The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (SHCO) is the first tournament of a mini-Vegas swing on the PGA TOUR. The CJ CUP is moving to Las Vegas this season due to COVID-19 and many of the guys who are teeing it up at TPC Summerlin this week should make their way to Shadow Creek.
TPC Summerlin has played host since 2008, so we have a fair amount of course history this week. The golfers will be playing at some altitude with fast fairways, which means distance is not a prerequisite to success this week. Kevin Na (+7000), Webb Simpson (+1000) and Ryan Moore (+7000) have all won here, but this isn’t just a precision course like a Harbour Town. Bombers have also done well, with Bryson DeChambeau (+700) and Patrick Cantlay (+1850), winning in recent years. The difference in the “type” of golfer should tell us that not one golf style wins here, opening up the entire board for us to find value.
Over the past four years, the winners’ average odds are +10100, with Bryson being the shortest at +1400 in 2019 and Rod Pampling being the longest at +30000 in 2017.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) also made the shortlist, but Morikawa fits the bill when it comes down to closing a tournament. As mentioned in the DraftKings Preview, when talking about a second-shot golf course that also calls accuracy off-the-tee, the Cal Berkeley product should be considered one of the favorites. He’s had success at Muirfield Village, something former winners, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay share. He’s top-notch at recording birdies or better gained, ranking fourth over the previous 24 rounds. Morikawa should also love the greens here, which is evident from his two wins and two second-place finishes coming on bentgrass.
Benny An is the epitome of boom-or-bust. A top 12 at the BMW Championship and a 22nd-place finish at the PGA Championship are juxtaposed with three missed cuts in his past five tournaments. His struggles are closely tied, if not entirely tethered to his putting. He’s lost 10.5 strokes on the greens total in his previous two events but as Sergio showed us last week, you can lose strokes on the greens in nine straight tournaments and gain on your 10th — and WIN. Bentgrass is Benny’s preferred surface and, at this number, I’ll have some shares.
English has made nine straight cuts with only two missed in his past 22 starts — that’s incredible. He’s making the weekends and playing exceptionally well when he does, earning a fourth-place finish at the U.S. Open and a runner-up finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST, where Dustin Johnson won instead of English losing. Harris has been one of the best tee-to-green and is top 5 in SG: putting since the restart. Paul Casey, one of the best ball-strikers, is a much better bentgrass putter so he could find a hot flatstick, but this is more “buying” on how well English has been playing over “selling” on Casey.
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