Game 1 of an exciting National League playoff series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will begin on Tuesday. It’s an intriguing matchup between a Dodgers team that has a deep starting rotation and a Padres team that has a thin rotation because of a couple of key injuries. Let’s dive into Tuesday night’s DraftKings Showdown contest and discuss how things might play out.
Editor’s Note: Padres SP Mike Clevinger will start tonight’s game vs. the Dodgers.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $50K West Coast Clash [$10K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Walker Buehler ($17,700 CP) — Buehler was bitten by the long ball this season, allowing 1.7 HR/9. Still, he managed to finish with a 3.44 ERA thanks to his 0.95 WHIP. He has a 1.03 WHIP for his career, so his excellence in that area this season shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Padres have yet to name their starting pitcher as of early Tuesday morning, but their options are the struggling Chris Paddack ($11,200), Mike Clevinger ($12,600), who would likely be on a limited pitch count because of an elbow injury, and Zach Davies ($11,400). Yes, Davies pitched well against the Dodgers in two previous meetings this season, but his upside is limited based on his career 17.3 percent strikeout rate. If you want to roll with a pitcher in the Captain’s spot, Buehler should be your man.
Mookie Betts ($14,700 CP) — Considering his salary, Betts is arguably the most appealing option for the Captain’s spot. As good as Buehler has been, facing the Padres won’t exactly be easy. Meanwhile, Betts has the potential to feast on the struggling Padres pitching staff. After a regular season in which he posted the second highest wOBA (.390) of his career, Betts went 3-for-7 with three doubles in the Wild Card round against the Brewers.
Value Plays
Justin Turner ($6,800) — Turner took a step backward in terms of his power production this season. He had posted an ISO of at least .205 in each of the last four years, but he finished 2020 with a .153 ISO. On the bright side, he still recorded a .376 wOBA and was a tough out considering his 14.9 percent strikeout rate. In what could be a high-scoring game for the Dodgers, Turner could provide significant value.
Editor’s Note: Padres 1B Mitch Moreland is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Dodgers.
Mitch Moreland ($6,400) — As mentioned earlier, Buehler struggled to prevent home runs this year. Enter Moreland, who recorded a .287 ISO with the Red Sox and Padres combined. He was even better against right-handed pitchers, recording a .315 ISO against them compared to a .160 ISO versus lefties. Add in the benefit of hitting within a deep Padres lineup and he could be well worth the risk at this salary.
Tommy Pham ($4,600) — Pham has the potential to be the best value play on the slate. Don’t let his 78 wRC+ during the regular season scare you away. He missed some time because of injuries, but he did record at least one hit in six of eight games to finish the season after he was activated from the IL. He followed that up by hitting 6-for-13 with two doubles against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round. Although he does have better career numbers against lefties, he hasn’t exactly struggled with a career .348 wOBA against righties, either.
Fades
Max Muncy ($8,000) — The truncated regular season turned out to be a rough one for Muncy, who only had a 100 wRC+. If it weren’t for his 12 home runs, he could have been a total disaster when you consider his .331 OBP. One of the main reasons for his struggles was his 44.1 percent groundball rate, which was the second-highest mark of his career. While his power is appealing, this salary makes him awfully risky.
The Outcome
The significant edge that the Dodgers should have in the starting pitching department will likely give them the edge in Game 1. It should help their cause that the Padres will likely be rolling with a right-handed pitcher given that the Dodgers had a .837 OPS against righties compared to a .778 OPS versus lefties. Overall, though, this has the makings of a close series between two teams that have dangerous lineups.
Final Score: Dodgers 7, Padres 4
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $50K West Coast Clash [$10K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.