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NBA Best Bets: Basketball Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Lakers vs. Heat on October 4

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA Finals betting card.

Sunday features Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat. The Lakers were able to win the first two games of this series by comfortable margins, and the Heat are dealing with two major injuries at the moment. Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are both doubtful for Game 3, and their absences would leave the Heat without two of their best players.

Can Miami overcome adversity and make this a series or will Los Angeles cruise to another victory?

Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA slate.

DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Heat +9.5 (-110)

It’s hard to have any faith in the Heat right now. The losses of Adebayo and Dragic are absolutely massive. Adebayo has been arguably their best player during the postseason, while Dragic has led the team in scoring and usage rate. They were already one of the largest Finals’ underdogs in recent history, and they’ve dropped to +2400 to win the series after two straight losses.

The biggest reason for the Lakers’ win in Game 2 was their utter dominance on the glass. They posted an offensive rebound rate of 38.5% in that contest, which put them in the 99th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Adebayo was Miami’s best rebounder during the regular season, so it’s not all that surprising that they struggled without him. The Heat were comparable vs. the Lakers in terms of effective FG% in Game 2, so the game really came down to the fact that the Lakers had a ridiculous 28 additional shot attempts. If the Heat can close that gap a bit in Game 3, I like their chances to cover in this contest.

Additionally, history is on their side in Game 3. Teams who have lost at least two straight games during the NBA Finals have gone on to cover in their next game at a nearly 61% clip. The spread typically becomes a bit inflated in those situations, and those teams have the added motivation of knowing that they need a win.

Anthony Davis rebounds

Over 10.5 (+110)

Even if the Heat can cover the spread in this contest, Davis should still be able to have a field day on the glass. He’s coming off 14 rebounds vs. the Heat in his last contest, and Miami’s rebound rate drops to just 49.7% with Adebayo off the court this season. That represents a decrease of nearly -1.5% compared to their full-season mark of 51.1%.

The Heat really have no alternatives to turn to who can match Davis’ combination of size and athleticism. Meyers Leonard played just nine minutes in Game 2 despite entering the starting lineup, while Kelly Olynyk is at a huge disadvantage. Expect to see Davis control the paint once again in Game 3.

Finals MVP winner

LeBron James (-200)

Davis has played great during the playoffs, but this is LeBron’s award to lose at the moment. He continues to play like the best player in the league in his 17th season, and he’s averaged nearly a triple-double with 29.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists through his first two games vs. the Heat.

Davis deserves some consideration for this award given his performances during the postseason, but it’s pretty clear who is Batman and who is Robin in this relationship. It would take a couple of massive performances from Davis or some disastrous performances from James to swing this award before the end of the series. -200 odds translate to an implied probability of 66.67%, but I think James’ true odds of winning the MVP are above 75%. That makes this a nice value.

Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.