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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 5

Steve Buchanan analyzes three player performances from Week 4 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 5.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings MNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (ATL vs GB)

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers
Week 4 Fantasy Total: 22.1 DKFP

It’s gotten to the point now where I think it’s safe to say Davis is not someone you can fade at this point. His usage in this offense continues to maintain at a high level and he once again saw over 20 touches in this game, handling 16 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown along with five catches for 27 yards. Even in a game where the Panthers were leading (which wasn’t overly expected), Davis, who gave up 10 carries to Reggie Bonnafon ($4,000; 15.1 DKFP) was still a main point of this Panthers offense.

Week 5 will bring one of the most attractive matchups a team can draw against the Falcons. This team is fast paced, will score a ton of points but also give up plenty as well. On the ground, they’ve been good, allowing an average of only 68 rushing yards and 3.6 YPC. Where they’re seeing some issues is through the air, allowing an 80% catch rate, 11.4 YPR and two touchdowns scored through the air. As I write this, the Falcons have yet to face the Packers, so we’ll see what Aaron Jones can do to them as well.

Davis should continue to see plenty of work in Week 5 and his passing down work will make him an attractive option, especially with the lack of consistency from the Panthers’ pass catchers. They’ve gone two straight weeks with a receiver scoring no more than 17.9 DKFP and that came in Week 4 with Robby Anderson making eight catches for 99 yards. Davis is by far a favorite quick target for Teddy Bridgewater ($5,600; 27.24 DKFP) and should be treated as such when building your lineups.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 Fantasy Total: 45.1 DKFP

Mixon was the highest-scoring player during the early afternoon contests and, edging out Dak Prescott ($7,200; 42.28) by only 2.82 DKFP. After averaging only 9.4 DKFP through the first three weeks, Mixon exploded against the Jaguars, rushing the ball for 151 yards on 25 carries with two touchdowns and making six catches for 30 yards and a touchdown. His 151 rushing yards were the second-most in his career, coming just shy of the 162 he had against the Browns in Week 17 last season. His 181 total yards were also the second-highest of his career, as he had 186 in Week 14 against the Browns last season.

While this 2020 breakout was great, especially considering he was owned by only an average of 5.2% of lineups on Sunday, he draws a very tough matchup against the Ravens in Week 5. The Ravens defense got back on track against the Washington Football Team and held their running backs to only 57 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. Where they were gashed was through the air, as Washington caught 11 of their 14 targets for an impressive 122 yards. The Chiefs in Week 3 got good work there as well, with eight catches and 76 yards.

If the Bengals do continue to give him targets, there is a good path for Mixon in Week 5. For the amount of pressure Joe Burrow ($6,300; 19.1 DKFP) has been under this season, it’s surprising to see that Mixon hasn’t been getting more dump offs. Prior to today, he made just seven receptions on nine targets. Coming into Week 4, Burrow was pressured on 38% of his drop backs and had only 5.0 YPA. Getting some quick catches out of Mixon could help against a very tough Ravens defense in Week 5, but obviously, that’s not my call.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Week 4 Fantasy Total: 4.9 DKFP

For how expensive Gallup was at $6,200, he has to be considered one of the biggest busts on the slate. Fresh off a 28.8 DKFP performance against the Seahawks which saw him make six catches for 138 yards and a touchdown, Gallup only had two catches for 29 yards in Week 4. Sure, he continues to get plenty of attention from Dak Prescott ($7,200; 42.28 DKFP), as he’s drawn five targets in each game this season, but CeeDee Lamb ($5,400; 25.2 DKFP) is really making his mark as the true WR2 in this offense.

One aspect to notice is that Gallup’s snap count has been dropping ever so slightly since the season began. During the first two weeks, he was on for almost every offense snap at 95% and 93%. Over the past two weeks, while still a very healthy number, he’s played 85% in Week 3 and 82% here in Week 4. Now, to be fair, he’s still playing more than Lamb, who played on 75% of the offensive snaps today, but when it comes to targets, Lamb has been the No. 2 behind Amari Cooper ($6,700; 36.4).

While Gallup’s salary will no doubt drop after this clunker and Lamb will rise, I think Gallup is mostly someone we can not give much attention to moving forward. Sure, there will be matchups where he’ll draw some favorable coverage and we can look to slot him in as leverage off the field in tournaments, but his Week 3 performance is looking more and more like it was more of an outlier than not.

Set your DraftKings MNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (ATL vs GB)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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