It’s Week 8 in the NFL, and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I’m fading an exciting rookie in his debut against an accomplished pass defense, backing a former All-Pro in a revenge spot and buying very low on one of the most exciting young receivers in football. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Tua Tagovailoa under 230.5 passing yards (-112)
Last week, the Los Angeles Rams put on a defensive clinic against Nick Foles, holding to him to around 6.5 yards per passing attempt and picking him off twice. It was somewhat of a confidence-booster and a dominant, bounce-back performance for a defense which ranks 11th in DVOA, but struggled in a loss against the 49ers in Week 6. Tagovailoa be make his NFL debut in this one, so I expect Miami to go run-heavy. Even if he decides to throw the ball 35 times, I don’t see Tagovailoa eclipsing this mark. LA’s secondary has been sneaky good this year, and their Week 6 performance against San Francisco appears to be a one-week lapse.
Carson Wentz over 19.5 rushing yards (-112)
Since rushing for nine yards in Philadelphia’s first two games of the year, Wentz has rushed for 176 over the past five. He’s had three huge games on the ground over that span, and is running for a career-high 5.3 yards per carry so far this season. Dallas has one of the worst defenses in football, and I think Wentz will find opportunities to exploit the Cowboys’ weaknesses in a number of different ways. Game script will be working against Wentz here, if you buy into this being a blowout, but he should have a chance in the first half of this game to hit it or get close enough.
Le’Veon Bell over 11.5 receiving yards (-130)
I refuse to believe that Bell would sign with a team that didn’t plan on using him, considering that was his big issue with the Jets. I’m betting it’s more likely that his first game with the Chiefs wasn’t representative of how he’ll be used going forward, and more just trying to get Bell acclimated to the offense. Facing his former team, I expect Bell to be on the field a lot more, and he’ll want Andy Reid to use him in the passing game – a place where he’s thrived over his career and where the Jets refused to feature him. I’d even wager he hits this on one big catch-and-run in the first quarter.
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Henry Ruggs III over 33.5 receiving yards (-112)
Cleveland’s pass defense is one of the worst in football, allowing 288.1 per game, good for 30th in the NFL. It’s been a spot where several receivers have had breakout or get-right performances, and it will once again be a fountain of yards for a man who needs them in Ruggs. The rookie’s talent is undeniable, but after an injury he’s run into two fantastic secondaries in a row, slowing all the momentum he had after two weeks. This is a fantastic buy-low opportunity on Ruggs, he’ll surely go over this number and shred one of the league’s weakest secondaries.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.