We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
Not overreacting to the Rams’ dominant win on MNF — the Bears are frauds. This is more of a Tua Tagovailoa fade. Ryan Fitzpatrick had this offense clicking, and while Tua may wind up being a good QB down the line, this is a very difficult NFL debut, even off a bye at home. The Rams’ defense is for real, and I think Tua is going to struggle and be under constant pressure — something he wasn’t used to at Alabama. Offensively, I’m not worried about the Rams being able to do their part. Teams coming off a short week have historically played extremely well against teams off the bye. This is also a unique situation given the QB change during the bye.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Still no Aaron Jones, and some windy conditions could perhaps slow down Davante Adams just a bit, but the Packers should just be too much here at home. The Packers are 3-0 straight up and ATS in the last three meetings with the Vikings, winning by nine points per game. Green Bay is also 8-3 ATS the last 11 times its hosted Minnesota. The Vikings have every reason to give up on this season, coming in with just one win, and started becoming sellers during their bye week.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
I was staying away from this one earlier in the week, but all the offensive line injuries for the Bengals finally have me on board. I have no doubt the Titans can do their job offensively, as Derrick Henry should run all over Cincy. But with the pressure they should get on Joe Burrow, there’s a game script here where Tennessee can run away with it.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh is a pretty public dog this week, coming off a big win over the Titans to remain undefeated. It’s obvious why people like them, but coming off the bye, I think Baltimore is being forgotten. We saw them come up short in a big primetime game against the Chiefs earlier in the season, but I think that only fuels the Ravens further in this one. The Ravens are 10-2 out of the bye under John Harbaugh, including 9-3 ATS. They won out of the bye last season and three-point dogs against the undefeated Patriots, dominating in a 37-20 game. The Ravens won Pittsburgh’s last trip to town by 18.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Le’Veon Bell to Score TD (-106) — 1.59 to win 1.5
Extremely square play here, but one that I feel is extremely likely to hit. Who knows about the 20-point spread, but the Jets stand no chance to win this game. Bell needs to get some work with his new team, having carried the ball just 25 times this season. It’s a perfect matchup, and just so happens to be a revenge spot against the team he was on just a couple of weeks ago. If the Chiefs want Bell to get into the end zone in this one, he will.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
SEASON TOTAL: 14-24 (-6.71 UNITS)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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