable for the Lakers’ rotation. Rajon Rondo ($6,600) is their next most expensive option, but he’s scored 18.25 DKFP or fewer in each of his past two games. Rondo is one of the best producers in this range on a per-minute basis, but his playing time has dwindled a bit recently. I’m fine with fading Rondo in order to fit in as many studs as possible.

Danny Green ($4,000) is a proven big-game producer, and he came through for the Lakers in Game 1. He finished with 28.0 DKFP thanks to 11 points, four rebounds, one assist, two steals, and three blocks. The defensive stats are a bit fluky, but Green is still an interesting option at his price tag given his current workload and ability to shoot from the perimeter.

Dwight Howard ($3,600) remained in the starting lineup for Game 1 of this series, and he’ll be a solid value play if he draws another start in Game 2. Howard has averaged over 1.00 DKFP per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.

That said, the Lakers don’t necessarily need Howard now that Adebayo is likely out. They could go small with Davis at center, which would open up more playing time for Kyle Kuzma ($4,400) and Markieff Morris ($3,200). Of the two, Kuzma is the better bet for more minutes, but Morris is cheaper and contribute more in some of the peripheral categories.

Finally, don’t forget about Alex Caruso ($3,800). He’s become an important part of the Lakers’ rotation and has scored at least 20.0 DKFP in two straight games.

Miami Heat (103.5 implied points)

The Heat will have to overcome injuries not just to Adebayo, but to Goran Dragic ($7,000) as well. Adebayo was their best all-around player during the playoffs, while Dragic has led the team in both usage rate in scoring. Both players are listed as doubtful for Game 2, and the Heat will be facing an uphill battle if both players are ultimately ruled out.

That said, it does open some value with the rest of the roster from a fantasy perspective.

Jimmy Butler ($9,800) will likely be asked to pick up most of the scoring slack. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.9% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.17 DKFP per minute.

Butler is significantly cheaper than Davis and LeBron on today’s slate, so he might be the most logical Captain choice if you want to jam all three into your lineup. Going with Butler at Captain and the other two at utility leaves you with an average of approximately $3,400 for your remaining three lineup spots. That is doable on today’s slate.

Tyler Herro ($8,600) is another member of the Heat who will likely be asked to increase his scoring output in Game 2. However, he isn’t nearly as capable as Butler in terms of producing in the peripheral categories, and he’s not that much cheaper than him. I’m prioritizing Butler over Herro if I’m paying up for someone on the Heat.

Jae Crowder ($7,400) and Duncan Robinson ($5,800) have also seen price bumps for Game 2. Both players should see a slight bump in playing time if Dragic and Adebayo are ruled out, but they don’t profile as the type of guys who will see a huge boost in usage. They are perimeter-oriented players, so they need someone else to create looks for them.

This price range is where the Heat become interesting. Kendrick Nunn ($5,000) came off the bench in Game 1 and finished with 28.25 DKFP over 20 minutes. He will likely move into the starting lineup in place of Dragic, and Nunn started all 67 regular season games for the Heat this season. He averaged 25.77 DKFP in those contests, and he increased his production to 29.23 DKFP in games without Dragic.

Andre Iguodala ($3,400) is clearly on the downside of his career, but the Heat have leaned on him a little harder during the latter stages of the playoffs. He’s logged at least 25.4 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 24.25 DKFP in each of his past two. That makes him underpriced at his current salary.

Kelly Olynyk ($3,000) might be the best pure value on today’s slate. He should replace Adebayo in the starting lineup, and Olynyk is a very capable producer on a per-minute basis. He scored 19.75 DKFP over just 18 minutes in Game 1, so he should provide excellent value if he can see 20+ minutes on today’s slate.

Finally, Solomon Hill ($2,600) and Derrick Jones Jr. ($2,200) could have some appeal as pure punt plays if you’re looking to load up on studs. Both players figure to see some court time today, and they don’t need to do much to pay off their current salaries.

The Outcome

This slate sets up perfectly for a stars-and-scrubs approach. I would love to get one of the Lakers’ big two in the Captain spot, but Jimmy Butler ($14,700 CP) is a solid consolation prize. Regardless, getting all three in your lineup should be a priority. After that, it just comes down to pairing them with the right values. Kelly Olynyk looks like the best choice, but there are plenty of choose from.

Final Score: Lakers 115, Heat 102

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (MIA vs LAL)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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