After a couple weeks of exclusive, no-cut events relocated from Asia, the PGA TOUR is headed to Bermuda for a week in the Caribbean before the final push to Augusta for The Masters in a few weeks. This week’s Bermuda Championship sets up another fun-filled week of DFS fantasy golf on DraftKings. This event debuted last season and is usually an alternate field event while the big names play in the WGC-HSBC Champions. Since that event was canceled this season due to COVID-19, the Bermuda Championship gets the spotlight all to itself and also received a promotion to full FedExCup point event status, meaning the winner will get 500 FedExCup points and an invite to the 2021 version of The Masters.
The field does have a few big names, but it’s also a good chance to catch up with some of the players who are sometimes on the fringes of fantasy during bigger tournaments. Defending champion Brendon Todd ($11,100) is the most expensive play in the field with Will Zalatoris ($10,900), Doc Redman ($10,400), Charley Hoffman ($9,700) and Henrik Stenson ($9,300) some of the other more recognizable names in the upper echelon.
The Bermuda Championship will take place for the second straight year at the Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. The course is a Robert Trent Jones Sr. design that originally opened in 1970 and currently plays as a Par-71. It offers great ocean views throughout and is the longest course in Bermuda. Port Royal hosted the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009-2014. Since that was an extremely limited field event with just the major champions from the previous year, there isn’t much data to crunch from those events.
Last year, Brendon Todd won the event by four strokes with an impressive -24 total score powered by a 62 in the Final Round. He caught and passed Harry Higgs, who had the lead going into Sunday. Without ShotLink data, it’s a little tricky to focus too much on Todd’s week but he did finish T2 in the field in Birdie or better on Par 4s and in Birdie or better on Par 3s. Unsurprisingly, Todd and Higgs were 1-2 in Bogey Avoidance for the week as well, so we need players who can go low while also avoiding bogeys, which is always the recipe for a good week.
Specifically, Port Royal has eight par-4s under 415 yards, so we can also target players who excel on holes at that distance since wedge play is expected to be key this week. Two other factors to consider are last year’s results on this track and current form early in the season for these players, most of whom have not played in the past two weeks.
With fewer big names in the field, you’ll have to dig deeper to find some value plays. However, there are some options I think can pay off with a good week at a very affordable salary. Let’s take a look at who stands out this week from the options available for under $7.5K on DraftKings.
Tyler McCumber, $7,300
McCumber started the season strong with top-10 finishes at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship. At the Corales, he finished solo-second just one shot behind winner Hudson Swafford. That event and this week’s tournament have a lot in common since both are played in island resort settings with low scoring possible, shorter courses and shallower fields. His strong showings have both been highlighted by hitting over 75% of greens in regulation and good ball-striking, especially on Par 3s.
In his trip to the inaugural Bermuda Championship last season, McCumber made the cut and finished T41. He has been a boom-or-bust play so far this season, but I like his upside at this event based on his strong showing at Corales.
Beau Hossler, $6,900
Hossler has started the season strong with four straight made cuts and has played the weekend in 6-of-7 tournaments dating back to the start of August. He hasn’t teed it up since the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which he finished with seven birdies in his final 12 holes to surge to a T34.
Typically, Hossler excels on shorter holes since he is one of the bigger hitters on the PGA TOUR, leaving him with very short approach shots. He is gaining .422 shots off the tee per round this season over 12 rounds while continuing his strong putting and gaining .422 shots putting per round. Hossler sometimes gets loose on his longer approaches, but he shouldn’t have too many of those shots due to the way this course is laid out. Last season, he finished T24 at this event despite a below-average week off the tee. If he can bring his typically strong driving game, he should have an even better week this year and continue his strong start to the 2020-21 season.
David Hearn, $6,700
Hearn is a PGA TOUR veteran who has put together a long run since turning pro back in 2001. He has yet to get a PGA TOUR victory but has lost in a playoff twice. The Canadian is typically very good on the greens and has 1.024 shots gained with the flat stick per round so far this season. He also has only had 15 bogeys in his 10 rounds this season, putting him in the top 10 in bogey avoidance. Not only can he avoid dropping shots, he started the season showing he can go low and posting a T14 with a -15 score at the Safeway Open. He also made the cut in the Dominican Republic, where he finished T33, before missing the cut in Jackson at the Sanderson Farms Championship and taking a few weeks off.
This week, he’ll be back in action in Bermuda. Last year, he fired four excellent rounds at Port Royal and finished T8. Most of his success came on those critical short par 4s, which he played at -10 for the week. Hearn had a strong start to the season including that result in Bermuda but struggled after the restart before finding his footing in Napa in the new season.
Ryan Brehm, $6,500
After finishing third on the PGA TOUR last season in average driving distance, Brehm profiles very well for this course. He is T3 on the PGA TOUR so far this season in Par 4 efficiency between 350 and 400 yards and also in the top 10 in Par 4 efficiency between 400 and 450 yards. Since 11 of the 18 holes at Port Royal can play in those windows, he should be set up well if he continues to thrive on those holes.
Last season, Brehm made the cut in Bermuda after a strong 68-68 start but faded with 71-72 on the weekend and finished T51. Since then, he has had a solid year of results, making the cut in 10 of his past 14 events on the PGA TOUR and four of his six tournaments on the Korn Ferry Tour. He gained .346 shots off the tee per round last season but lost shots on the green. He has continued that pattern this year but improved to .958 shots gained off the tee per round which puts him in the top 10 so far this season. He also started picking up .541 shots on approach, which should put him in good spots this week. Unfortunately, his putter hasn’t gotten hot yet, but if it does, he should be set for a good week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Z.Thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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