Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) – Robby Anderson ($5,900) – Calvin Ridley ($7,500)
Atlanta has ceded an ungodly 353 passing yards per game and a 118.0 passer rating against, which sets up Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater for a potential blow-up game in Week 5. The Falcons have the second-worst yards per play average in the league on defense, so there’s reason to think Bridgewater will be pushing the ball downfield here more than he has the last two weeks against better secondaries.
As for stacking targets, WR Robby Anderson been used across the field so far — both downfield and on short slants and screens — so much so that he actually leads the Panthers in targets on the year. The matchup is good enough that you could consider a double WR stack with either Curtis Samuel ($4,800) or DJ Moore ($6,000) also attached but, based on usage and actual production, Anderson is the main cog I’d want paired with the Panthers’ QB right now.
Panthers RB Mike Davis ($6,400) could also see a ton of targets again and likely makes for a good component of any Panthers stack, while the Falcons Todd Gurley ($5,700) has good upside against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. I’d rather go for the home run, though, and finish off any Bridgewater-stack with Falcons WR Calvin Ridley ($7,500). A weird combination of game flow and, perhaps, injury issues kept him off the scoreboard against the Packers but, given the Panthers’ lack of any true shutdown corner, he’ll have a great chance to bounce-back with a blow-up game. Look for him to push for 10-plus targets against a defense with a non-existent pass rush.
Just Missed: Deshaun Watson ($6,900) – Will Fuller ($6,600) – David Johnson ($5,200) – James Robinson ($6,700)
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,900)
The Jaguars defense has hit a wall in its last two games, as they’ve allowed 64 points against, with opposing QBs completing just under 80% of their passes in that span. The Texans have had a busy week after the firing of their Head Coach and offensive play-caller, but should be in a spot to bounce back big time against Jacksonville. Part of the Jags’ issues have arisen from injuries, as they lost starting corner back DJ Hayden long-term and could also be without two of their best players for Week 5 in corner CJ Henderson and Myles Jack. Watson has struggled to find the same kind of consistency in 2020 that we’ve seen from him in the past when DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) was still around, but he and Will Fuller ($6,600) could have a field day in this spot against a Jags team who is running out of bodies in the secondary. Look for a bounce-back from the beleaguered QB who is set up for a “quiet the haters” type of performance.
Just Missed: Lamar Jackson ($7,900)
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Running Back
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,800)
McKinnon separated himself from Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,000) last week, playing on 92% of the snaps and taking 21 touches, which included seven catches on eight targets. The bump in workload is great to see and it’s even greater when you consider who his next opponent is. The Dolphins have given up the most yards per play on defense so far this year and have already allowed seven TDs to the RB position. While TDs have an element of luck about them, Miami’s rush defense doesn’t grade out well by any metric, as they also rate out second-worst in the league by DVOA (via Football Outsiders). It is possible that Raheem Mostert ($6,100; knee) comes back this week, but expect McKinnon to remain a part of the game plan regardless. He has lots of potential upside even if Mostert does return, but could be in the “best play on the slate” conversation if he has the backfield to himself here for one more week.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,000)
Washington has started to hand Gibson a more meaningful workload as he’s now taken eight of the 11 red zone touches give to Washington RBs over the last three games. The rookie received a season high 17 touches last week and he was productive — especially as a receiver — turning five targets into four catches and 82 yards. He’s also converted three TDs as a runner over the last three weeks and that has seemingly allowed Washington to push Peyton Barber ($4,000) to the scrap heap, as Barber has only seven touches over the last three games. The matchup this week isn’t anything to write home about, but the change in QB to Kyle Allen ($4,100) should help Gibson’s viability as a receiver. Allen ensured Carolina RBs caught at least seven passes in each of the last seven games of 2019 and his limitations should mean good things for Gibson’s overall upside going forward.
Just Missed: Damien Harris ($4,300)
Wide Receiver
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,300)
Brown has yet to find the end zone in 2020, but that bagel isn’t a stat I’d expect to last for much longer. The second-year player leads the Ravens in overall targets and receiving yards by hefty margins and gets a solid matchup here against a Bengals secondary who has struggled to contain other teams number one receivers — allowing four TDs to opponents’ WR1’s over their last three games. The lack of TD production so far and a perceived poor game flow should ensure that Brown’s ownership stays extremely low here. With his targets remaining level in both blowouts and solid game scripts, Brown is going to have opportunities against a non-elite secondary to bust out a big play or two, making him a nice low-sentiment target this week for GPPs.
Jeff Smith, New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals ($3,000)
The Jets marched out the relatively unknown Smith in their last game due to injuries and the former college QB made an immediate impact, playing 95% of the snaps and converting nine targets into seven catches and 81 yards. While trusting the Jets to do anything right is a risk, Smith is an elite athlete with sub-4.4 speed and a 6.87 second three-cone who looked great at creating space and corralling catches on the run against the Broncos. Both Denzel Mims ($3,000) and Breshad Perriman ($4,000) look like they’re on the wrong side of questionable to return this week, as they both missed Wednesday’s practice. Smith would be going up against an Arizona secondary that has been beaten by speedy wideouts like Terry McLaurin ($6,100) and Robby Anderson ($5,900) in recent weeks. If the Jets don’t add any healthy bodies for Week 5 at WR, Smith is going to make for a very intriguing minimum-priced option in GPPs.
Just Missed: Hunter Renfrow ($4,900)
Tight End
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($4,000)
The Steelers TE usage has started to show its hand over the first three games, with the newly acquired Ebron out-snapping and out-targeting incumbent Vance McDonald ($2,800) in each game this year. Ebron’s now remained steady at a 75% snap rate the last two games and saw a season-high five targets in Week 3 — which he converted into five catches and a TD. While there’s a lot of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, the fact Ebron’s seen his share of the target pie rise over the first three games — and has seen the same number of red zone looks as Diontae Johnson ($5,600) — speaks to the fact that we should expect more games similar to his 5-56-1 Week 3 performance in the future. This week we should possibly even expect more than that as the Steelers take on the Eagles, a team who has had all kinds of issues defending against athletic TEs this season. Philly has now given up five TDs to the position over four games and allowed opposing TEs to convert 87% of their targets into catches. Ebron’s price remains ultra-affordable here and he’s in a spot to put up a ceiling-type game in a great matchup.
Just Missed: Tyler Higbee ($5,600)
D/ST
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,800) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers got an unexpected bye in Week 4, so they’ll be coming in well rested against the Eagles here. Philly stiffened up a bit against the 49ers, but they still feature a banged up offensive line who is just 20th in the league in adjusted sack rate. They’ll be going up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes in ranked second in sacks on the year — despite playing one fewer game than everyone else — and also ranks second in adjusted sack rate. The Steelers overall DKFP output hasn’t been otherworldly thus far (just 9.3 DKFP per game), but they’ve also yet to score a defensive TD. Given Carson Wentz’s ($5,600) issues — seven interceptions on the year — and the weak offensive line, some kind of big play seems likely for a group that seems very worth paying up for if you can find the room.
Just missed: Miami Dolphins ($2,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.