Of the Division Games played today, we have one one potential elimination game, as the Astros are up 2-0 on the Athletics. The Braves and Dodgers both have a chance to go 2-0 in the series with victories of their own today. Let’s dive into this slate and get you ready for another day of Division Series games!
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ian Anderson, $8,200, ATL (-220) vs. MIA (+188) — Anderson had one hell of a playoff debut against the Reds, throwing six innings of no-run ball with just two hits allowed and nine strikeouts. Now, he’ll face a Marlins team that’s he’s faced twice already, tossing 8 2⁄3 innings with five runs allowed (one earned) on nine hits and 10 strikeouts. The Marlins are a hitting much better against lefties than they are righties, posting just a .302 wOBA with a .127 ISO and a 91 wRC+. With this in mind, it wasn’t surprising to see Anderson is the biggest favorite on this slate. At his salary of $8,200, he feels like one of the best options overall.
Other notable favorite: Masahiro Tanaka ($6,800, -125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (+105)
Highest Projected Total
TBR (+105; 4.5 runs ) vs. NYY (-125; 4.5 runs ) — Not all the games were listed as I wrote this early Wednesday morning but the nine projected runs for the Rays and Yankees was the highest listed. This very well could go over this total with Tanaka and Charlie Morton ($6,600) on the hill. Both of these pitchers have been wildly inconsistent and both offenses have been doing their part in this series thus far. The Yankees are slight favorites here but Tanaka might be just a bit worse than Morton is. While his .275 wOBA against lefties wasn’t bad, he did allow six home runs, a 4.88 FIP and a 51% fly ball rate. I would not be shocked if this ends up being the highest scoring game on the afternoon, and would be comfortable not only playing this game, but taking the over on nine runs.
Other notable team totals: Astros (4.5) vs. Oakland Athletics
No weather concerns!
Splits to Start
UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on game, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Charlie Morton, .337, 4.66
Pablo Lopez, .310, 3.26
Jesus Luzardo, .297, 2.52
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy .174, 3.48
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Zach Davies, .222, 3.34
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy, .368, 6.43
Masahiro Tanaka, .365, 3.85
Jesus Luzardo, .326, 4.68
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Pablo Lopez, .241, 2.91
Clayton Kershaw, .249, 2.92
Ian Anderson, .269, 3.46
Pitcher to Build Around
Ian Anderson, ATL vs. MIA, $8,200 — As mentioned, for his salary, I don’t think you’re getting a better play than Anderson this afternoon. It’s hard not to want to target against this Marlins team that posted some of the worst numbers in the league against righties during the regular season and also sport a 24.2 K%. In those two games against the Marlins, Anderson would sport a 23.3% K%, a 2.27 FIP and just a 6.9% hard-hit rate. You can’t beat Anderson at $8,200 this afternoon.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. TBR, $4,400 — I mean, it’s pretty simple at this point. If Stanton is just going to continue to mash home runs every game, you should probably use him. He’s hit a home run in every Yankees playoff game thus far and has knocked in 11. He’s averaging a ridiculous 22.5 DKFP over that span with six runs scored. Morton, who only pitched 38 innings during the regular season, allowed just under a home run per nine innings. He’s relatively done a good job at keeping the ball in the park but his fly ball rate at 33.6% is the highest we’ve seen in his career, dating back to 2008.
Save Big by Drafting
Nick Markakis, ATL vs. MIA, $3,200 — While Markakis isn’t crushing the ball right now, he’s quietly put together a seven-game hitting streak. Let’s be honest, his numbers aren’t going to blow you away but on these slates, you have a lot of players you want to pay up for and not a ton of value to work with. If you’re looking to stack the Braves, putting in Markakis will not only make it unique but will help soften the blow of how expensive it is.
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