The Los Angeles Lakers will look to close out a wild NBA season and become NBA Champions on Friday night, but the resilient Miami Heat have shown they won’t go easy. It’s getting increasingly tougher to bet these games with the same numbers game after game. While I think the Lakers will be able to close this one out, I’m not willing to lay the points. However, there are some props to keep things interesting.
Here’s what jumps out to me in Game 5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
After finishing off Denver with a monster 38-16-10 trip-dub, ‘Bron is yet to post one in the NBA Finals. He feels due, and the numbers back that up. James has a double-double with boards in three of the four games and finished with nine rebounds and nine assists in the game he missed it. LeBron also has at least eight assists in each game. He’s been right there, and in a closeout game with another potential Finals MVP ripe for the picking, there’s a LeBron narrative in this one that I think is worth buying in on. We’re really just talking about getting over the hump with the assists here, as LeBron is already -335 to record a double-double. The rebounds seem to have been there so far, and his assist prop is juiced to -152 on over 8.5.
This one’s a little dangerous, but the numbers take us here. Bam averaged 5.0 assists per game this season and is one of Miami’s best playmakers, but he also has one assist in 54 minutes in the Finals. Most of that has to do with Jimmy Butler taking over as the primary ball handler in pretty much every situation, totaling 35 assists over the last three games. The way Butler’s going right now, that should continue to be the game plan.
Outside of Butler’s historic 40-point Game 3, he just hasn’t been able to keep up with LeBron from a scoring standpoint. Butler’s other games have totaled 23, 25 and 22 points, with LeBron scoring 25 or more in each game and outscoring Butler in each of the other three contests. With Bam back to take some of the scoring load off Butler, I think this is still a little underpriced due to Butler’s uncharacteristic 40-point game. Those are few and far between for Jimmy.
Again, I don’t love laying all the juice here, but this seems like a poorly priced scoring matchup. The reason it’s so close, or even offered, is likely due to both players finishing Game 4 with 15 points. However, KCP knocked down three triples for the first time since Game 4 against Denver, also playing his most minutes since that game. He could always get hot, but KCP is a role player that scored just five points in the Game 3 loss and averaged 9.5 on the season. It seems unfair to even put this number up against an All-Star, even if he is working his way back from injury. Bam looked dominant at times in Game 4, and we should see him take a lot more than eight shots, especially after shooting 6-for-8.
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