Welp, that got out of hand quickly.
It looked like the scrappy Heat were going to make this a series, judging by their fast start in Game 1. Then the Lakers went to a small ball lineup, dominating the remainder of the game, and Miami suffered crucial injuries, which has it looking like Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo will miss some time. Regardless of your predictions entering the series, the script has now flipped — pretty obviously with the Lakers are now -1667 favorites to win the series.
Here’s what jumps out to me in Game 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This is my strongest play in this article by far. If you bet one thing in this game, this should be it, and if you’re betting other things in this game, you should put less weight behind them. Usually I would provide some numbers to back a play like this up, but it’s not even worth getting into. Assuming Dragic and Bam are out, this Heat team is losing two massive contributors. While Jimmy Butler (on a sore ankle) will work to keep his squad competitive, the pieces stepping into major minutes just won’t work the same. The minutes Dragic and Bam typically fill will now fall to the likes of Kendrick Nunn and Kelly Olynyk. Maybe Tyler Herro steps into the starting five, but he was a whopping minus-35 in Game 1. The Lakers got into that 13-point hole playing big to start the game, but once they switched to the small-ball lineup, they won the final 18 minutes of the first half by 30. Miami is in deep trouble.
To be honest, Kendrick Nunn is the most intriguing player to find Game 2 props on for me. He came on in relief of Dragic and dropped a quick 18 points in 20 minutes in Game 1, but DKSB doesn’t have a number on him yet. If a prop comes out, I may add a play on him. As for the Miami props actually on the board, I think Crowder and Herro stand to see a boost in minutes with the two key pieces missing, and the game script sets up for the Heat to be launching from deep if trailing big. Crowder went 4-for-7 from downtown in Game 1 in just 25 minutes, while Herro could only connect on 2-of-8 in 30 minutes. I’d expect both to see more attempts in this game, so lean to the overs.
I don’t see anybody else leading this game in scoring. Butler (+600) is the next favorite, and the only other logical choice. But if the Lakers roll, and we see the dominance from these guys like we did on Wednesday, we can lock in a profit by betting them both. LeBron went for just 25 in Game 1, and we saw the matchup for AD looking prime in his 34-point performance. Without Bam, it leaves pretty much nobody to cover him. I’d bet this to win on AD leading the game and break even on LeBron leading, but you can weigh it to slightly win on both. Obviously sets up for a double loss if someone else leads the game.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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