Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) – Chase Claypool ($5,700) – JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,500) – A.J. Brown ($6,300)
The Titans defense is starting to show some cracks against the pass, as they’ve now allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the year. Tennessee’s issues stem from both weakness in the secondary, but also a pass rush that isn’t getting pressure and ranks second-last in adjusted sack-rate. This is great news for Ben Roethlisberger who has been efficient to start the year, posting a 69% completion rating and 109.1 passer rating.
Roethlisberger’s ability to sit in the pocket this week should mean great things for his receivers, too, as Chase Claypool and his massive 19.7 yards per reception will be going up against a secondary that’s now allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and fifth-most touchdowns to the position. This could easily be the spot where JuJu Smith-Schuster comes back to life (for a game anyways) as Titans slot corner Kristian Fulton is allowing a 91% completion rate against right now — worst in the league — while Schuster is converting 85% of his targets into catches.
On the other side of the ball, running things back here with A.J. Brown seems like a play that could correlate well if the Steelers offense does dominate. Pittsburgh (+1.5, O/U 50.5) ranks first in defensive DVOA and has allowed the fewest DKFP against to opposing RBs, but have been far more lackluster in coverage allowing the ninth-most DKFP to the WR position per game thus far. Corey Davis ($4,800) could also be a solid target here if you’re looking to expand your reach from this game as he’s due to return from the Covid-19 list and was averaging over six targets per game before his absence.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Matthew Stafford ($6,500) – Kenny Golladay ($6,700) – Calvin Ridley ($7,300)
In this week’s edition of “stack the team playing the Falcons,” we have the Detroit Lions (ATL -2.5, O/U 55.5). While it’s concerning that Detroit only ranks 22nd in pass attempts per game the matchup here for Kenny Golladay and Matthew Stafford means they likely won’t need 40-attempts to go off. Golladay is going to have a nearly four-inch height advantage over either Isaiah Oliver or Kendall Sheffield, who have both allowed over 70% of the passes thrown against them to be completed. On that note, while Marvin Jones Jr. ($4,400) has been an outright bust this year, this could be the spot where gets off the mat for a week too. Jones is still second on the team in targets, and with Detroit openly mentioning that they want to get him more involved soon, his price makes him a solid GPP target as we know he has multiple-touchdown upside given his history with Stafford.
On the flip side, look for Calvin Ridley to potentially rise up here again and be the high scoring receiver for the Falcons — after ceding that title to Julio Jones ($7,100) for a week. Ridley should see lots of rookie Jeff Okoduh in coverage who is allowing a ton of big plays and has the third-worst yards per route covered mark in the league. Detroit’s seventh-worst in guarding against the WR position so anyone of Ridley, Julio Jones or even slot-man Russell Gage ($4,400) could be good run-back options with a Lions stack.
Kyle Allen, Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,200)
Allen actually had quite a productive Sunday last week, throwing the ball 42-times against the Giants, while posting a 72% completion rate and two touchdowns, with one interception. The Giants have been sneaky good on defense at times this season, so Allen’s efficiency last week should be noted coming into a game with the Cowboys, who have allowed the seventh-most DKFP to opposing QBs per game this year. Allen’s facing a Dallas defense who ranks just 21st in adjusted sack rate and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the six games they’ve played in 2020.
Price here is obviously a huge factor, but with Allen finding better connections last week with both Terry McLaurin ($5,800, seven receptions on 12 targets) and Logan Thomas ($3,500, three receptions and a touchdown on four targets) there’s some pretty legitimate upside in play for stacking purposes too in a game which features a very close point spread (Wash -0.5, O/U 46) and two of the leagues worst secondaries. Allen carries obvious risk, but seems very in play here as a cheap QB option for Week 7.
Just Missed: Justin Herbert ($6,400)
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900)
Jackson garnered a surprising 20-touches in the Chargers first game sans-Austin Ekeler, seeing six targets from QB Justin Herbert ($6,400) which was third-most on the team. While many expected rookie Joshua Kelley ($5,100) to step into a larger role, it was basically Jackson who stepped up and took over the same role that Austin Ekeler had been playing before going down with injury. Ekeler had also been averaging right around 20-touches per game — and was averaging over 15-DKFP per game — but was going off between $6,500 to $7,000 in the DraftKings pricing structure.
