After a pretty chalky Week 6, the pricing feels like it really tightens up on us in Week 7. The mid-priced plays at WR should help build a lot of lineups this week, with a real lack of value available that allow us to roster too many studs. Here’s what jumps out in my first look at Week 7.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks ($7,100) — Easy to look at Russell Wilson ($8,000) coming out of the bye as the most expensive QB on the slate, but Russ came back to Earth (although still playing very well) in the last two games before the bye. Arizona has been pretty average in limiting QB production, ranking 19th. Murray’s about as safe a fantasy play as you can find right now, averaging over 28.0 DKFP, with no fewer than 24.0 DKFP in any game. Murray’s legs are what help make him so safe, averaging 61.7 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game. Seattle ranks dead last in DKFP per game allowed to QBs.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans ($7,000) — Rodgers was atrocious in Week 6 against Tampa, but it sets up the ultimate bounce-back spot at a discount. Houston ranks just 26th in DKFP allowed to QBs, and its been shredded by whoever is fortunate enough to draw this matchup each week. Rodgers will have some revenge on his mind, and is in prime position to go off for a bigger game like we saw the previous week against Atlanta.
Kyle Allen, Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,200) — Matthew Stafford ($6,500) and Justin Herbert ($6,400) are both in awesome matchups this week if you’re looking for some savings, but there’s also the chance to go all the way down for Allen. The Cowboys have been historically bad on defense, as everyone is aware of after their MNF showing. Allen was solid in Week 6, putting up 18.0 DKFP against the Giants, and is in as good a spot as he’ll be all season.
Other Options: Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Justin Herbert ($6,400)
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Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers ($7,900) — Kamara failed to score for the first time this season in Week 5, and with Michael Thomas ($7,600) finally expected back, Kamara could see his role in the passing game shrink a bit. But he’s still the cheapest we’ve seen him since Week 1, and gets a matchup against a putrid Carolina rush defense. The Panthers rank dead-last in DKFP allowed to the RB position, and now face a back in Kamara averaging over 30.0 DKFP.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans ($7,200) — More bounce-back narrative for the Packers. Houston’s defense hasn’t stopped anybody but the Jaguars yet, and have been gashed on the ground just as badly through the air. The Texans rank 27th in DKFP allowed to RBs, and Jones comes in down $400 from last week due to a bad game (although his still put up 13.1 DKFP). Jones showed us a safe floor last week, and we know the massive ceiling he brings in a favorable matchup like this.
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900) — The Chargers are coming off a bye, but will still be without Austin Ekeler (hamstring). Joshua Kelley ($5,100) was expected to take over the majority of the backfield work in Ekeler’s first full game on the sidelines, but wound up with just 29 yards on 11 carries. Jackson, who’s had his moments in past seasons, came in and stole the show, finishing with 71 rushing yards on 15 carries and five receptions for 23 yards (14.4 DKFP). If Jackson can get anywhere near another 20 touches against this Jacksonville defense, he’s significantly underpriced for his combination of role and matchup.
Other Options: DeAndre Swift ($5,400), David Johnson ($5,300), Zack Moss ($4,200)
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions ($7,100) — Do I want to roster an even more expensive WR to pair with the QBs I wrote up? Of course, but DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200) and Davante Adams ($7,900) are expensive. I’d much prefer to use that type of salary on Kamara, and target some terrific WR plays that are a bit more affordable. Julio finally looked healthy last week, shredding Minnesota for a 8-137-2 line (36.7 DKFP). Now he faces a Detroit secondary that ranks 26th in DKFP allowed to WRs.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons ($6,700) — On the other side of the matchup, Golladay still hasn’t let us down since making his season debut. Kenny G has been extremely consistent, scoring at least 16.2 DKFP in each of his three games, and even with a small spike in salary, he brings a very high ceiling into a road game in Atlanta. The Falcons have been the third-worst team against WRs through six weeks.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans ($5,700) — Without any real deep value at WR, let’s just go right back to Claypool. I don’t care how square it is, Claypool is rapidly turning into an obvious WR1, but is still priced in the middle of the pack. Claypool has 16 touches in the last two games, which he’s managed to turn into 197 yards and five touchdowns. Keep rolling him out there against a Tennessee defense that ranks 28th in DKFP allowed to WRs. The Dionte Johnson ($4,200) injury is meaningless at this point.
Other Options: A.J. Brown ($6,300), Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Tee Higgins ($5,300), Christian Kirk ($4,900)
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos ($6,300) — What a mess the TE position is. You’d have to make a ton of sacrifice to your lineup in order to pay up at the position, which I don’t recommend doing. Kelce has an average matchup, has been super consistent, and is coming off two very strong games.
Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000) — Even the value is awful at TE, making it tough to make a decision. Hooper isn’t even that cheap, but he has a very favorable matchup, and has come alive over the last three games, scoring double-digit DKFP in each. It’d be great to punt this week considering how Trey Burton worked out last week, but I don’t see the play yet. We desperately need one, though.
Other Options: Dalton Schultz ($3,900), Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Cleveland Browns D/ST ($2,800) at Cincinnati Bengals — The Bengals have had their issues this season, and now have to deal with a strong Browns’ defensive line. Good upside for some sacks and turnovers here against a rookie QB.
Washington Football Team D/ST ($2,500) vs. Dallas Cowboys — Will the Cowboys improve off their embarrassing MNF loss? They have to, but there’s no changing the state of the offensive line. It just doesn’t have any bodies. Washington has a very strong defensive line that should be able to put a lot of pressure on the QB. We know how that goes.
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