Welcome back for Week 7 as we run down my top five NFL QB-WR stacks for DraftKings fantasy football this week. Let’s get to it.
For the uninitiated, the concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your DraftKings fantasy football lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main DraftKings DFS slate.
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5. Justin Herbert ($6,400)/Mike Williams ($4,700), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Herbert has been my favorite revelation so far this season. The guy is fun to watch. He still makes mistakes, but he carries himself with poise and confidence, and has no hesitation throwing it deep or into a tight window. The rookie has only started four games, yet he’s already faced three top-10 defenses (per DVOA) – and scored at least 24 DKFP against each of them. The Jaguars will be his easiest matchup yet by a country mile. They rank last in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed at least 19 DKFP to five of six opposing QBs. Herbert has had success against much more difficult foes and should have no problem keeping it going in Week 7.
This stack gets interesting when deciding who to tap as his running mate between Williams and Keenan Allen ($6,200). Allen was a massive target hog in Weeks 2-4, seeing 40 passes and a 39% target share. However, he got hurt early in Week 5 and has been limited in practice after their Week 6 bye. During his first four seasons, Allen had a reputation for being constantly injured, and while he hasn’t missed a game since 2016, the memory of those early years looms large. Even if he is active Sunday, will L.A. fully incorporate him in a game where they are heavily favored (Chargers -7.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook)? Will they use him more as a decoy and keep him off the field when possible? Williams was excellent after Allen went down, catching five passes for 109 yards and two TDs. Additionally, Williams’ role as a deep threat or red zone target has a ton of DFS upside – at this low salary, he only needs a couple plays to turn a DFS profit even if Allen is 100% healthy and involved.
4. Patrick Mahomes ($7,400)/Tyreek Hill ($6,400), Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Has anything you’ve seen this season made you think less of either Mahomes or Hill? Because in Weeks 1-3, this pair’s average salary was $7,667 and $7,533. Compared to that, they are a combined $1,400 cheaper for this slightly favorable Week 7 matchup. I don’t know about you, but I certainly haven’t seen anything to make me think either of them have regressed in any meaningful way. Mahomes is still dazzling and putting up at least 20 DKFP in every game. Hill’s average target depth has increased, and his catch rate is almost identical to where it was last season.
Hill is coming off a quiet week, but that is in large part due to the Bills’ defensive game plan, which encouraged the Chiefs to run more. Buffalo’s scheme led to only 26 pass attempts from Mahomes, just two more than his career low. Hill, in turn, set a career low for targets in a game where he was healthy and a starter. The Bills lost and gave up 245 yards rushing, so I don’t know if a less-capable defense would have any interest in attempting a similar strategy – and even if Denver wanted to, I doubt they would be able to do so successfully. I suspect Hill will once again be a frequently targeted core element of the Chiefs’ offense moving forward.
The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most DKFP to QBs and the 12th-most DKFP to WRs – not Falcons-level bad, but certainly an inviting matchup. Obviously no one can compare to Hill’s speed, but the Broncos gave up more than 80 yards to Jeff Smith and Scotty Miller, two fast and otherwise mediocre WRs. This could be an excellent matchup for Hill.
3. Matthew Stafford ($6,500)/Kenny Golladay ($6,700), Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Welcome to this week’s installment of “who’s playing Atlanta?”. In the Week 7 edition, we get a double-whammy: not only does this duo get the benefit of playing the Falcons, but they’re a combo I’ve already recommended a few times this season for being underpriced.
Let’s deal with the most important detail first: the Falcons are quite bad. DVOA ranks their pass defense third worst, better than only the semi-pro Jets and the traded-away-multiple-defensive-All-Pros-for-draft-picks Jaguars. They gave up at least 29 DKFP to QBs in five of six games, holding the sixth opponent to a meager 23.8 DKFP. They’ve allowed the most passing yards in the league. They’ve allowed eight different WRs to exceed 90 yards. I’ll stop rostering the QB-WR stack facing the Falcons when it stops being profitable.
DraftKings is showing a little bit more respect for Stafford and Golladay this week than they have so far this season, but their $200 and $500 salary increases are close to the bumps we’ve seen for other players granted the gift of a Falcons matchup. Both players are hurt a little bit by the Lions’ offensive approach, which has them near the bottom in pass attempts per game, but Golladay compensates by being the overwhelming focal point of the passing game – since he returned to the lineup, he has more than twice as many yards and air yards as any other teammate, and he’s the only Lion to see more than five targets in any game with the exception of T.J. Hockenson ($5,100) in Week 3. Golladay and Hockenson account for 55% of Detroit’s red-zone targets, and both have scored twice in the last three games. Golladay has scored at least 16 DKFP in each game, while Stafford topped 17 DKFP in four of his five.
2. Kyler Murray ($7,100)/DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Here is my decision tree for whether to include this Cardinals stack in my player pool each week:
Question number one: Does Arizona play on Sunday’s main slate?
If “Yes” -> Add Murray and Hopkins to the player pool.
That’s it. Salary is almost an afterthought. Opponent only impacts how high these two rank in this article. Hopkins has one of the best boom-rates I’ve ever seen, topping 20 DKFP in 50% of his games over the last four seasons (26 times in 52 games). And Murray’s hit rate is even better – he’s scored at least 24 DKFP in every game this season. In cash games or multi-entry GPPs, this duo has to always be in consideration.
As for their salaries, taken together, these two are still too low. Murray is averaging just 2.8 fewer DKFP than Russell Wilson and has a much easier matchup, yet he’s $900 less? Hopkins is the most expensive WR on the slate, but he’s so successful so frequently that he’s usually worth it.
The matchup against Seattle makes this pairing even more attractive. The Seahawks are getting crushed by WRs – they’ve allowed the most DKFP to the position by far, averaging 63.8 per week, way above the next-highest figure of 49.3. They’ve been the second-most favorable opponent for QBs, and they’ve been particularly friendly to mobile QBs, allowing an average of 6.0 DKFP on the ground despite matchups against Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins.
1. Ryan Tannehill ($6,200)/A.J. Brown ($6,300), Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week, when Tannehill’s salary was $5,900, and I argued that he was a $1,000 discount. Then he went out and threw for 366 yards, four TDs and 33.6 DKFP. Perhaps the salary impact of Week 6’s strong performance is offset by a tough Week 7 matchup, but in that case Tannehill is still way too inexpensive. Tannehill has now topped 16 DKFP in 14 of his 15 starts for the Titans. His running total over those 15 starts, 361.5 DKFP, would have been good for fourth through the 2019 season. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 13 of those games. His QB rating during that span is 117.3. Tannehill is producing as an elite QB option, yet he’s priced more like Andy Dalton ($6,000). Again in Week 7, I believe Tannehill’s salary is at least $1,000 too low.
In Brown’s three games this season, he has dominated the Titans’ passing game, leading in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns while seeing 30% of the team’s air yards share. Going back to their 2019 bye, Brown has scored eight TDs in nine games and has scored more than 22 DKFP in every game where found the end zone.
Pittsburgh is one of the toughest matchups Tannehill has faced since taking over as the Titans’ starter in Week 6 last season, but that’s still not enough to turn me away. The Steelers have allowed at least 18 DKFP to four of their five opposing QBs, each of whom threw for over 250 yards and a TD. Though they have been brutally effective against RBs and TEs, they’ve allowed the ninth-most DKFP to WRs. They have a great defense and a strong secondary, but it’s not stopping most opposing QBs or WRs from racking up fantasy points.
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