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Fantasy Football Value Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Bargain Plays for Week 10

Zach Thompson goes position-by-position to find the best affordable plays for the Week 10 main DraftKings NFL slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET on November 15.

It’s amazing to think that we’re over halfway through the 2020 NFL regular season headed into another fun Sunday afternoon with 11 games once again on the main slate on DraftKings. In Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets are on their scheduled bye week. Some other big-name fantasy options will also be missing from the main slate as the Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are in various primetime matchups.

There are still plenty of options to consider, though, and the two waves of games are more evenly balanced than they have been in recent weeks with five games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET and six in the late window. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers meet in an AFC North clash in the featured game in that late window as one of the five divisional matchups on the main slate. In the earlier wave, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to bounce back from their ugly loss on Sunday Night Football as they take on the Carolina Panthers.

As you get your DraftKings team assembled for Week 10’s main slate, make sure to take a look at the affordable plays listed below that come loaded with upside. Each week, I dive into the bargain bin and give you my favorite cheap plays based on recent form, matchup and expected opportunity. Check out the plays I like the most this Sunday.

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QUARTERBACK

($6,000 and under)

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, $5,900 – Wentz and the Eagles are coming off their bye week with a divisional game against the Giants in the woeful NFC East. Even though Wentz has been a disappointment overall this year, he has had some good fantasy weeks and is starting to get some of his receiving options back in play. When the Eagles played the Giants in Week 7, Wentz threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score on his way to 31.76 DKFP. He had over 30 DKFP the previous week against the Ravens as well, but then he fell off a cliff with just 12.62 DKFP against the Cowboys in a game in which the Eagles cruised.

Wentz’s big statistical downturn has been in his accuracy, which has resulted in his completion percentage dropping to 58.4% from his career average of 63%. He has also had more turnovers than he normally does, with 16 giveaways in eight games, and his passer rating is 32nd of the 33 qualifying QBs this season. However, some of that regression is due to his lack of options in the passing game and a very banged-up offensive line. Both Miles Sanders ($6,400) and Alshon Jeffery ($4,000) were able to return to full practices earlier this week, and Dallas Goedert ($4,200) and Jalen Reagor ($4,200) were activated from IR the week prior to the bye. With more options starting to return, a week to work during the bye and a favorable matchup against the Giants, Wentz is well-positioned for another big game. His rushing potential and boom-or-bust mentality gives him great upside this week.

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, $5,500 – Lock and the Broncos have started slowly in each of their past two games against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Atlanta Falcons, but the second-year QB has had a pair of huge second halves. He finished with 20.82 DKFP against the Chargers and an even better 33.22 DKFP against Atlanta last week even though the Broncos’ late rally came up short. Lock threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta and ran for 47 yards and another score. His completion percentage has remained low, but he has had success taking deep shots and making big plays while showing off his explosive potential. Even without Courtland Sutton (knee), Lock has some explosive young options, and Jerry Jeudy ($5,600), Tim Patrick ($4,900), KJ Hamler ($3,800) and Noah Fant ($5,900) continue to grow each week. While Fant continues to battle injury, he is expected to play Sunday against the Raiders.

The Raiders’ defense has been a top-10 matchup for opposing QBs this season, and they have given up multiple passing touchdowns and over 275 yards in four of their past five games, with the only exception being the wind-aided game against the Cleveland Browns. Justin Herbert ($6,600) had a strong game against the Raiders last week, and I think Lock should be able to continue his run of strong performances with second straight indoor matchup as he visits Las Vegas.

Other Options: Tua Tagovailoa ($5,600), Nick Mullens ($5,300)


RUNNING BACK

($5,000 and under)

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions, $4,900 – In a weird scheduling quirk, several RBs around this salary get matchups this Sunday afternoon against their former team. McKissic will take on the Lions, who he spent last season with before joining Washington as a free agent this past offseason. McKissic led the team with 14 targets against the New York Giants in Week 9 and turned them into 17.2 DKFP with nine catches for 65 yards and 17 yards on his three carries. McKissic’s real value, though, comes from his regular involvement in the passing game, which should be even more checkdown focused now that Alex Smith ($5,200) is expected to start at QB. McKissic has at least six catches in four of his past five games and has at least 10 DKFP in each of those four contests even though he hasn’t yet scored a touchdown.

