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DraftKings Sportsbook NFL Week 5: Football Betting Insights and Analysis

Matt Meiselman give analysis for Week 5 betting insights including line movement, betting analysis and themes.

NFL Week 5 appears to have a lot of moving parts, with games getting rescheduled and quarterbacks shuffling in and out. For this week’s DraftKings Sportsbook betting insights and analysis, there are some interesting trends to pay attention to, with many of the top teams struggling early on in this season. The betting lines are also still TBD for a few of the games, so be sure to check back Sunday before kickoff for updates on those and more.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • The Colts were favored as of Friday but the Browns are now -1, and with betting close to split on this game the line movement may have to do with some injuries on the Colts’ defense.
  • With the Cowboys struggling week after week, DraftKings bettors seem to have taken an increased liking to the Giants in Week 5. The Giants were +9 on Friday, but have now moved down to +7.5
  • The Vikings have crossed a key number against the Seahawks for Sunday night, first moving from +7.5 to 7, and now down to +6.5. This is especially significant given that the betting is fairly lopsided in favor of the Seahawks, but the spread has still moved substantially towards the Vikings.
  • The Raiders opened at +13 against the Chiefs with the total at 56, but those numbers are now at +11 and 54.

Betting Splits Breakdown

The Week 5 betting splits look somewhat unusual, as many of the “best” teams in the NFL have had significant struggles through four games and bettors appear to be souring on them. The Baltimore Ravens won by two scores against the Washington Football Team last week, but the ugly home loss to the Chiefs in the prior week still seems to be having an effect. More than 50% of DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are on the Bengals to cover the +12 spread in Baltimore, and the prevailing expectation is that the Ravens will continue to have some struggles.

The theme of popular underdogs carries into a few other games as well, with the Chargers getting roughly half of the betting volume as 7.5-point underdogs against the 2-2 Saints. The Raiders are at almost half of the bets against the Chiefs, while the Dolphins are all the way up at 71% of the bets as 9-point underdogs in San Francisco. The 49ers, in particular, were a big let down for many bettors on Sunday night against the Eagles, losing outright as 9-point home favorites. It’s also still unclear who will be playing quarterback for them in Week 5.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

  • Panthers (+3 to +1.5)
  • Washington (+9 to +7.5)
  • Vikings (+7.5 to +7)

Totals

  • Eagles-Steelers (47.5 to 44.5)
  • Dolphins-49ers (49.5 to 51.5)

The Falcons looked really bad on Monday night against the Packers and, as a result, the Panthers line has come down incrementally throughout the week, now reaching +1.5. Julio Jones sat out the second half of that game and is questionable for this week, so that’s probably a big part of why there’s been such substantial line movement in this game, too. For Washington, it’s interesting to see the line move in their favor with the QB switch from Dwayne Haskins to Kyle Allen, as bettors appear to be viewing this as an upgrade. It’s not a big surprise, though, as Haskins has struggled immensely this season and Allen had a semi-competent season with the Panthers in 2019.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Jones will be inactive today vs. the Panthers.

For the Vikings-Seahawks game, the line movement is only half a point, but it comes with the public heavily skewed toward Seattle. Half-point moves aren’t generally worth much consideration but 7.5 to 7 involves a key number, and the threshold for movement there is a bit higher. The Seahawks won in Miami last week, but didn’t play particularly well, and the Vikings were impressive in a road victory over the Texans. Some percentage of bettors definitely seem to be buying into the recent performance here, which looks a little more favorable for the Vikings.

For totals, the most significant line movement occurred earlier this week when the Eagles-Steelers total dropped by 3 points. The Eagles are still missing several offensive starters — notably at wide receiver — but their defense also played well against the 49ers and has been above average overall in 2020. The Steelers are one of the league’s best defenses, ranking third in Defensive DVOA to this point, so there’s a reasonable expectation for a low scoring game for this in-state rivalry.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.