It might be foolish to say Jackson will necessarily just step in and reproduce what Ekeler had accomplished prior to going out, but the third-year back did look explosive against a tough Saints rush defense and gets a great matchup this week against Jacksonville (+7.5, O/U 49), who has now allowed six touchdowns to the RB position over the last three games and the seventh-most receptions to the position, overall. Regardless of how you feel about him as a player, Jackson seems destined for a serious role in this offense until Ekeler comes back and is way under-priced here given the opportunity and matchup on the table this week.
Just Missed: David Johnson ($5,300)
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals ($7,200)
Metcalf has been making it more and more apparent that he’s on the verge of becoming something special for both fantasy and real-life purposes in the NFL. The Seahawks receiver leads the league with a ridiculous 22.5 yards per reception this year and has started to take over as the main pass catcher on the Seahawks, seeing 25-targets over the last three games, to Tyler Lockett’s ($6,600) 22. Metcalf’s price is at all-time highs here but with DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200) likely to garner lots of ownership on the other side of this game, Metcalf should play well as something of a contrarian pay-up target this week.
Arizona (+3.5, O/U 56) hasn’t allowed a ton of passing yards on the season, but a lot of that has been a byproduct of their opponents as they’ve now faced the Joe Flacco-led Jets, the Andy Dalton-led Cowboys and a Dwyane Haskins-led Washington Football Team. Metcalf will have a massive speed (4.33 vs. 4.50 seconds) and size advantage (229lbs vs. 196lbs) on the now 30-year-old Dre Kirkpatrick and with his team projected for a league-high 29.75 points this week, targeting him as a pay-up option in GPPs here makes sense. He’s a good stacking/correlation piece for anyone intent on building their rosters around this game.
Just Missed: Terry McLaurin ($5,800)
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)
At a position where few players outside of the top two or three elite plays can be counted on for consistent production each week, Henry is starting to stick out with his recent usage. The Chargers TE has now averaged 6.75 targets per game over his last four outings and is clearly being used as a weekly part of the game plan for Los Angeles and their rookie QB Justin Herbert ($6,400). Henry’s DFS production doesn’t necessarily jump off the page, but his opponents have to be taken into account here too. The Chargers (-7.5, O/U 49) have faced top-tier defenses in each of their last two outings but get a big reprieve in Week 7 when they face the Jaguars off a bye.
Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most DKFP to the TE position, per game, this year and allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to the position, overall. Jacksonville Safety Josh Jones is allowing a 93% completion rate when targeted this year while Henry is being targeted on 21% of his routes by his QB, the seventh-best rate in the league at his position. With his QB playing better every week and the first soft matchup for the Herbert/Henry pairing on the season, this game screams breakout for the moderately priced TE.
Just Missed: Logan Thomas ($3,500)
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers ($3,200)
The Saints DST comes into this week off a bye and gets a Carolina offense that ranks 20th in points per game. New Orleans (-7.5, O/U 51) has had its issues in the secondary this year, allowing three or more passing touchdowns in four straight games, but is likely getting DE Marcus Davenport, and DBs Marshawn Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, all back this week. If all three start, this game would mark the first time since Week 1 that the Saints had both Jenkins and Lattimore start a game together.
New Orleans has still been getting a ton of pressure even with the injuries in the secondary, and rank sixth this year in adjusted sack-rate. The Panthers offensive line has weakened over their last couple of starts, and with the Saints likely able to run the ball at will on offense — against a bad Carolina rush defense — it could allow big opportunities for the Saints rushers to tee off here on the mildly mobile Teddy Bridgewater ($5,800). New Orleans looks like a solid pay-up candidate with low ownership likely and plenty of upside in GPPs.
Just missed: Washington Football Team ($2,500)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.