In Week 9, McKissic played a whopping 83% of Washington’s offensive snaps after playing closer to 50% in Week 6 and Week 7 prior to the bye week. Part of that increased usage was likely due to the fact that Washington was trying to rally, but it also speaks to his comfort level with Smith and his critical work as a pass protector. He’ll most likely be in for a large workload against his former team that was just crushed for over 50 DKFP by Minnesota’s RBs last week and have given up the most DKFP to RB this season. They have allowed an average of 4.6 catches for 51.6 yards to opposing RBs in addition to five RB receiving touchdowns and 15 touchdowns overall to RB, both the most in the NFL.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,000 – Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) is expected to miss this game against the Buccaneers, but that news broke after salaries were finalized, leaving Davis as an extremely cheap way to get top production if he takes over once again for CMC. Davis is way too cheap if he ends up in that role, so he’ll likely be an extremely obvious and popular play. However, there are times when the chalky play is too good to pass up, and you can’t miss out on a free space just because everyone else has it.

Davis was very consistent while McCaffrey was out with a previous injury, producing at least 8.5 DKFP in six starts. More importantly, he had an extremely high ceiling with over 22 DKFP in three of those contests. He stepped in during the Panthers’ first game against the Bucs and finished with eight catches for 74 yards and 15.5 DKFP after McCaffrey’s ankle injury. In this rematch, he should be poised for more success if he’s the RB1 from the outset. While the Bucs have done a good job at defending the run, they have allowed RBs to put up good production as receivers and Davis has shown he can be an awesome PPR producer.

Other Options: Duke Johnson ($5,000), Kalen Ballage ($5,000), Wayne Gallman Jr. ($4,500)


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WIDE RECEIVER

($5,000 and under)

Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers, $4,800 – After missing two games following the Saints’ bye week due to a positive COVID-19 test, Sanders jumped right back into the flow of the offense on Sunday Night Football last week against the Buccaneers. He hauled in 4-of-5 targets for 38 yards and a touchdown to produce 13.8 DKFP despite the fact that the Saints opened up a huge lead and didn’t have to throw the ball much. Sanders was even more heavily targeted before his two-game absence, drawing 23 targets and catching 18 passes in his two previous games. He has averaged 6.5 catches for 77.3 yards and 18.0 DKFP over his past four games and seems to be gelling extremely well with Drew Brees ($6,400) and the Saints’ offense.

Sanders will also be in a matchup against his former team as the Saints host the 49ers this week, but even more importantly he’ll be going up against an injury-depleted secondary that has allowed 10 WR touchdowns in their past five games. As teams focus more on Michael Thomas ($7,400), Sanders may see a slight drop in target share but should also get softer coverage as defenses focus on Thomas.

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, $4,200 – As discussed above, the Eagles are starting to get some pieces back in their offense, and they have big plans for their first-round pick after welcoming him back from IR in Week 8. Even though he was still getting back to full speed and returning ahead of his initial timetable, Reagor had six targets in Week 8 against Dallas and caught three passes for 16 yards and a touchdown while also adding a six-yard rush and a two-point conversion to total 13.2 DKFP. Reagor played 73% of the team’s offensive snaps and was second on the team in targets behind just Travis Fulgham ($6,400).

The hope for Reagor after the draft was that he would develop into the team’s top WR, which he could still do alongside the surprise emergence of Fulgham. The Eagles should continue to get a chance to showcase his upside in this matchup against the Giants, and Reagor has game-breaking ability every time he touches the ball. If he gets free for a big play or two, he’ll end up being an outstanding play at this salary.

KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, $3,800 – Another rookie WR who looks poised to continue his growth this week is Hamler, who is coming off the best game of his career last week against the Falcons. He played 80% of the Broncos’ snaps after playing just 39% in Week 8, when he was returning from a hamstring injury. He set a career-high with 10 targets and had six catches for 75 yards in addition to a 15-yard rush that brought his total to 15.0 DKFP. It has been a great stretch for Hamler, who caught the game-winning walk-off against the Chargers the previous week.

