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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Lakers vs. Heat Showdown on October 4

Greg Ehrenberg gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Lakers and Heat, which starts at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The NBA Finals are underway and we are focusing on the DraftKings Showdown contest for Game 3 of the series, which takes place on Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Showdown Strategy

Miami Heat

There is a ton of value on the Miami side of the game for the second consecutive game. After they both sat out in Game 2, Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are both doubtful to play tonight. Assuming they both sit, we have some cheap players to roster to save salary.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Heat C Bam Adebayo (neck) and PG Goran Dragic (foot) have been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Lakers.

The most obvious value play in this contest is Kelly Olynyk ($3,200). After playing the majority of the center minutes on Friday and finishing with 38.75 DKFP, his price has oddly only gone up by $200. He probably should be one of the most expensive players on Miami considering his role from Game 3. Olynyk played 37 minutes with a 27.3% usage rate and there isn’t much reason to think this changes. If anything, he could start and play more minutes. Meyers Leonard ($2,400) started at center last game, but played just nine minutes.

Tyler Herro ($8,400) started in place of Dragic last game. Even though he didn’t put together a massive fantasy game, we saw some encouraging signs. Most notably, he played 43 minutes. The Lakers did well on defense to keep him in check, but this doesn’t mean the same thing will happen today. Considering some of the big games the rookie has had in the postseason, the upside is substantial for Herro if he gets that much playing time.

Kendrick Nunn ($4,400) is another guard who stands to benefit from the absence of Dragic. He’s cheap and played 29 minutes last game. If not for early foul trouble, we likely would have gotten over 30 minutes from Nunn. Olynyk is the better value play, but there’s no reason we can’t have lineups with both of them.

If Jimmy Butler ($9,800) doesn’t play well, the Heat don’t stand much of a chance to stay competitive in this game. Butler played 45 minutes and scored 56.5 DKFP last game despite playing on a banged up ankle. For the season, Butler leads the Heat with a 29.3% usage rate when Adebayo and Dragic are off the court.

Los Angeles Lakers

Stars and scrubs is the best way to go about building lineups for this slate. With all the value on the Miami side of the game, it’s not tough to get Anthony Davis ($18,300 CP/$12,200) and/or LeBron James ($19,500 CP/$13,000) into lineups. Of the two, I slightly prefer AD in the Captain’s spot. With that said, it makes sense to get exposure to both as a 1.5x play if making multiple lineups. The reason I lean towards Davis is because it was apparent last game that the Heat have no answer for him with Adebayo out. Davis dominated the shorthanded frontcourt, scoring 32 points on 15 of 20 shooting from the field.

Since moving into the starting lineup, Dwight Howard ($3,600) has put together some big fantasy games. The one issue with him is a potential lack of playing time. He’s only averaging 16 minutes per game in this series, making him a bit risky. As long as Howard starts, he’s a viable punt, although the cheap plays from Miami are a bit more reliable.

Almost all the production from the Lakers is coming out of their two stars, so it’s tough to find other good plays on the roster. As a lower-owned play, Rajon Rondo ($7,000) could bring upside. His playing time has waned in recent games, but this is mostly a result of final scores. Since he comes off the bench and the Lakers won the first two games of the series by double-digits, there wasn’t much need for Rondo to play big minutes in the later stages of games. Even so, he scored 38.5 DKFP in 26 minutes during Friday’s win.

The Outcome

Even before the Heat started to get banged up in Game 1, the Lakers were starting to run away in the second quarter. We will never know how the series would have played out if Miami stayed healthy, but I think we can say the Lakers still would be winning these games comfortably. There doesn’t seem to be much doubt in the final result of this series and the Lakers are on their way to winning another title. All that’s left is figuring out whether LeBron James or Anthony Davis will walk away with Finals MVP honors.

Final Series Score: Lakers 115, Heat 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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