We had kind of a messy slate last week with Titans-Steelers getting postponed to Week 7, and Patriots-Chiefs getting pushed off the main slate to Monday night. It adds a new wrinkle that we got used to in baseball, and now need to adapt to in football. Bye weeks also start in Week 5, taking a couple more teams off the main slate.
Here’s what jumps out in my first look at Week 5.
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Quarterback
Expensive
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($7,900) — This slate has a ton of good QB value, so it’s either pay up for Jackson or pay down, in my mind. After a poor showing against the Chiefs on MNF, Jackson bounced back exactly as expected against Washington, finishing with 26.02 DKFP. He’s in position for a similar game against the Bengals, who he dominated last season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants ($7,400) — Dak’s been putting on a show through the air, but it hasn’t been translating to wins for the Cowboys. Despite scoring 43.8, 33.5 and 42.3 DKFP over the last three weeks, I think Dallas may look to switch it up this game. The Giants probably won’t get into the insane type of shootout we’ve seen the Cowboys live in these first few weeks, as they don’t have the firepower to take a huge lead. Look for Dallas to run the ball more in a game they must win at home.
Cheap
Daniel Jones, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys ($5,400) — Yes, I just talked down the Giants a bit, but a QB against the Cowboys right now just isn’t a spot you can fade. Jones scored 19.4 DKFP in Week 1, and hasn’t scored more than 11.0 DKFP since. It’s not the sexiest play in the world, but the spot doesn’t get any better. Jones is terrific value, as are some of the options below.
Other Options: Joe Burrow ($6,000), Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), Jarrett Stidham ($4,900)/Brian Hoyer ($4,900)
Running Back
Expensive
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants ($7,800) — As I eluded to, I like this spot a lot for ‘Zeke. Elliott’s fantasy value has still been strong, as he’s averaged 22.6 DKFP thanks to 20 receptions over the last three games. He still has three rushing touchdowns on the season, but is yet to go for over 100 yards on the ground. This sets up as a game for Dallas to build a lead and finally lean on ‘Zeke.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($6,800) — CEH has been racking up touches in the early going. While he hasn’t replicated the fantasy success he had in his debut against the Texans, he’s had some pretty tough matchups the last few weeks. Now the Chiefs sit as almost two-touchdown favorites at home against a Las Vegas defense allowing the most DKFP to the RB position. This is a breakout spot.
Cheap
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts ($6,500)/Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons ($6,400) — Because of the lack of pay up spots at QB (and even WR), I think we can look to lay some salary down at RB this week. While the matchup isn’t there for Hunt, the spot obviously is. Nick Chubb went on IR with a knee injury this week, leaving Hunt to step into a featured role for at least the next few weeks. Hunt was already averaging 17.4 DKFP, but Chubb’s had equal production himself. Even if Hunt only picks up half of Chubb’s touches, he becomes a stud RB1. As for Davis, the dude just keeps grinding in place of Christian McCaffrey, going over 22.0 DKFP for the second week in a row. The Falcons rank just 29th in DKFP allowed to RB, and just gave up 143 receiving yards to RBs on MNF against the Packers.
Other Options: Jerick McKinnon ($5,800), Todd Gurley ($5,700), Kenyan Drake ($5,700), Damien Harris ($4,300)
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Wide Receiver
Expensive
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets ($7,900) — With some big name WRs off this slate, it does make Hopkins pop. His salary is down $600, and the Jets are an absolute dumpster fire. I think we can find similar production at a cheaper price, but I fully understand the appeal. Only red flag here is that Hopkins played through a questionable tag with an injured ankle, and had his least productive game yet in Week 4.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600) — Outside of the Baltimore game that he got banged up in, Fuller’s having a great season. He had his second 100-yard performance in Week 4, finishing with 6-108-1 (25.8 DKFP), while he also had a last-second touchdown overturned, preventing a massive day. Up next is a matchup with Jacksonville at home, so I don’t see the success slowing down for Fuller. This is someone that’s thrived playing with Deshaun Watson ($6,900), and now with Hopkins gone, is the trusted WR1. Regardless of the coach, this duo should keep putting up numbers.
Cheap
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals ($5,800) — After missing a couple games, Crowder followed up his 27.5-DKFP Week 1 with a 7-104-0 line for 20.4 DKFP in his return in Week 4. Through two games, Crowder has caught 14-of-23 targets for 219 yards and a touchdown. Pretty much always playing from behind, and as the lone playmaker on offense, Crowder should be locked into a ton of targets almost every week. The only red flag is the potential QB switch, but even so, there’s only so many places the Jets can go with the ball.
Other Options: Michael Gallup ($5,400), Darius Slayton ($4,800), Tim Patrick ($4,400)
Tight End
Expensive
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,600) — Kittle returned from injury in Week 4, and was feasting on targets against the Eagles. He hauled in all 15 passes that went his way, finishing with 183 yards and a touchdown (43.1 DKFP). He’s in a terrific spot to keep momentum going against the Dolphins.
Cheap
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns ($4,200) — MAC is becoming one of the breakout fantasy stars this season, finding a way to produce week-after-week. Since essentially becoming the TE1 for Indy, he has nine receptions on 11 targets for 174 yards and two touchdowns — an average of 13.8 DKFP over three games. On tap next? A matchup against a Browns defense allowing the most DKFP to TE.
Other Options: Jonnu Smith ($4,900), Evan Engram ($4,600)
D/ST
Expensive
Denver Broncos D/ST ($3,400) at New England Patriots — Fading the Patriots offense at home isn’t generally a spot we look towards, but as long as Stidham or Hoyer is the guy this week, it’s an option to consider. The Broncos have eight sacks over the last two weeks, and the Pats are working with two offensive lineman out and QBs that are awful decision-makers.
Cheap
New York Jets D/ST ($2,500) vs. Arizona Cardinals — Again, this is a spot you hold your nose and hope for the best. But the Jets have still made some plays on defense, despite allowing a lot of points. The Cardinals have been turnover prone the last two weeks, and you’re getting a cheap D/ST play at home.
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