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Fantasy Football Picks, Fades: DraftKings NFL DFS Salary Risers and Fallers Ahead of Week 10

Steve Buchanan goes over three DraftKings NFL player salaries and how they either went up or down ahead of Week 10.

Week 10 features four teams on a bye week: the Chiefs, Falcons, Cowboys (thank god) and Jets. The main slate on DraftKings features 11 games, with a majority of them taking place the late window! Six of them are starting after 4:05 p.m. ET, leading to some really nice late games. Let’s take a look at three players who saw some big movements in DraftKings salary ahead of this slate.

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DJ Chark Jr. ($6,200) at Green Bay Packers
Week 9 Salary: $5,200 ($1,000 increase)

After dropping 30.6 DKFP on the Texans’ secondary, it’s no surprise to see Chark fly up in price here in Week 10. With Jake Luton ($5,400) under center, Chark was targeted 12 times, the second-most of the season, in which he caught seven of them for 146 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars said earlier in the week that they were looking to throw downfield more with Luton and that’s exactly what they did with Chark grabbing a 73-yard touchdown in the first minute of the game. In all, Luton averaged eight yards per pass attempt and dropped back 41 times. With Gardner Minshew not expected to be active again in Week 10, this bodes well for Chark against the Packers.

To be fair, Chark will draw some tough, likely shadow coverage, from CB Jaire Alexander. In coverage, Alexander has been targeted against 27 times, allowing 16 receptions for 139 yards and only 8.7 YPR. It’s a tough matchup no doubt but Chark is the primary deep threat on this team, drawing 15 targets of 20+ yards, which accounts for 22% of his overall targets. With those types of opportunities and a team-leading 20% red zone target share, Chark should make for a great tournament play in this game.

Duke Johnson ($5,000) vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 9 Salary: $4,000 ($1,000 increase)

Another player jumping up $1K this week is Johnson, who carried the ball 16 times for 41 yards and caught all four of his targets for an additional 32 yards. Johnson, who hadn’t seen more than five carries in a game before last week, was forced into the RB1 role after David Johnson ($5,400) was forced out due to a concussion. If Da. Johnson cannot play in Week 10, the Duker will once again be the RB1 in the Texans’ matchup against the Browns.

The Browns will be fresh after coming off their Week 9 bye. Before that though, they were ripped apart by the Raiders on the ground, allowing a total of 196 scrimmage yards. The Browns’ run defense hasn’t normally been one to target against, as they’ve held opposing teams to no more than 70 rushing yards in six of their eight games. It’s the passing game they struggle against, with opposing backs averaging 43 yards per game. While that role is one that Johnson will handle, his lackluster work on the ground would likely shy me away. Johnson has been extremely inefficient on the ground and this isn’t a matchup I would be excited to use him, especially with the potential for a minimum priced Mike Davis ($4,000) on the board if Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) can’t play. Ya know what, let’s talk about ol’ Mikey.

Mike Davis ($4,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 9 Salary: $6,700 (-$2,700 decrease)

This was simply bad timing in terms of how his salary was set. We got word after salaries were released for Week 10 that McCaffrey injured his shoulder during Week 9 and is questionable to play. Playing in this first game since Week 2, McCaffrey handled 46% of the Panthers’ total touches, dusting the rest of the team. For reference, Curtis Samuel ($4,900) was second at 19.7%. As expected, Davis fell to his lowest total in six weeks to 9.8%. While McCaffrey was out, Davis averaged 40.5% of the team’s touches.

This is clearly a wait and see scenario but it should be noted, the matchup isn’t great. No one is going to scoff at a minimum priced running back regardless of the matchup but we did see Davis stumble against good run defenses like the Falcons and Saints. In those games specifically, Davis logged 20 carries for only 78 yards. He was fine in the passing game but his lack of production on the ground and being held out of the end zone had him averaging only 8.6 DKFP in those games. The Buccaneers have held opposing backs to the second lowest rushing yard total at just 55.3 per game. He’s a hard one to pass up in cash games because of his price but the matchup certainly isn’t a smash spot by any means.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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