It’s Week 7 in the NFL, and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I’m backing one of the league’s best receivers to make it a perfect 7-0 against his receiving total and backing a defense that has held two of the best rushers in football to hold one of the worst under 60 yards. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Josh Allen under 28.5 rushing yards (-112)
Quietly, Allen has opted to not run much this season. Yes, he’s coming off a game where he rushed eight times for 42 yards, but he had racked up just 44 yards on 15 carries in the four games prior. Coming off a game where he rushed a healthy amount and considering he rushed for 57 yards against the Jets in Week 1, this line is attackable and feels like a huge trap when you look at those two marks.
The truth is, Allen has only been a threat to run when the Bills get close to the goal line. Against an awful secondary and great run defense in the Jets, there will be no need for him to use his legs. Mix in a game script that would include the Bills up big in the second half, with few plays where Allen would work from the shotgun and scramble, and I’m comfortable taking this action.
Kenyan Drake under 59.5 rushing yards (-112)
Do not be alarmed by Drake’s 164-yard performance against Dallas on Monday night. First of all, the Cowboys’ defense is one of the worst in football. Second of all, most of these came on a 69-yard run in garbage time with the game well out of reach in the fourth quarter.
Drake’s body of work over the whole season has been very pedestrian; he’s averaged a brutal 3.7 yards per carry. Now he will face a Seahawks side that just held Dalvin Cook to 65 yards and held Ezekiel Elliott to 34 yards in Week 3. Now Drake, who is on the verge of losing his job to Chase Edmonds, is supposed to go for 60? I don’t think so!
Michael Gallup over 38.5 receiving yards (-112)
Watching the Cowboys with Andy Dalton under center the past two weeks, it’s obvious that Gallup and his big 6’1” frame is his preferred target. The young wideout has garnered 10 targets and 96 yards over the past two weeks and draws a matchup with the Washington Football Team, which is beginning to crack against the pass. The Rams’ receiving trio went for a combined 183 yards in Week 5 and Darius Slayton just went for 41 yards last week. Gallup should be able to reach this mark.
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Robby Anderson over 71.5 receiving yards (-125)
Want to hear something crazy? Anderson is a perfect 6-0 against his receiving total. He’s second in the league with 566 yards, flaunts an impressive 78.43% catch rate and has tallied a healthy 51 targets to rank eighth in football.
With Christian McCaffery (ankle) out again, the Panthers will have no choice but to turn to the passing game once again, which should mean another large dose of targets for Anderson. The Saints’ passing defense has been nothing special this year with a 7.1% DVOA, and in a pretty neutral matchup, the second-best receiver in the league thus far should have no issue flirting with 100 yards and making it a perfect 7-0 against his over/under.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.