Quite frankly, the division series could wrap up completely on Thursday, as each matchup has a team up to two wins. With the way I’m thinking though, that’s not going to happen. We have four MLB games on the board and plenty of baseball betting opportunities to take advantage of on DraftKings Sportsbook, so let’s get right into it.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees:
I’m shocked that we’re getting plus money on this play. The Rays were one of the best offensive teams in the league against lefties and now we’re being offered plus money? Take my money, please and thank you.
Jordan Montgomery is taking the hill for the Yankees and already got tagged for four runs on five hits through 2⁄3 of an inning in his only start against the Rays this season. Overall, Montgomery really struggled away from Yankee Stadium, throwing 17 1⁄3 innings and posting a .369 wOBA, a 4.23 FIP and three of the seven home runs he gave up. The Rays crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .347 wOBA, a .217 ISO and a 124 wRC+, all of which were among the best in the league. Truly, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense to me but I’m not going to complain. The Yankees’ bullpen, which many thought was going to be a strength of this team, has been one of its biggest downfalls.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
This total is just too low for me to ignore. The Braves can knock almost any pitcher around but they’ll also give up quite a few themselves. During the season, the Braves allowed an average of 4.5 runs per game as they tried to figure out their rotation. Today, Kyle Wright is taking the mound and he’s not someone I’m expecting is going to quiet the Marlins’ bats. One can argue that facing righties isn’t the strength of this Marlins team, which is very true. The .302 wOBA, the lowest ISO at .127 and a 24.2% K% they produced is nothing impressive. When you talk about unimpressive things, however, Wright should also be in that conversation.
His command was extremely shaky in the 38 innings he pitched, posting a 14.3% BB%. For as bad as the Marlins’ bats were against righties, they were still better than league average with a 9.5% BB%. If they can be patient, they’ll get on base against Wright. I simply could not take the under on a player who walks as many hitters as Wright does. If this total was set at 4.5, I would likely be looking at the under. With it set as it is, however, the over is the play for me.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.