clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Bears vs. Rams DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Julian Edlow preps you for Monday’s 8:20 p.m. ET NFL contest between the Bears and Rams with game-script analysis and DraftKings Captain’s Picks.

Despite the Bears coming in with the better record, Chicago sits as a 6-point road dog in this one, with a low total of 44.5. Let’s break down Bears-Rams from an MNF DraftKings Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineup here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (CHI vs LAR)


BIG PLAY PAYDAY PROMO

Opt-in to our fourth quarter big play promo, and if there’s a 20-plus yard touchdown in the 4th quarter, you’ll win a ticket to a $100k contest on Sunday, Nov. 1.

Opt-in for FREE after 6 p.m. ET but before the fourth quarter on the DraftKings Big Play Payday page or on the Chicago-Los Angeles (N) Sportsbook page.


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Chicago Bears

The Rams have played the pass pretty well this season, and while the Bears are winning, it’s not exactly like Nick Foles ($9,800) is lighting it up this season. He scored 18.22 DKFP in his first game against the Falcons, but he came in off the bench and ... it was against the Falcons. Since then, Foles is averaging just 14.2 DKFP and the Rams rank eighth in DKFP allowed to QBs. On a classic slate, I’d have zero interest here, but given it’s a showdown, I’ll settle for limited exposure to Foles at best.

No team allows fewer DKFP per game to WR than the Rams, further complicating things for targeting this passing attack. The target share for Allen Robinson II ($10,000) keeps him safe, but you have to settle for overpaying. A-Rob has been targeted at least nine times in every game this season and is averaging 12 per contest since Foles took over. Jalen Ramsey has the edge in this matchup. Darnell Mooney ($4,400) and Anthony Miller ($2,200) are nothing more than punts.

If there’s a weakness for the Rams’ pass defense, it’s covering TEs. Los Angeles ranks just 21st in DKFP allowed in that department and I’m willing to play the matchups in this case. Jimmy Graham ($7,200) has at least five targets in each game since Foles took over, averaging 13 DKFP during that span. After being targeted three times in the first five games of his career, Cole Kmet ($1,800) showed signs of life last week against the Panthers. The second-round pick brought in both his targets and scored a touchdown. There’s some upside here as a cheap punt given the matchup.

While David Montgomery ($8,400) is yet to really have the type of breakout game we’d like to see this season, he’s easily the safest play on the Chicago side. Montgomery’s really struggled as a rusher since shredding the Giants in Week 2, but the volume will unquestionably be there. With Tarik Cohen done for the season, Montgomery has expanded his role in the passing game as well. The Rams rank 20th in DKFP allowed to RB, so this is a spot to trust.


Los Angeles Rams

Editor’s note: Rams TE Tyler Higbee (hand) is inactive for tonight’s game vs. the Bears.

Jared Goff ($10,400) is the most expensive play on the slate, and while there’s been a lot of inconsistencies, you’re paying for upside. With the Bears ranking fourth in DKFP allowed to QBs, it’s tough to see Goff having one of his best games, but there aren’t many other places to turn. I think he’s the better QB play, despite struggling against the Bears the past two times he faced them.

Cooper Kupp ($9,200) has been far more inconsistent than we’re used to. Last season, even when Goff had a poor game, Kupp was at least able to salvage some value, which hasn’t really been the case this season. Again, with limited options on this showdown, feel free to roster Kupp, but I’d prefer Robert Woods ($9,000). Woods has touchdowns in four of his past five games and while we’d prefer he out-target Kupp like last week, he has proven he can do more with less. We’re also expecting a touch or two on the ground from Woods. Josh Reynolds ($2,800) and Van Jefferson ($800) are potential GPP punts, but with the Bears ranking fourth against the position, it’s tough to expect much.

These two defenses are very similar, with TE as the only real hole in production allowed. Chicago allows the 19th-most DKFP to TE, but the Rams’ TE situation is a little more cloudy than I’d hoped. Tyler Higbee ($6,200) finished 2019 as an elite TE play, but we’ve only seen that type of production from him once this season, back in Week 2 against the Eagles. He hasn’t seen more than four targets in any other game and is also expected to be playing through a hand injury. Gerald Everett ($4,800) is an intriguing pivot despite being a bit overpriced. After a slow start to the season, Everett has been targeted eight times in the past two games, turning that into a 7-117-0 line. The week before, he was able to score on the ground. It’s worth considering taking the savings on the less popular play.

The Rams’ backfield has been a revolving door this season. Cam Akers ($1,000) returned to rush for 61 yards on nine carries in Week 5, and right when we expected to see more of him, he didn’t see a touch in Week 6. Darrell Henderson ($8,200) is averaging 16 touches per game over the past two, so he appears to be the guy to target right now. Malcolm Brown ($3,400) has been serving as the backup ever since his Week 1 breakout. It’s a tough call who to play here, but the salaries to appear to indicate how much work we should see from each guy. The Bears are just about average against RB, but Montgomery is the safest play at the position simply because he’s locked into his workload.


THE OUTCOME

This isn’t exactly Seahawks and Cardinals on SNF, but we’re all working with the same options. I think we’re going to see a very close, low-scoring game, so targeting defenses and kickers should definitely be in consideration. David Montgomery ($12,600 CP) is where I’d feel safest starting, then you can get riskier in FLEX.

Final Score: Bears 16, Rams 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineup here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (CHI vs LAR)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.