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NFL Week 7 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 7 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

Week 7 in the NFL is another semi-chaotic one, with the new scenario of the Cardinals-Seahawks and Raiders-Buccaneers games flipping time slots. For the games that are staying in place, there are a few notable line movements and trends, but for the most part the lines are fairly stagnant. Much of this is sure to change by the weekend and, as always, you can check back in on Sunday for more updates, betting insights, and analysis from DraftKings Sportsbook.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • The 49ers moved from +3.5 to +2 earlier this week, but the spread has taken a u-turn and the Patriots are now back up to -3.
  • The Lions were +2.5 for their road game against the Falcons as of Friday, but that spread has since shifted dramatically and the Lions are actually now favored at -1.
  • With Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ruled out, the Panthers have moved from +7.5 to +6.5 in New Orleans against the Saints.
  • Even with most of the betting action on the Bills side of the game, the Jets have improved from +12 to +10 approaching kickoff.
  • Weather continues to play a role for the upcoming game in Denver, as the Broncos are now just +7 against the Chiefs and the total is all the way down to 44. These numbers initially opened at +9.5 and 48.

Betting Splits Breakdown

In Weeks 5 and 6 we saw DraftKings bettors going against some of the biggest favorites, but that isn’t really the case for Week 7. The Buffalo Bills (-12), the Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) and the Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) are among the teams getting the largest shares of both bets and handle, but there are a couple of notable exceptions to this trend. For the Monday Night Football game, the Chicago Bears are actually an extremely popular bet as 5.5-point road underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, and this appears to be a direct result of the Rams poor performance this past Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers.

There’s also one game this week where the bets and handle percentages diverge, and that’s with the New Orleans Saints, where Michael Thomas is reportedly unlikely to play again this week after suffering yet another setback in practice. Thomas initially missed a few weeks with an ankle injury — then missed Week 5 for disciplinary reasons — and was on track to return after a bye before he sustained his latest hamstring injury. The larger wagers are on the Carolina Panthers and it only makes sense that this is directly tied to Thomas’ health.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Washington Football Team (+2.5 to -1)

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5 to +2)

Tennessee Titans (+1.5 to -1)

Totals

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (48 to 46)

Spreads started to move quickly when the Week 7 lines first hit the board, with DraftKings bettors reacting to the results of Week 6. Even though the Washington Football Team lost to the New York Giants, their opponent looked far worse in their most recent game. The Dallas Cowboys were blown out at home by the Arizona Cardinals, and the odds seem to have corrected almost entirely for this outcome. Most of the bets are actually on Dallas, but the spread has still moved in Washington’s favor.

The San Francisco 49ers were impressive in their Sunday Night win against the Los Angeles Rams, while the New England Patriots lost at home to the Denver Broncos. Spread betting is fairly even for the upcoming Patriots-49ers game, but the results of last week seem to be moving the line here, too. As for the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers, both teams are surging as of late, so it’s not nearly as clear why we’re seeing the odds shift for this game.

The only game with a substantial move on the total for Week 7 is the game in Denver, and it looks to have everything to do with weather. The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will be bracing for temperatures below 25 degrees, with some snow and wind on the table, as well. The total has already dropped by two points and it could fall even further if the forecast worsens.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.