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Fantasy Football Picks: Giants vs. Eagles DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Giants and the Eagles with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Last week, due to COVID complications we didn’t have a Thursday Night Football game. Usually, as they say, absence makes the heart grow fonder; however this may be a rare case where that idiom doesn’t apply. If we’re all being 100% honest, I think NFL fans would almost rather take a second week off than have to watch any more of the wretched NFC East on National TV.

Fortunately, we all have DFS to help us get through this primetime slog. We’ve got the one-win Giants and the one-win Eagles. Let’s dive into it from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.6M Thursday Night Showdown [$400K to 1st] (NYG vs PHI)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Carson Wentz ($16,200 CP) - It hasn’t been aesthetically pleasing and a lot of it’s happened in garbage time, but Wentz has actually been a decent DFS asset in 2020. In fact, across his past four starts, the quarterback is averaging 23.9 DKFP with his ability to scramble playing a huge role. Due somewhat to poor offensive line play and somewhat to a lack of skill-position weapons, Wentz has registered 162 yards and three rushing touchdowns dating back to the beginning of Week 3. With Miles Sanders (knee) ruled out and the diminutive Boston Scott ($8,400) his replacement, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz is once again Philadelphia’s No. 1 option at the goal line. Aside from that, he’s simply going up against a Giants D/ST ($4,400) that ranks 23rd by DVOA versus the pass, despite facing the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen and Nick Mullens so far this season.

Boston Scott ($12,600 CP) - It’s tough to determine just how involved Scott will be as the primary running back for the Eagles, but if we build off of what the 25-year-old’s role was towards the end of 2019, it’s hard to not envision him seeing somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-to-20 touches this evening. Across Philadelphia’s final four games of last season — with Sanders active — Scott saw at least six targets each and every week. He also saw his snap share jump to 74% in a Week 17 contest against these very same Giants after Sanders was forced to leave early due to injury. Scott proceeded to rack up 138 scrimmage yards, three touchdowns and 35.8 DKFP. Obviously, the likelihood of that happening again is slim, yet it does provide us with an estimate of what Scott’s ceiling might be heading into this matchup.


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FLEX Plays

Devonta Freeman ($7,400) - As has been the case most of the past half-decade, the Eagles are not a team that you really want to be running the ball against. Coming into Week 7, Philadelphia’s allowed a paltry 3.44 adjusted line yards per opponent attempt — the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. As such, they’ve surrendered a 50-yard rushing performance just two times through their first six contests. Still, we’re sort of at a place where matchup doesn’t matter for Freeman, especially with the single-game slate. Freeman’s workload has increased every week since he signed with New York, culminating in the veteran logging a 72.9% snap share and 19 touches in last Sunday’s 20-19 victory over Washington. While I wouldn’t go so far to say that this will be as positive a script for the Giants to establish the run, I also don’t see this game getting too out of hand in either direction. Freeman should flirt with 20 touches and that’s not a level of volume I can overlook at this mid-tier price.

DeSean Jackson ($5,800) - Travis Fulgham ($8,800) — who has 23 targets since Week 5 and has scored a touchdown in three-straight games — is probably the safer play, but the salary flexibility Jackson’s depressed price tag provides is certainly intriguing. We haven’t seen the veteran wideout since September, as Jackson’s dealt with a hamstring issue, yet it’s worth noting that the 33-year-old saw a combined 16 targets in the Eagles’ first two games of 2020. It’s also worth noting that Zach Ertz (ankle), Dallas Goedert (ankle) and first-round pick Jalen Reagor (thumb) were active for those two contests, meaning Jackson registered that large target share on a much healthier roster than Philadelphia currently boasts. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into Thursday night and I think he’s viable.

Richard Rodgers ($5,000) - Speaking of the Eagles’ injury woes, Rodgers will be the squad’s starting tight end this evening. That’s probably an important thing to understand, as Philadelphia comes into tonight’s matchup leading the NFL in TE target share (33%) and in raw tight end targets (74). I’d be hesitant to suggest that that exact level of volume will continue without the likes of Ertz and Goedert available, but Rodgers did show the ability to be a useful fantasy asset back in 2015 with the Packers. His $5K price tag seems fair and I believe he’ll be a viable mid-tier option against an underwhelming Giants defense. Heck, if you really want to get weird, Jason Croom ($200) will probably get a couple targets, as the Eagles do love to utilize 12 personnel.


Fades

Daniel Jones ($10,400) - I just can’t do it. While something like a league-low 1.5% touchdown rate is bound to regress sooner or later, Jones has consistently disappointed as a DFS asset. Take last week’s game against Washington as a perfect example. Despite 74 rushing yards, the sophomore was still unable to exceed even 15.0 DKFP in New York’s narrow win. With an average of 0.33 fantasy points per drop back, no qualified QB in the NFL has been less efficient in 2020 than the former first-round pick and I don’t see that changing on Thursday, though the Eagles do rank just 27th in pass defense DVOA.


THE OUTCOME

Surprisingly, the Giants are 3-0 ATS on the road this season. That’s likely why we’ve seen the line in this game drop throughout the week on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Still, though there isn’t much evidence to back this up in 2020, I do believe the Eagles are the better team and should come out victorious on Thursday. I just wouldn’t be expecting a shootout.

Final Score: Philadelphia 24, New York 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.6M Thursday Night Showdown [$400K to 1st] (NYG vs PHI)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.