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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 5

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 5 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Week 5 is likely going to be remembered as the COVID week! The issue the NFL is dealing with is starting to run rampant as the league scrambles to try and contain it. Nonetheless, we still have plenty of games (scheduled), so let’s dive into the info for Sunday’s 12-game slate.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Baltimore Ravens (-670; -12.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+510)

As they were last week, the Ravens are once again the biggest favorites as they host the Bengals. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 24.8 points per game, which is ranked 20th in the league. The Ravens defense looked better against the Washington Football Team in Week 4 but did allow Dwayne Haskins to throw for his best game this season. While on paper this looks like a no-brainer for the Ravens, I think we can also be optimistic for the Bengals to keep this competitive.

If we know anything, Joe Burrow ($6,000) is going to throw the ball. He’s averaging 44.2 pass attempts, topping out at 61 in Week 2 against the Browns. What plays in his favor has been an extreme lack of pass rush from the Ravens. Prior to this game, Burrow has been under pressure on 37% of his dropbacks, leading to a 50% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt. With a clean pocket, he has a 72% completion rate and averages 6.6 YPA. On the surface, it doesn’t feel as if these teams are close and, quite frankly, the Ravens are still the attractive option. Still, from a daily fantasy perspective, Burrow draws more appeal than you may have considered.

Other notable favorites: Kansas City Chiefs (-625; -12) vs. Las Vegas Raideres (+500), Dallas Cowboys (-400; -9.5) vs. New York Giants (+330)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Las Vegas Raiders (21.5 points) at Kansas City Chiefs (33.5 points; -12) 56 points

The team total for the Chiefs is massive at 33.5 against the Raiders. They’re one of two teams on this slate with a team total over 30 points — the other being the Cowboys at 31.5 against the Giants. The Raiders have been a team you can score against, allowing an average of 27.8 per game, which ranks as the 10th highest total in the league.

It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Raiders to try and stop this Chiefs’ offense. For one, Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner — tasked with trying to stop Tyreek Hill ($6,900) — is going to be a disaster. Joyner has been targeted against 25 times and has allowed 19 receptions for 181 yards, 110 of which have come after the catch. The Raiders have also been one of the worst teams against the run, allowing an average of 30.3 DKFP, 114 rushing and 69 receiving yards. The Chiefs have so many ways to beat this defense that even the inflated 33.5 team total feels obtainable. With that in mind, be prepared to see some heavy ownership on the Chiefs players, especially Hill, who is $1K cheaper than he was back in Week 1.

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DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 11.2, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, 12.6, 2nd
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 17.0, 3rd

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 35.5, 32nd
Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, 27.4, 30th
San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, 24.8, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, 14.0, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 15.6, 2nd
Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, 15.9 3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, 38.8, 32nd
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 37.8, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, 34.9, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 27.8, 1st
Los Angeles Rams, Washington Football Team, 28.0, 2nd
Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Rams, 31.9, 5th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, 53.0 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, 52.2, 30th
New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, 45.6, 28th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, 4.5, 1st
Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, 6.1, 2nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, 6.4, 3rd

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 26.9 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, 21.9, 30th
Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, 20.0, 29th

Target Report

Week 4 Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders, $7,700 — This is going to be a week where you could see people paying down at the quarterback position. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that as we have some options like Burrow, Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600). If that’s the case, then I’ll take Mahomes each and every time. I mentioned earlier, this secondary is going to have a hellacious time trying to stop the Chiefs’ pass catchers and if I can get Mahomes at lower than usual ownership, even better. With little pass rush to deal with from the Raiders, Mahomes sports a 72% completion percentage with no pressure, while he also averages 7.6 YPA with eight of his 11 touchdowns thrown.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders, $6,900 — I still can’t get over how cheap Hill is entering this game. As I mentioned, he’ll see Raiders CB Lamarcus Joyner in coverage out of the slot, which is where Hill has played on 51% of his snaps. Joyner is allowing an average of 45.2 receiving yards per game and the yards after catch number is huge at 110 overall. In fact, that number is tied for the sixth-highest in the league amongst all corners. While Mahomes may not generate some of his highest ownership, I fully expect Hill to be one of the more popular choices at receiver.

Top Running Back To Consider

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, $6,700 — Robinson continues to feel underpriced considering he’s as involved as much as he is. Robinson crossed over the 20 touch mark in Week 4 against the Bengals, carrying the ball 17 times and catching all four of his targets for a combined 107 yards. Now, he draws a very enticing matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Texans. This team simply can not stop the run and they’ve allowed an average of 5.3 YPC and 8.1 YPR to opposing backs. The beauty of Robinson is that he doesn’t get scripted out of these games and he handled 100% of the work last week. At $6.7K, he needs to be locked in.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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