One quarter of the NFL season is already in the books and as we move on to Week 5, we take a look at some of the most prominent betting trends at DraftKings Sportsbook through the first four weeks of the 2020 NFL season. Below you’ll find a breakdown of the profit drivers for bettors to this point, as well as analysis on the futures betting markets for things like Super Bowl winners and MVPs.
The Packers and Seahawks are both 4-0 to start the season and both are 4-0 against the spread, and this has obviously produced strong results for bettors who have been smart enough to back them in their games. The Chiefs are 4-0 as well and 3-1 ATS, but they won as underdogs in what has probably been the highest-profile game of the season when they beat the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Steelers and Bills round out the Top 5 as undefeated teams, with a pair of local teams in the Broncos and Eagles making this list as well after strong showings in recent primetime games.
For the most profitable players, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Alvin Kamara atop this list, as he’s already hauled in 30 passes for 321 yards and scored seven combined touchdowns (rushing and receiving). Carson Wentz at No. 2 is a little more unusual considering how poorly the Eagles have played on offense this season, but Wentz had one extremely profitable play when he scored the first touchdown of the game against the 49ers, and that one rushing TD appears to have gone a long way for DraftKings Sportsbook bettors.
It’s been a good start to the NFL season for DraftKings bettors overall as the three most profitable teams (Packers, Chiefs and Seahawks) are also the top three teams in terms of both bets and handle. The Chiefs were a popular pick for the Super Bowl coming into the 2020 season, but the Packers and Seahawks have emerged from slightly off the board and neither team is currently in the Top 3 for most bet on teams to win it all this year. The Ravens and Buccaneers have drawn more attention in the future betting markets, and while both are still likely contenders, they haven’t been as successful on a week-to-week basis.
Looking deeper into Super Bowl betting, the Chiefs remain at the top in terms of betting odds with a repeat looking increasingly likely with each win. The Seahawks and Packers have predictably seen a surge in their championship odds as well, and both have passed the Saints to move into the top two spots for shortest odds in the NFC. The Bills are worth a mention here too, as their Super Bowl odds have been cut in half largely due to their 4-0 start, as they’ve taken a commanding lead in the AFC East.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are a few winless teams that have become huge longshots, as expected based on their early-season results. The more notable, and probably surprising, change is for the 49ers, who are now 2-2 after a bad home loss to the Eagles this past Sunday night. The 49ers are still squarely in the playoff hunt, but the odds shifts have more justification than just the record, with injuries being a major concern for the 49ers going forward. Jimmy Garappolo will return Sunday, but Nick Bosa is out for the season and that’s probably one of the biggest reasons why bettors have moved away from 49ers futures.
Russell Wilson got off to a scorching start this season, averaging roughly 300 passing yards per game with 14 total passing touchdowns in his first three contests and he led the Seahawks to three straight wins while completing over three-fourths of his passes. Wilson cooled off a bit in Week 4 against the Dolphins but still earned the win and it appears as though he’s been good enough to surpass Patrick Mahomes as the MVP frontrunner despite the fact that Mahomes’ odds have actually also improved since Week 1. Wilson and Mahomes were the established co-favorites up until recently when Aaron Rodgers entered the picture with his 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. These three quarterbacks are now the clear frontrunners for MVP, with Josh Allen still a distant fourth despite how good he’s been this year.
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