Denver clearly wants Hamler and Jeudy to develop into the top options for Lock as the core of their young offense. While both Tim Patrick and Jeudy are more down-the-field threats, Hamler is averaging just 10.5 yards as an average depth of target. He runs more underneath routes and has shown he can be effective at turning them into big plays, especially late in games. Eight of his 13 targets have come in the fourth quarter over the past two weeks, and he’ll look to stay very involved as the Broncos visit the Raiders.

Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, $3,500 – The Seahawks have been a great matchup for opposing WRs, allowing an average 279.5 receiving yards per game along with 13 WR touchdowns. The Rams’ entire passing offense will likely be popular options after the Bills threw the ball so effectively in Week 9, but don’t miss Reynolds as a great value play since his involvement is higher than many people realize.

Reynolds played 83% of the Rams’ snaps in Week 6, 74% in Week 7 and 81% in Week 8. He has at least four targets in six straight contests and drew 17 targets including one red zone look in each of his two most recent games. He leads the team with a 13.5 yard average depth of target, and he could get loose for big plays against the Seahawks this Sunday in this NFC West divisional matchup.

Other Options: Curtis Samuel ($4,900), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,400), David Moore ($3,400)


TIGHT END

($4,000 and under)

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans, $3,900 – Hooper had to have his appendix removed after Week 6 and was sidelined through the bye week in Week 9. He is expected to be back on the field this week, though, and he could be in for an expanded workload in Cleveland’s offense. While Hooper was out, Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) was lost for the season, so he’ll likely come back as the second option in the passing game behind only a banged-up Jarvis Landry ($5,900). Hooper was trending the right way before his injury with five catches and double-digit DKFP in three straight games against the Cowboys, Colts and Steelers. If he returns to that level of involvement or more, he could be a key fantasy producer.

Hooper comes back to a favorable matchup against Houston, which has given up the 11th-most DKFP to TE on the season. They have allowed an average of 5.5 catches for 59.6 yards per contest and a total of four TE touchdowns. Baker Mayfield ($6,000) relies heavily on his TEs especially in the red zone and will likely look Hooper’s way often if he’s 100% healthy.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, $3,100 – Everett got a season-high nine targets against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8 but part of that was definitely due to over 60 pass attempts by Jared Goff ($6,500). Even though he only hauled in five catches for 32 yards and 8.2 DKFP, his volume shows he is still heavily involved in the Rams’ offensive scheme even though Tyler Higbee ($3,700) returned to action. Everett had been eating into Higbee’s snap share even before the injury and has more upside due to his athleticism.

Everett has been involved in some creative ways so far this season, including a jet sweep for a score and lining up at FB a few times. While his role can shift from game-to-game, it’s clear that coach Sean McVay likes his big-play potential and finds ways to get him the ball. In what should be a high-scoring game against the Seahawks, look for the Rams to get the ball into Everett’s hands as much as possible this Sunday.

Other Options: Ross Dwelley ($3,800), Logan Thomas ($3,300)


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

($2,800 and under)

Dolphins DST, Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers, $2,800 – After a nice road win against Kyler Murray ($8,000) and the Cardinals, the Dolphins come back home to host Justin Herbert ($6,600) and the Chargers in a matchup of promising rookie QBs. The Dolphins’ defense has been playing exceptionally well lately and had another defensive touchdown last week to produce 8.0 DKFP. They had at least 12 DKFP in four of their previous five contests and are now averaging 12.2 DKFP in their past six contests. They have 13 takeaways and 20 sacks in their eight games this season, and the Chargers have allowed multiple sacks in all but one of their games this year. Even though they probably won’t shut the Chargers down, the Dolphins should be able to come up with enough big plays to be a solid value play again this week.

Broncos DST, Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, $2,400 — The Broncos are banged up on defense and missing key pieces, but they have still managed to put together some big plays. They have 18 sacks over their past five games while forcing seven turnovers during that run. The safety tandem of Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons is one of the top-rated in the NFL, but they did badly miss CB Bryce Callahan against the Falcons. Callahan was a surprise inactive last week, but if he’s back this week the defense should be better against Las Vegas. The Raiders play an aggressive style of offense which can lead to takeaway opportunities for the opposing defense, making the Broncos an intriguing punt play at DST this week.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Z.Thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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