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NFL Week 8 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 8 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

The turmoil of 2020 continues into Week 8, although this time it’s coming mostly from Mother Nature. Cold temperatures and heavy winds are set to impact most of this week’s games and a few of them are showing large-scale changes in the betting lines. The good news for this week is that two of the best games of the year are mostly unaffected by weather, as the Baltimore Ravens will host the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers are in Seattle to face the Seahawks.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • Totals in the “wind games” and several others have continued to drop. Vikings-Packers is down to 48, Titans-Bengals is down to 50, Raiders-Browns is down to 47.5, and Saints-Bears is down to 41. The Steelers-Ravens total has fallen significantly as well, from 49 to 44.
  • The Titans spread has continued to rise due to lopsided betting, and is now up to a key number at -7.
  • The 49ers spread has been trending downward, moving from +3.5 at the beginning of the week, to +2.5 on Friday, and now to +1.5.

Betting Splits Breakdown

In addition to the games mentioned at the top, one of the most notable matchups of the week is one that has very little chance to even be competitive. The New York Jets are easily the largest underdogs so far this season at +19.5 in Kansas City against the Chiefs. The Jets are still favored to get a win at some point in 2020, but this week definitely doesn’t look like their best chance.

The Steelers-Ravens game sets up to be one of the best so far this season, but interestingly there’s actually some lopsided betting on the underdog. Even though the Ravens are generally a more popular team, the Steelers are undefeated and that’s surely playing a part in the betting splits, which are heavily skewed toward the Pittsburgh side. The line originally opened with the Steelers +5.5, moved to +3.5 and has since corrected back to +4.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Tennessee Titans (-4 to -6.5)

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5 to +2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5 to +4)

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5 to -10.5)

Totals

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (55.5 to 51 to OTB)

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (46 to 41)

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (45 to 42)

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (55.5 to 49.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (49 to 46.5)

This line movement section is a lot busier in Week 8 than it’s been for any week so far this football season, and the weather surely has a lot to do with that. Green Bay, Buffalo and Cleveland look to be most affected, and the totals in those games have fallen by four to six points. The weather in previous weeks has caused totals to move two to three points in extreme cases, which speaks to just how extreme Week 8 appears to be.

As for the spreads, the largest change from early in the week to now is coming in the Sunday Night game between the “top” two teams in the NFC East, as the Dallas Cowboys are now down to their third-string quarterback Ben DiNucci. A Cowboys turnaround seemed inevitable just a few weeks ago, but without Dak Prescott and now without Andy Dalton, it has gotten very ugly very fast. The Eagles are far from a super-team, but they’re still favored by 10.5 in Week 8.

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