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Elimination is the key word of the day, as four teams could be sent home packing today. The Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers are all sitting at two wins and are all one victory away from punching their ticket to the Championship Series.
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Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Division Collision [$50K to 1st]
Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kyle Wright, $7,200, ATL (-150) vs. MIA (+128) — Only two games were listed on DraftKings Sportsbook as I write this Thursday morning. Wright was the biggest favorite among those games as they try to knock out the Marlins. He’s faced the Marlins twice already and let me tell you, the results did not go well. Through seven innings, the Marlins tagged him for eight runs on nine hits with eight walks and only five strikeouts. Wright has been far from a consistent pitcher and his command has been a big issue, sporting a 14.3% BB% on the season. While the Marlins don’t boast much power at all against righties, ending the regular season with the lowest ISO at .127, they’ve had Wright’s number. This would keep me off of backing him and the Braves in this game.
Other notable favorite: Jordan Montgomery — $7,400, -136 vs. Tampa Bay Rays (+155)
Highest Projected Total
TB (+115; 4.5 runs ) vs. NYY (-136; 4.5 runs ) — We have a nine run projection for the Rays and Yankees game today as Jordan Montgomery ($7,400) takes on Ryan Thompson ($5,100), who is expected to open this game. Ryan Yarbrough ($6,800) is expected to enter after him in long relief. This is a great spot for the Rays against the lefty Montgomery, as they were one of the best clubs in these matchups. The Rays had a .347 wOBA with a .217 ISO and a 124 wRC+ against lefties, all of which were among the highest in the league. Montgomery was absolutely wrecked in his one start against the Rays, allowing four runs on five hits through just 2⁄3 of an inning. With the season on the line, I would not feel good about Montgomery getting the start if I’m a Yankees fan.
Other notable team totals: Braves (4.5) vs. Miami Marlins
Weather Concerns
No weather concerns!
Splits to Start
UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on game, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Editor’s note: Dodgers SP Dustin May will start tonight’s game vs. the Padres.
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .444, 6.41
Kyle Wright, .393, 6.79
Adrian Morejon, .377, 5.61
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Julio Urias .212, 3.87
Sixto Sanchez, .232, 1.99
Jordan Montgomery, .277, 2.37
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Editor’s note: Dodgers SP Dustin May will start tonight’s game vs. the Padres.
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Adrian Morejon, .356, 6.19
Ryan Thompson, .339, 4.48
Jordan Montgomery, .338, 4.37
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Cristian Javier, .208, 4.34
Frankie Montas, .252, 4.37
Kyle Wright, .284, 5.07
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Sixto Sanchez, MIA vs. ATL, $8,100 — This is not a good slate for pitching, at all. It’s going to be really tough to find two pitchers you really trust to put in your lineup. I’m rolling with Sanchez in this spot because he does have some good strikeout upside against a team that hovered around league average in K% against righties at 23.2%. In his two starts against the Braves, he was hit hard in one and pitched extremely well in the others. His 3.41 FIP through nine innings against the Braves is good enough for me when you consider the slim pickings we have offered.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mike Brosseau, TBR vs. NYY, $5,000 — We have a lot to like about the Rays in this game today and Brosseau is one of my top bats to target. He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching during the regular season and ended with a .455 wOBA, a .420 ISO and four of his five home runs. While he hasn’t been in the lineup consistently, he should draw the start today with Montgomery on the mound. On the year against righties, Montgomery sports a .338 wOBA with a 4.37 FIP.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK, $3,700 — Frankie Montas is making the start for the Athletics and that’s some great news for the lefties in this Astros lineup. Montas has been lit up in these matchups, as evidenced by his .444 wOBA and 6.41 FIP against lefties. Brantley is simply too cheap for this matchup and is having a good series already, going 4-for-14 with a double and two RBI. Hitting in the heart of this lineup, Brantley is in a fantastic position at a dirt cheap salary considering the matchup. Against righties, Brantley has a .398 wOBA and a .195 ISO on the year.
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