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Let’s take a look at all 12 NFL contests slated for Sunday’s DraftKings Sportsbook Pro Football Week 7 Spreads Pool, including my five personal favorites.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Tennessee Titans
This stands out as one of the best games of the week and we’re getting some nice value here from a betting perspective. This line opened at Steelers -1.5 – and that’s the available line in the DraftKings Sportsbook Pool for Week 7 – but it has since moved to Titans -1.5. That means we’re grabbing three points of spread value with the Titans in this contest.
There’s also plenty to like about Tennessee from a matchup perspective. The Steelers have been elite defensively this season, particularly against the run, but there’s a chance they could show slim slippage in that department with Devin Bush out for the season. The Titans have been one of the best offensive teams in football over their past 15 games, so they have the potential to exploit that injury.
The Titans’ offense is built around Derrick Henry, but don’t sleep on just how good Ryan Tannehill has been playing at QB. Since taking over as the starter for the Titans, Tannehill has completed 70.15% of his passes, thrown 35 touchdowns to eight interceptions and posted an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.70. Those marks are among the best in the league over that time frame. If the Steelers can slow down Henry, Tannehill is more than capable of winning this game with his arm.
The Pick: Titans +1.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ Houston Texans
This game should feature plenty of offense. The Texans have looked much better since getting rid of Bill O’Brien, while the Packers have been great offensively for most of the season. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a poor game in his last outing, but he has been outstanding to start the year. He’s posted an adjusted yards per attempt of 8.9, which is his highest mark since winning the MVP all the way back in 2014.
The fact that the Packers are coming off a blowout loss should work as a positive factor for them this week from a betting perspective. It’s only natural for teams to become undervalued after losing a game by such a substantial margin, even a team as good as the Packers. Historically, teams with a winning percentage of at least 58% have posted a mark of 26-12-1 against the spread following a loss of at least 28 points.
Even if you don’t buy the blowout loss angle, betting on an elite QB coming off a loss has historically been a profitable endeavor. Rodgers, in particular, has gone 33-21-1 throughout his career in that situation.
I love the Packers as a buy-low target this week.
The Pick: Packers -3.5
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints -7.5
The Saints were hopeful that they would get Michael Thomas back this week, but he has officially been ruled out after injuring his hamstring during practice on Wednesday. They’re likely also going to be without Emmanuel Sanders after he was placed on the COVID-19 list.
That said, I still think this is an excellent spot for them.
Even without their top two WRs, the Saints should have no problem moving the ball via Alvin Kamara. The Panthers currently rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs, which is where Kamara has done the majority of his damage this season. He’s been an absolute target monster in games without Thomas, logging at least nine in three of four games.
Additionally, the Saints are coming off a bye last week and teams who are favored following their bye week have historically been strong investments. They’ve posted a record of 161-121-9 against the spread in that situation, and Brees has historically gone 8-3 against the spread as a favorite with at least 13 days rest.
The Pick: Saints -7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
Your initial reaction to this spread might be that this is too many points for the Chargers to be favored by, but I would argue that it isn’t enough. The Jaguars were expected to be the worst team in the league this season, but they threw everyone off the scent with their Week 1 upset over the Colts. That said, they have been as bad as expected since then. They’ve lost each of their past five games, and they’ve lost each of their past four by at least eight points.
The Jaguars have been particularly poor against the pass, ranking dead last in DVOA in that department and the Chargers’ passing offense has been rolling since making the switch to Justin Herbert at QB. He’s averaged 298.8 yards per game and 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt, both of which are excellent marks for a rookie. The Chargers are 0-4 in those contests, but two of those losses have come in overtime against the Chiefs and Saints. They also lost a close contest to the Bucs, and you can’t really blame the Chargers for losing any of those games.
The Chargers are another team that fits the “favorite coming off a bye” trend and I also think they’re being undervalued by the sportsbooks at the moment. They might actually be a decent football team despite their record, while the Jags are one of the worst teams in the league.
The Pick: Chargers -7.5
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Washington Football Team
This is probably my favorite game of the week. I absolutely love Washington to win this game outright.
Andy Dalton was absolutely dreadful in his first game as the Cowboys’ starting QB, and the biggest reason for his struggles was the play of his offensive line. They have sustained a variety of injuries at the position, and losing Zack Martin in their last game may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. They are now down their projected starter at all five spots on the line and even backup offensive tackle Brandon Knight has gone down with a knee injury. They will likely get Cameron Erving back off the IR this week, but this line that was the envy of every team in football is now being held together by scotch tape.
That’s a problem for any quarterback, but it’s a BIG problem for Dalton. He has historically been dreadful when under pressure, particularly in his last few years with the Bengals. The Cowboys still have plenty of weapons for Dalton to lean on, but he may not be able to find them behind this patchwork offensive line.
Washington doesn’t do a lot well, but the one thing they are equipped to do is rush the passer. They should be licking their chops at the prospect of facing the Cowboys this week, just like they were when they racked up eight sacks vs. the Eagles in the first game of the year.
Washington should also have no problem scoring the ball against a Dallas defense that has been anemic to start the year. The Cowboys have allowed a ridiculous 218 points through their first six games, which is the top mark for any team in the Super Bowl Era.
Finally, we’re getting some nice spread value in this contest. We can grab Washington at +1.5, but the line has actually moved to pick ‘em or even Washington -1.
The Pick: Washington +1.5
Other Games
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
Buffalo Bills (-12.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Bills -12.5
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Browns -3.5
Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Pick: Lions +2.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos +9.5
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots (-2.5)
Pick: Patriots -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
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