Week 5 is likely going to be remembered as the COVID week! The issue the NFL is dealing with is starting to run rampant as the league scrambles to try and contain it. Nonetheless, we still have plenty of games (scheduled), so let’s dive into the info for Sunday’s 12-game slate.
Feel free to drop me a follow as well on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Baltimore Ravens (-670; -12.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+510)
As they were last week, the Ravens are once again the biggest favorites as they host the Bengals. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 24.8 points per game, which is ranked 20th in the league. The Ravens defense looked better against the Washington Football Team in Week 4 but did allow Dwayne Haskins to throw for his best game this season. While on paper this looks like a no-brainer for the Ravens, I think we can also be optimistic for the Bengals to keep this competitive.
If we know anything, Joe Burrow ($6,000) is going to throw the ball. He’s averaging 44.2 pass attempts, topping out at 61 in Week 2 against the Browns. What plays in his favor has been an extreme lack of pass rush from the Ravens. Prior to this game, Burrow has been under pressure on 37% of his dropbacks, leading to a 50% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt. With a clean pocket, he has a 72% completion rate and averages 6.6 YPA. On the surface, it doesn’t feel as if these teams are close and, quite frankly, the Ravens are still the attractive option. Still, from a daily fantasy perspective, Burrow draws more appeal than you may have considered.
Other notable favorites: Kansas City Chiefs (-625; -12) vs. Las Vegas Raideres (+500), Dallas Cowboys (-400; -9.5) vs. New York Giants (+330)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Las Vegas Raiders (21.5 points) at Kansas City Chiefs (33.5 points; -12) 56 points
The team total for the Chiefs is massive at 33.5 against the Raiders. They’re one of two teams on this slate with a team total over 30 points — the other being the Cowboys at 31.5 against the Giants. The Raiders have been a team you can score against, allowing an average of 27.8 per game, which ranks as the 10th highest total in the league.
It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Raiders to try and stop this Chiefs’ offense. For one, Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner — tasked with trying to stop Tyreek Hill ($6,900) — is going to be a disaster. Joyner has been targeted against 25 times and has allowed 19 receptions for 181 yards, 110 of which have come after the catch. The Raiders have also been one of the worst teams against the run, allowing an average of 30.3 DKFP, 114 rushing and 69 receiving yards. The Chiefs have so many ways to beat this defense that even the inflated 33.5 team total feels obtainable. With that in mind, be prepared to see some heavy ownership on the Chiefs players, especially Hill, who is $1K cheaper than he was back in Week 1.
Put your DraftKings daily fantasy football skills to the test against other readers and writers of DraftKings Playbook! Check out the new DraftKings Content Battleground and enter your lineup for the Week 5 contest.
DVP Matchups
This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.
Worst QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 11.2, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, 12.6, 2nd
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 17.0, 3rd
Best QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 35.5, 32nd
Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, 27.4, 30th
San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, 24.8, 29th
Worst RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, 14.0, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 15.6, 2nd
Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, 15.9 3rd
Best RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, 38.8, 32nd
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 37.8, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, 34.9, 29th
Worst WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 27.8, 1st
Los Angeles Rams, Washington Football Team, 28.0, 2nd
Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Rams, 31.9, 5th
Best WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, 53.0 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, 52.2, 30th
New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, 45.6, 28th
Worst TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 4.5, 1st
Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, 6.1, 2nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, 6.4, 3rd
Best TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 26.9 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, 21.9, 30th
Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, 20.0, 29th
Target Report
Week 4 Target Leaders
Week 17 Playoff Implications
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Over/Under | Playoff Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Over/Under | Playoff Implication |
| Dalls Cowboys | New York Giants | DAL -3 | 45 | Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS |
| Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | CLE -9 | 42 | CLE W needed |
| Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | BUF -3.5 | 43 | MIA W needed |
| Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | BAL -12.5 | 44 | BAL W needed |
| Arizona Cardinals | LA Rams | ARI -3.5 | 40.5 | Winner goes to playoffs |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | IND -14 | 49.5 | IND W needed |
| Tennesse Titans | Houston Texans | TEN -7.5 | 56 | TEN W to clinch AFC South |
| Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | GB -5.5 | 51 | GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye |
| New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | NO -6.5 | 47.5 | NO shot at No.1 Seed |
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | SEA -6.5 | 46 | SEA shot at No.1 Seed |
DraftKings Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders, $7,700 — This is going to be a week where you could see people paying down at the quarterback position. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that as we have some options like Burrow, Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600). If that’s the case, then I’ll take Mahomes each and every time. I mentioned earlier, this secondary is going to have a hellacious time trying to stop the Chiefs’ pass catchers and if I can get Mahomes at lower than usual ownership, even better. With little pass rush to deal with from the Raiders, Mahomes sports a 72% completion percentage with no pressure, while he also averages 7.6 YPA with eight of his 11 touchdowns thrown.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders, $6,900 — I still can’t get over how cheap Hill is entering this game. As I mentioned, he’ll see Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner in coverage out of the slot, which is where Hill has played on 51% of his snaps. Joyner is allowing an average of 45.2 receiving yards per game and the yards after catch number is huge at 110 overall. In fact, that number is tied for the sixth-highest in the league amongst all corners. While Mahomes may not generate some of his highest ownership, I fully expect Hill to be one of the more popular choices at receiver.
Top Running Back To Consider
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, $6,700 — Robinson continues to feel underpriced considering he’s as involved as much as he is. Robinson crossed over the 20 touch mark in Week 4 against the Bengals, carrying the ball 17 times and catching all four of his targets for a combined 107 yards. Now, he draws a very enticing matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Texans. This team simply can not stop the run and they’ve allowed an average of 5.3 YPC and 8.1 YPR to opposing backs. The beauty of Robinson is that he doesn’t get scripted out of these games and he handled 100% of the work last week. At $6.7K, he needs to be locked in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.