MLB Best Bets: Baseball Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 7

We’ve got more playoff baseball on Wednesday, including two tightly-contested games judging by the moneylines and one run-line spread that I think the odds are too good on. With the stage set, I’ve picked out my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves

Braves -1.5 Runs (-103)

In what is a pivot off of yesterday’s stance about the GOATs of the postseason, the Marlins, I’m backing the Braves to continue the beatdown of Miami and take a decisive 2-0 lead in the best-of-five NLDS. On one side, you have maybe the league’s best offense this season in the Braves, who are in a three-way tie for first with a 126 wRC+ against right-handers, such as the one they will see today in Pablo Lopez. On the other side, there’s the Marlins, who have the seventh-worst wRC+ versus righties. Ian Anderson looked absolutely unhittable against the Reds in his only other outing this postseason, replicating the elite swing-and-miss numbers we saw over the course of the regular season.

I see no reason why Anderson, who has limited hard contact and generated whiffs galore this year, won’t have success against this Miami lineup. I do find it hard to believe, though, that the Braves don’t cross the plate four or five times against the good-not-great Lopez and the struggling Marlins bullpen, which ranks fifth-worst in baseball with a 5.50 ERA.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Division Collision [$50K to 1st]

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Yankees ML (-130)

It’s hard to rate Charlie Morton this year against the Yankees, with just four innings to work with over the course of two starts, but in those starts he allowed seven baserunners and one run. It becomes a bit easier when you consider Morton’s larger body of work, which includes a 4.74 ERA and lots of failures in the past against many of these Yankees. Brett Gardner has homered off of Morton three times and gone 8-22 off him in his career, while Giancarlo Stanton owns a .346 career average and has also homered off Morton, as has Aaron Hicks. The point I’m trying to make here is the Yankees know Morton dating back to his days in Houston and he’s worse now. While you could say the same about Tanaka, he’s historically shut down the Rays, with six of his last seven outings against Tampa spanning the last two seasons being dominating performances.

Ultimately, it comes down to how much you trust the history with Tanaka. Do you believe in a still-great 2.70 postseason ERA in nine starts, and his masterful work against this lineup over the past two seasons? Or will you be judging him by his last postseason outing against Cleveland, one interrupted by rain, and his one clunker against Tampa Bay this year, when he allowed five earned over four innings? I wouldn’t fault you for being skeptical, or even fading Tanaka, but I just think there’s too much here to not believe in Tanaka and the Yankees’ bats against a deteriorating Charlie Morton.

Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s

Athletics ML (-107)

If there were ever a time to get a win against the Astros in this series, it would be with Jose Urquidy on the mound. The 25-year-old righthander has struggled to the tune of a 5.22 expected ERA, an average exit velocity that ranks in the 24th percentile in baseball and a very poor strikeout rate. He also relies primarily on his four-seam fastball, a pitch he throws 54.5% of the time, which should bode well for the Athletics. Ramon Laureano, Tommy La Stella, Mark Canha, Robbie Grossman and Marcus Semien all hit over .260 against the pitch, while Jake Lamb holds a massive 60% hard-hit rate. Even Khris Davis has seen success this season against four-seamers. This is a good fastball-hitting team, and while that can be deceiving at times because not all four-seamers are equal, this particular case should lead you to believe the A’s tee off on Wednesday. Urquidy has a very average fastball and doesn’t hide it well, as evidenced by the alarming number of hard-hit balls he sees.

Oakland will have a great day at the plate, and I expect them to win in any scenario, even one where Jesus Luzardo gives up five runs and this turns into a slugfest. I’m that confident in fading Urquidy.

Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.