What’s an NFL week without some COVID-19 issues?! How about some weather concerns? Does that all sound fun or what!? It’s Week 8, everybody! Let’s get excited!

Feel free to drop me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

New York Jets (+1150; +19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-2000)

This line is just so incredibly ridiculous. At first glance you see this and think “Oh, is this one of those DraftKings odds boosts?” No, no it’s not. Instead it’s more of a “playing the Jets odds boost.”

I’m not going to waste your time on this and go too in depth into it. I can’t imagine anyone is excited to lay money down on a -2000 favorite. Likewise, if you’re putting money down on the Jets, you’re either looking for some likes and retweets on Twitter or you’re just hoping 2020 comes through with something insane once again and your $5 bet hits.

From a DFS standpoint, Patrick Mahomes ($8,100) isn’t a favorite play of mine but ownership will likely follow him because of the matchup. The Chiefs do have a team total of 33.5 points, so it’s not as if Mahomes can’t rack up some fantasy goodness against a Jets team that’s allowing an average of 20.8 DKFP and 268 passing yards to opposing QBs. If anything, if you’re looking for a tournament play, this is such an excellent spot for Le’Veon Bell ($4,600) at a dirt cheap salary. With six carries last week and the potential for a blowout, this is a perfect spot for Bell to get more integrated with the offense, against his former team no less. While it didn’t feel like a split last week, Bell was on the field for 33.3% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps while Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,500) played 53%. Of the total carries, Bell handled 27.3% and CEH at 36.4%. A lot closer than you imagined, right? In these large field tournament, I’m loving Bell this week.

Other notable favorites: Philadelphia Eagles (-375; -8.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+310), Green Bay Packers (-278; -6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+240)

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

San Francisco 49ers (25.5 points) at Seattle Seahawks (27.5 points; -3) 54 points

No surprise to see the Seahawks once again involved in the highest projected scoring game of the week, as they host the 49ers. The Seahawks are not only scoring a ton of points but they’re giving up just as many, allowing an average of 28.7 per game, which is the 10th-highest in the league. The problem here is the 49ers are dealing with a number of injuries on their offense coming into this one.

Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. are all out for this game. Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800) looks to be a tremendous play in this one and could really shine as the WR1 in this game. After him, it’s going to be a real guess who will be getting the attention of Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400) aside from George Kittle ($7,000). Then, of course, defending against Tyler Lockett ($7,100) and DK Metcalf ($7,500) is no small task. With the lack of weapons on the 49ers, it’s not a surprise to see this total hasn’t moved since opening at 54. The 49ers are also only 3-4 at hitting the over this season while the Seahawks are a solid 4-2, covering by an average margin of +9.2 points. I think this game is going to end up being extremely popular to target, especially with a number of games dealing with weather and wind issues.

The following games will be seeing at least 25 mph winds, which is in the forecast as of Thursday evening.

-Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns

-Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

-New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears

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DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, 13.3 1st
Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, 13.9, 2nd
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 15.6, T-3rd

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, 30.6, 32nd
Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, 25, T-28th
Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, 25, T-28th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, 16.4, 1st
Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, 16.7 2nd
Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, 18.7 T-3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, 33.8, 32nd
Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, 32.6 30th
Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, 29.9, 27th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, 28.5, 2nd
New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, 30.1, 3rd
New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, 30.2, 4th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, 64, 32nd
Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, 49.7, 31st
Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, 49.3, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, 5.1, 1st
Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, 6.7, 2nd
Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, 7.4, 3rd

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, 19.1 32nd
Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, 18.8, 30th
New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, 18.5 28th

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Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

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DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans, $6,200 — This week more than ever, we’re going to have to get a bit creative with our lineups. Maybe you don’t want to take the chalky quarterback whose team is favored by almost 20 points. Or maybe you don’t want to mess with a quarterback in one of the many games with wind issues. That has me landing on Burrow in his matchup against the Titans. This game does have a LITTLE wind concerns but not enough to have me fading. The Titans have quietly been a team to target against and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 22.1 DKFP and 282 passing yards per game with 15 total touchdowns thrown. The Titans also rank near the bottom of the league in pass rush, which is always a plus for Burrow. When Burrow is working with a clean pocket, he has a 74.2% completion percentage, 7.6 YPA and seven of the nine touchdowns he’s thrown.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans, $6,600 — To be fair, you could pair Burrow with Boyd or even the emerging Tee Higgins ($5,600), who is still underpriced. I do like using Boyd a lot here as the Titans have had issues against slot receivers. Opposing slot receivers are averaging 82.5 receiving yards per game and 11.7 YPR. As if that wasn’t reason enough, Boyd is also a huge factor in the red zone, drawing a team-leading 22% target share, the highest on the team. With these factors combined, I love stacking these two together as a cheaper option to utilize.

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Top Running Back To Consider

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions, $6,600 — This is a really tough week for running backs. When Sunday rolls around, we’ll likely have a lot more clarity on the status of many of the backs you’ll want to play, like Dalvin Cook ($7,500) and Kareem Hunt ($6,900). For now, I do like Taylor a lot against a poor Lions run defense. The Lions aren’t only getting gashed on the ground, they’re giving up a healthy amount of PPR points through the air. Taylor has been involved in the passing game and has seven targets over the last two weeks before they went into their bye week. Taylor continues to be extremely efficient on the ground, averaging 4.1 YPC on his 89 carries.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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