clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Lakers vs. Heat Showdown on October 6

Greg Ehrenberg gives his top lineup advice for Tuesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Lakers and Heat, which starts at 9:00 p.m. ET.

The NBA Finals are underway and we are focusing on the DraftKings Showdown contest for Game 4 of the series, which takes place on Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers have a 2-1 series lead over the Miami Heat heading into tonight’s game.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround [$250K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Showdown Strategy

Miami Heat

After missing the last couple of games, Goran Dragic ($8,200) is doubtful to play tonight, but Bam Adebayo ($9,400) is trending towards returning. The Heat upgraded Bam from doubtful to questionable. If forced to guess, I think he plays tonight. If this is the case and Adebayo doesn’t have any sort of restrictions, I think he makes for an excellent play. Bam is averaging more DKFP than any other player on Miami during the playoffs.

Whether Adebayo plays or not has a massive effect on the rest of the players on the Heat. Kelly Olynyk ($3,200) is the player this news has the biggest influence on. In the last two games without Bam, Olynyk is averaging 35.75 DKFP. His salary hasn’t moved, so he’s easily the best value play on this slate without Adebayo. However, if Bam plays, Olynyk might not even step on the court. He was barely a part of the Heat rotation before the injury to Adebayo and was a DNP in two of the final three games against the Celtics.

After scoring 83.25 DKFP in Game 3, Jimmy Butler ($9,600) is going to end up as one of the most popular plays on the slate. This makes sense. Beyond the recency bias, he played 45 minutes in each of the last two games. His current workload is insane. With that said, we could see Butler take a bit of a step back if Adebayo is active. Butler’s usage rate is four percentage points higher when Adebayo is off the court, so we could see him defer a bit more tonight if he’s sharing the floor with Bam.

Without Dragic, we have seen Miami lean heavily on Tyler Herro ($8,000). Even though he hasn’t gone off, he played 37 and 43 minutes in the last two games. We know that Herro isn’t afraid to shoot, so he has plenty of upside in his current workload.

Kendrick Nunn ($4,200) should play bigger minutes without Dragic, but fouls have prevented this from being a reality in the last couple of games. Nunn picked up five fouls last game after picking up four fouls in Game 2. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he has the potential to be one of the top value plays on the slate.

Los Angeles Lakers

Anthony Davis ($11,400) is coming off of his worst game of the postseason. Going up against a shorthanded Heat frontcourt, he was only able to muster 15 points and 27.75 DKFP in Game 3. Even though I expect a bounce back, my expectations for his upside are a bit tempered if Adebayo returns. Bam is a much tougher matchup for AD than Olynyk. How much I like Davis depends on if Adebayo is able to return tonight.

With everything I said above considered, LeBron James ($18,000 CP/$12,000) is my favorite Captain play. Since I am leaning towards thinking Bam will be active, James is the higher upside play of the Lakers’ stars. LeBron has over 50 DKFP in every game of this series and is nearly averaging a triple-double.

Dwight Howard ($3,800) put together some big playoff games against the Nuggets, but his role took a step back in this series. The problem is that he’s not the best player to guard Olynyk. Due to his ability to step outside of the paint and make threes, Howard isn’t the ideal player to guard Olynyk. If Adebayo is active, we could see Howard play a few more minutes and put up a double-double.

If Adebyo doesn’t play, we could see the Lakers utilize more small lineups to match up against the Heat. This is what we saw in the last couple of games and it led to some solid value games from Markieff Morris ($2,800). In Game 3, he scored 31.5 DKFP, his best output of the playoffs. It looks like either Morris or Howard should turn in a solid value game, but they probably shouldn’t be included in the same lineup because their playing time is negatively correlated.

The Outcome

The Heat are back in this series. Not only did they win Game 3 as double-digit underdogs, the impending return of Bam Adebayo could make this is a really interesting last few games of the season. I still favor the Lakers to win, which is something I am confident in, but I am not writing the Heat off. I was willing to write them off prior to Game 3 and that was a mistake.

Final Series Score: Lakers 112, Heat 107

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround [$250K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See for full terms and conditions.