People track things in a lot of different ways. Some say a playoff series hasn’t started till the home team loses, some say summer’s not over till the leaves start to turn and, crucially, some say disco hasn’t yet died. My weird quirk is that I can’t tell who’s the current frontrunner for NFL MVP till I open a Showdown slate and see said player is priced nearly $3K higher than any other asset. So, you know, I guess I’m trying to say that congratulations are in order for Russell Wilson ($13,000).
Can you possibly pay that much for the QB services on Sunday night? Let’s break down Minnesota-Seattle from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIN vs SEA)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Chris Carson ($11,700 CP) - Obviously we’d all love to captain Wilson, the man currently leading all NFC quarterbacks in fantasy points scored per drop back (0.77). However, instead of sacrificing nearly 40% of your salary cap on a single player, may I suggest a much more frugal option with almost as much upside? Carson has been a machine so far in 2020 for the Seahawks, handling 64.2% of the team’s running back touches and averaging 20.0 DKFP per game. On a slate that wasn’t as top-heavy, it wouldn’t be a stretch to believe that a player of Carson’s archetype would be priced at or above $9K, so his value is quite easy to see. This sets up as a premium matchup for a bell cow RB, too. Minnesota has already surrendered two 100-yard rushing performances in its four contests, while the Vikings are also one of just four teams in the NFL conceding over 5.0 adjusted line yards per opponent carry. As we all witnessed last weekend in Miami, Carson can do some serious damage if the red zone sequencing falls in his favor.
Dalvin Cook ($15,300 CP) - No sequencing needed for Cook. He’s simply Minnesota’s entire offensive game plan. While Seattle does rank out as a squad that would funnel opponents towards throwing the football — the Seahawks sit sixth in rush defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA — that won’t matter against the Vikings, who come into Week 5 registering the fewest pass attempts per contest (25.0) despite starting their drives with an average deficit of 2.48 points. Cook’s workload isn’t script dependant, he comes by his 20.5 weekly touches honestly. Though there’s a chance that this becomes a rare Kirk Cousins ($9,600) viable DFS performance, I’ll take my chances with the guaranteed volume of Cook in a matchup with the highest implied point total on Sunday’s schedule.
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FLEX Plays
Justin Jefferson ($8,000) - While we are still dealing with small samples in terms of both Jefferson’s career and Minnesota’s pass ratio, there’s a case to be made that the rookie has been the most efficient wideout in football through four weeks. No qualified WR is averaging more yards per route run than Jefferson (3.70) and, on top of that, the 21-year-old’s 3.55 PPR fantasy points per touch are the fifth-most of any receiver with at least 20 targets so far this season. Jefferson’s lined up outside of the slot more and more each passing game, which means he’ll likely see a lot of Tre Flowers on Sunday — a man who has allowed opponents to catch 83% of their targets in his coverage in 2020. On the heels of back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances and in a enticing matchup, Jefferson should once again thrive.
Greg Olsen ($5,000) - As mentioned above, this is an exceedingly top-heavy slate. So, with very few places to pay down, you might have to punt ceiling and take your chances with the comfortable floor of Olsen. Sure, the veteran is only averaging 6.7 yards per target, but his 10 catches the past two weeks are tied for the fifth-most of any tight end in football. This could also be one of the better matchups Olsen draws all year long, as the Vikings have surrendered an eye-popping 11.1 yards per target to opposing TEs — the worst-mark on any NFC defense.
Jason Myers ($4,200)/Dan Bailey ($4,000) - Though usually it’s the opposite that is true, if you love and trust math, you should probably consider putting one of these two kickers into your lineup this weekend. To be perfectly blunt, there’s just no way that the Vikings and the Seahawks can continue to be as efficient as they’ve been in scoring situations through four weeks. To wit, Seattle’s TD/FG ratio is a league-leading and ludicrous 9.50, while no team is averaging more points per red zone appearance than Minnesota (6.23). Regression is looming and in a game where neither defense is overly fearsome between the 20’s, I’d expect a few short field goal attempts. It has to happen sooner or later, right?
Fades
Kirk Cousins ($9,600) - I know, the Seahawks have allowed the most DKFP to opposing QBs this season and it isn’t even particularly close. Heck, Ryan Fitzpatrick somehow scored 26.3 DKFP against Seattle in Week 4 without even throwing for a touchdown. Still, chalk Cousins does not sound like something I want to get involved with under any circumstance. Remember, this is an asset that has managed fewer than 15.0 DKFP in 12 of his 21 starts dating back to the beginning of 2019. This is a man who currently sits dead-last in drop backs among QBs with at least four starts in 2020 (116). Matchup is great, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Vikings just don’t want to pass the football.
THE OUTCOME
Seattle looked a little shaky in last week’s win over the Dolphins, but I’m sure most of that can be attributed to the cross-country travel and the Seahawks being in a classic let-down spot. I doubt we’ll see a similar performance at home in a primetime setting. As for Minnesota, they’ve really done nothing this season to earn my respect as a gambler. Plus, at the end of the day, one team has Russell Wilson and the other has Kirk Cousins. That’s all I need to know.
Final Score: Seattle 30, Minnesota 23
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIN vs SEA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.