At long last, we have another loaded slate of postseason baseball with four games on Tuesday. The offenses are hot everywhere, and the dogs are absolutely barking. With the stage set, I’ve picked out three of my favorite baseball bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
I’m feeling dangerous with this one, but it’s hard to fade the postseason GOATs, a team that has never lost a postseason series in six tries.
In all seriousness, I wanted to find a reason to back the Braves here because of Max Fried, but upon closer examination, this line is off. Sandy Alcantara may not have the elite batted ball statistics like Fried’s 23.8% hard hit rate and .201 expected batting average, but he does have a great track record and familiarity with a dangerous Braves offense. Last season, Alcantara quieted many of these same bats to a 2.41 ERA in 18 2⁄3 innings across three starts. On the other side, Fried’s two appearances against Miami were a mixed bag; he threw seven scoreless innings in one but allowed seven baserunners, and in the other, his last outing of the season, he couldn’t make it out of the second inning. Some might be backing the talented young lefty after a scoreless outing against the Reds, but I caution that he did allow seven runners (six hits) in that game. You don’t normally get away with stranding that many runners in a postseason game, but the Reds had an allergy to scoring runs in that wild card series.
The Marlins are just outside the top 10 in baseball with a 111 wRC+ against lefties, and should be more than capable of getting to Fried today. This certainly isn’t a spot to smash Miami, but this is tremendous value in a winnable game. This Marlins offense is legit.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
This is a big-time public side, but one which is too hard to pass up. The Yankees’ offense is rolling, and Tyler Glasnow certainly isn’t. The righty gave up two homers in his only outing of the postseason against the Blue Jays, and has been allowing hard contact at an alarming 42.4% rate this year, which won’t fly against the best home-run hitting team in the league. The Yankees have hit a postseason-high 11 dingers so far, walked a postseason-high 20 times and surprisingly rank near the middle in strikeouts per game. This matchup profiles as a nightmare for Glasnow, who walks a ton of hitters but relies on strikeouts to get him through adversity. The Yankees have not chased too much in October and should get plenty of runners on base here, making home runs even more difficult. Glasnow was fortunate the two gopher balls he gave up against Toronto were solo shots, and he won’t be as fortunate against New York.
The other person I need to mention here is Deivi Garcia, who has had his ups and downs in his rookie season but is prone to giving up hard contact. This is certainly more of a wager on the Yankees’ offense to out-slug the Rays, but one thing that Garcia may have going for him is his low 4.1% walk rate. The Rays haven’t exactly been the kings of contact in October, hitting under .230 (yes, I just used batting average!), so this might actually profile as a good matchup for Garcia. He also likely won’t go deep in this game, making the full-game moneyline a good play since the Yankees’ bullpen is relatively easy to trust.
Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s
This game absolutely reeks of an over. I will admit, I wasn’t a believer in this Houston offense and its unspectacular ranking towards the bottom of the league heading into October, but it’s really impressed me. Top to bottom, production has picked up, with Carlos Correa returning to be an absolute force at the plate. Both of these pitchers have horrific statistical profiles, allowing contact at an average of about 91 mph each.
Oakland has scored an average of around five runs per game over the last three, and Houston has scored nearly six per game. The offenses are hot, and the pitchers are pretty bad. If I had to pick a side here, I’m on the Astros; I will probably advise taking them until they finally become favorites this postseason, and Valdez has an edge over Manaea.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.