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NFL TNF Best Bets: Thursday Night Football Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Colts vs. Titans

Julian Edlow gives his best NFL bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 10’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Colts and Titans.

We’ve got the top-two teams in the AFC South clashing on TNF in what projects as a tight game. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.

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Set your DraftKings TNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.75M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (IND vs TEN)


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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

TEN ML (-107)

Tennessee shifted to as large as two-point favorites, and I really thought we’d see this one move to three by kickoff. It still could, but we saw a big shift back towards a pick’em on Wednesday, giving us great value on the Titans at home here. The Colts have taken advantage of a pretty soft schedule so far this season, and that changed with Baltimore coming to town on Sunday. Indy turned into the “sharp” side of that one, and the Ravens wound up at even money and won the game by 14. Now the Colts have to hit the road to play a division rival on a short week. This is probably their second-most difficult game of the season behind Baltimore, and they should certainly be priced as underdogs of some sort. The Titans got back on track last week with a cover against the Bears and hold some significant mismatches in this one. While the Colts are 4-4 ATS this season, a lot of that is from early season success (following an outright loss to the Jaguars). Indy is just 1-3 ATS in its last four, and I expect them to struggle against legitimate competition.

Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-162)

The Colts began the season with a strong rush defense in terms of scores allowed, and Henry oddly didn’t find the end zone in his first two games of 2020. Since then, Henry has eight rushing touchdowns in his last six games, while the Colts gave up two scores on the ground to Baltimore and three scores a couple weeks earlier to the Bengals. We’re laying some juice here — but considering we saw Alvin Kamara in the -300 neighborhood to score in a primetime game, this feels like a discount on Henry. Since the discount is likely due to overrating the matchup, I’m in on Henry at a more than fair price. We hit Davante Adams at -162 last week.

Philip Rivers Touchdown Passes: UNDER 1.5 (+122)

This is just way too good of a price to bet on Rivers doing something he’s done the majority of the season — not play well. This is priced like this because the Titans are allowing 2.4 passing touchdowns per game — tied for worst in the NFL. However, Tennessee’s pass defense has improved as the season has gone on, and also ranked much better last season, giving up just 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. I’d expect some regression here, and Rivers is a good matchup to start seeing that. Rivers has three-touchdown games against the Bengals and Lions this season and has thrown a total of four touchdowns in his other six games combined — obviously all games with one or less scores. I’ll take plus-money on Rivers crumbling in primetime and Tennessee stepping up on defense.

Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings TNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.75M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (IND vs TEN)

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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