You came here to read about some of my picks for the Week 7 NFL slate on DraftKings, right? Cool. Let’s do that instead of a dumb intro that half of you don’t read anyways.
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Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,100 — For a very short period of time on Thursday, it looked as if Murray was not going to be available to us, as the NFL decided to flex this game to 8:20 p.m. ET and thus, remove it from the main slate. DraftKings made the decision to keep it on the slate.
Murray is in such a great spot against a poor Seahawks secondary in what is projecting to be the highest-scoring game on this slate, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. The upside Murray brings with his legs has been on the level of Lamar Jackson at this point, as he’s averaging 61.7 yards and six rushing touchdowns. Murray also has the second-highest red zone carries on the team behind Kenyan Drake ($4,800), with Murray handling 31.4%. His upside was perfectly illustrated last week when he only completed nine of his 24 pass attempts and still scored 28.92 DKFP. While neither quarterback in this game is going to be under-owned, I’ll happily take the $900 discount on Murray.
Other Option – Russell Wilson ($8,000)
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns, $5,500 — Burrow is coming off an impressive outing against the Colts which saw him score 20.72 DKFP despite not throwing a touchdown. Along with his 313 passing yards, Burrow ran for his second rushing touchdown of the season. The Bengals will be without Joe Mixon this week, as they’ll instead rely upon Gio Bernard ($4,500). We all know that Burrow has been having issues working with a clean pocket, as he’s been under pressure on 36% of his 284 dropbacks. The Browns don’t have an overly strong pass rush, which could lead to the more efficient Burrow, who has a 72.3% completion rate and 7.2 YPA when not under pressure.
Other Option – Kyle Allen ($5,200)
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers, $7,900 – I liked Kamara off the bat when first looking at this slate early in the week. Now with the news that the Saints will be without Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas, Kamara could be busier than usual, which is honestly absurd. Kamara is leading the team in overall target share and in the red zone at 26%. He’s handling 44.1% of the red zone rushes as well, making him such a massive threat regardless of the game script. This is even before we get into the fact that the Panthers have been one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing an average of 103 rushing yards and 54.5 receiving yards per game with nine total touchdowns scored. This is a monster spot for Kamara.
Other Options – James Conner ($6,700), Mike Davis ($6,600)
Gio Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns, $4,500 – Bernard is the free square at the running back position this week with Joe Mixon ruled out. While Bernard hasn’t been overly efficient when he’s on the field this season as the RB2, he’s easily in the 15-plus touch territory in this matchup. The Browns haven’t been all that impressive against the run and just allowed the Steelers to go for a total of 131 yards. In all, the Browns are allowing an average of 73 rushing and 42.6 receiving yards while allowing 24 DKFP. With so many players you’re looking to pay up for, Bernard is the way to help make that happen.
Other Options – Antonio Gibson ($5,000), David Johnson ($5,300)
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions, $7,300 – The Falcons receivers are in a great spot against the Lions and my attention will be on Ridley. Even with Julio Jones ($7,100) back in the mix last week, Ridley caught six of his seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown, good for 19 DKFP. This week, he should draw rookie CB Jeffery Okudah in coverage, who has been targeted against 26 times, allowing 19 receptions for 299 yards and 15.7 YPR. The 299 receiving yards allowed is among the most in the league, as he’s tied with Falcons CB Kendall Sheffield for ninth-most. Ridley also has a slight advantage over Jones in the red zone, drawing a 26.7% target share over Jones’ 20%.
Other Options – DK Metcalf ($7,200), Kenny Golladay ($6,700)
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $4,700 – We have a number of really solid cheap wide receivers we can use this week and Williams is one of my favorites, along with Christian Kirk ($4,900). I went into more depth about Kirk over in my NFL Cheat Sheet, so feel free to check that out for more of a breakdown. As for Williams, he’s been the deep target in this offense, drawing eight targets of 20-plus yards. Those eight targets account for 36% of his overall share of 22. Of those, he’s made three catches for 130 yards and scored one of his two touchdowns. Justin Herbert ($6,400) is not afraid to air it out and is averaging these throws 4.5 times per game. Against a Jaguars team that’s allowed an average of 8.56 YPA, the second-highest in the league, Williams could easily outperform his salary in a very good matchup.
Other Options – Christian Kirk ($4,900), Dontrelle Inman ($3,600)
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons, $5,000 – The tight end position is essentially a disaster for Week 7 and not one I would recommend really agonizing over. Hockenson seems to make the most sense if you’re looking to pay up, as the Falcons have easily been one of the worst teams in the league against the position. They’re one of three teams allowing an average of 20-plus DKFP to the position, with 20.8 allowed. The seven touchdowns scored against the Falcons are the most in the league to go with 73 receiving yards and an 81.6% catch rate. Hockenson is second on the Lions with a 15.3% target share overall and leads the team with a 25.8% red zone target share.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($6,300)
Tyler Kroft, Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, $3,100 – I’m thinking if people are paying down at tight end, they may gravitate toward David Njoku ($3,000) now that Austin Hooper has been ruled out. He’s likely going to be in a split, however, with Harrison Bryant ($2,500) so I’m not sure I want to be in a 50/50 situation. Kroft is set to be the TE1 once again for the Bills with Dawson Knox out of the mix. Kroft doesn’t garner a ton of attention but in the two weeks that Knox has been out, Kroft is averaging an 11.8% target share and a 20% in the red zone. He doesn’t have to do much to pay off his salary and quite frankly, we don’t need much against a defense that’s allowing an average of 13.6 DKFP and five touchdowns scored against by this position.
Other Option – James O’Shaughnessy ($2,600)
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,400 – Week 7 brings us two D/ST units that are priced over $4K and I want no part of that. I think the Chargers are a good middle of the road team to use against the Jaguars. Gardner Minshew ($5,900) has thrown five interceptions, has been under pressure on 31% of his dropbacks and has just a 51.6% completion percentage in those scenarios. While the Chargers’ pass rush hovers around league average, the salary works in our favor while also giving us the chance for multiple sacks or a turnover.
Other Option – Green Bay Packers ($3,100)
Washington Football Team D/ST vs. Dallas Cowboys, $2,500 – The Cowboys’ offensive line has allowed Andy Dalton ($6,000) to be under pressure on 30.5% of the dropbacks he’s taken thus far. He’s been sacked four times already and hit three times while throwing two interceptions. We also got word on Friday that guard Zack Martin is going to be out for this game, which is a huge loss for the Cowboys. At such a cheap price for a team that has an underrated pass rush, you can’t help but want to lock this one in.
Other Option – Denver Broncos ($2,900)
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