We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The only spot I really trusted last week was the Patriots, and they came through for 2-units. But I tried to spread myself out with more plays, and it cost us. Only sticking to the spots I trust this week.
Moneyline Parlay Pool
When a week sets up the right way, I like to make a pool of teams to tease or put in a moneyline parlay. It worked out great in Week 2 and now we’ll go back to it with a three-team pool.
The Dolphins are a trendy home dog this week and will put up some points on a depleted Seattle defense. But Miami’s defense will have zero answers for Russell Wilson, who we’ll also look to capitalize on in the props. The MVP frontrunner has been in complete control of every game so far this season, so I’m not afraid of the line moving against us here.
The Niners are probably my strongest spot of the week, despite being one of the most beat-up teams in the NFL. The Eagles are pretty equally dinged, especially when it comes to pass-catchers. That’s not good news for Carson Wentz, who’s arguably been the worst starting QB in the NFL. The Niners just need to play solid defense, run the ball and get George Kittle involved in his return and they should be able to pull this one out pretty easily.
The Falcons will win a game at some point and Green Bay’s defense doesn’t provide much resistance. But Aaron Rodgers is going to have a much easier time carving Atlanta’s secondary, regardless of who suits up at WR. The Packers have put up at least 37 in each game this season.
Wilson has 14 touchdowns through three games this season, at least four in each game, and now faces a soft Miami secondary without its best player. It’s a near-perfect spot for Russ, with Chris Carson also coming into the game banged up. Seattle has finally abandoned the run this season and put the ball in the star’s hands as much as possible. It would be surprising not to see three passing scores here, so the plus money makes this one tough to pass on.
Golladay made a huge difference for the Lions when he made his season debut in Week 3, helping them beat the Cardinals. He was targeted seven times, finishing with a 6-57-1 line, and now gets a fantastic matchup at home against the Saints. New Orleans will be without both of its starting cornerbacks and was already one of the worst secondaries in football. The Saints have been extremely undisciplined on defense, giving up some sloppy penalties this season.
Dwayne Haskins Passing Yards: UNDER 220.5 (-106) — 2.12 to win 2
This is a simple play that I’m not overthinking. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting that Washington is prepared to bench Haskins if he isn’t playing well against a tough Baltimore defense looking to bounce-back from an embarrassing MNF showing — that’s probably not good for Haskins. Anytime we can play an under on someone that has a good shot to not play the full game, we have to fire away. This news doesn’t do much from a DFS standpoint, but we can find an edge on the sportsbook side.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
WEEK 4 UNITS PENDING: 9.69
SEASON TOTAL: 10-15 (-2.87 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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