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DraftKings Sportsbook NFL Week 4: Football Betting Insights and Analysis

Matt Meiselman give analysis for Week 4 betting insights including line movement, betting analysis and themes.

Even with all of the turmoil of this NFL season, a lot seems to have settled down heading into Week 4. There’s as little betting line movement this week as there has been in any other, at least in terms of the point spreads, and most of the NFL’s best teams are big favorites as expected. Nonetheless, there’s still plenty to break down for this week’s DraftKings Sportsbook betting insights and analysis, and there will be more coming up in the weekly update here on Sunday morning.


DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.


EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.


Sunday Line Movement Update

  • With news that Michael Thomas is out, the Lions have moved from Friday’s +4 down to +3. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the total has also fallen quite a bit, and is now down to 52.5 after reaching 54.5 a few days ago.
  • Even with the public roughly split on the game, the Colts have moved to the key number of 3 against the Bears, from -2.5 up to -3 and seemingly still trending upward. The total has fallen too, which likely either is due to potential inclement weather or a lack of trust in Nick Foles.
  • Jaguars betting has picked up steam since Friday, as they’ve moved from +3 to +1.5. This comes with fairly even spread betting as well.
  • Even with a larger share of bettors backing the Texans, the Vikings have moved from +4.5 to +3.5 since Friday.
  • One of the more notable late line moves of the week is the Dolphins, who have now fallen from +6.5 to +5 even with almost everyone siding with the Seahawks (see chart below).
  • With Cam Newton ruled out for Sunday Monday’s game against the Chiefs, the Patriots have gone from 7-point underdogs up to +11. Brian Hoyer is expected to start.

Betting Splits Breakdown

Week 4 is another fairly standard week, with lopsided bets and handle percentages on most of the favorites. This even includes teams who have struggled recently — particularly the Ravens, Cardinals, Cowboys and Saints. All four of those teams are facing weaker opponents, and DraftKings bettors seem to be expecting bounce back games in all four of those cases.

The most notable exception to this trend is the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off of an incredibly impressive road victory at Baltimore against the Ravens. The Chiefs are the preferred bet for their home game this week against the Patriots, but only by a slim margin in terms of bets (60%), while the handle is split down the middle at 50/50. The logic for this seems rather obvious, as it’s rare to get any Patriots team as a full touchdown underdog. Even though the Chiefs are a popular bet, the Patriots have to be pretty enticing as well.


How the Lines are Moving

Totals

  • Jaguars/Bengals (44.5 to 49)
  • Chargers/Buccaneers (45.5 to 43)
  • Bills/Raiders (49.5 to 52.5)
  • Eagles/49ers (43 to 46)

For the second-straight week the biggest total jump is in the Jaguars game, even though it didn’t really work out for over bettors last week against the Dolphins. About two-thirds of the bets are on the over for the Jaguars vs. Bengals game this week, which isn’t anything especially abnormal, but the total has gone up by 4.5 points. Jaguars games have definitely been erratic in 2020, but their offense has actually been solid, ranking seventh in DVOA. Their defense is 27th overall and 32nd against the pass, so it’s easy to see why bettors like overs in their games.

The Eagles-49ers and Bills-Raiders games are two of the more popular over bets this week as well, and their totals have gone up a few points each as a result. On the opposite side it looks like there’s just one game this week with a substantially falling total, and that's the Buccaneers-Chargers game where the total has fallen from 45.5 to 43. Eighty-five percent of the total bets are actually on the over for that game, but only 60% of the handle is in that direction, so it looks like the larger wagers are coming in on the under and driving the total downward.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.