We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
This one was sitting with the Titans -2, and I thought we’d see them continue moving towards a field goal. But swinging back to a pick’em, I’m not passing on the value of Tennessee at home. After a strange loss to the Bengals, the Titans got back on track with a cover against the Bears, dominating much of the game. That was the Titans team we saw get off to such a hot start. It feels like this matchup against the Colts, who they beat handily after making the switch to Ryan Tannehill last season, sets up nice for the home team. The Colts played arguably the softest schedule to start the NFL season and got their first real test against the Ravens, suffering a two touchdown loss at home. A short week on the road against the toughest team in the division isn’t exactly a recipe for a bounce-back. Tennessee’s pass defense has been shaky this season but better of late, adding back key pieces from injuries and via trade.
After watching the Patriots victory over the Jets on MNF, I feel infinitely worse about the Patriots’ outlook this season. The days of New England’s dominant defense are long gone, easily proven by the show Joe Flacco and Breshad Perriman were able to put on through the air. Lamar Jackson and company found their groove again last week against a solid Indianapolis defense on the road and should shred this matchup against the Pats. Offensively, Cam Newton seemed to be able to move the ball last week, but that was against the Jets. I think we’ll go back to seeing Newton play like he did in those dreadful games against the Niners and Broncos with a stout Baltimore defense lining up opposite the Patriots. The Ravens won this matchup 37-20 last year. I expect it to be a much uglies final score this time around.
Kyler Murray Rushing Yards: OVER 51.5 (-112) — 2.24 to win 2
Murray’s been a machine running the ball so far this season, not only making the most out of his scrambles, but also getting a heavy dose of runs calling his number. Kyler’s averaging 68 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game this season, and a cushy Buffalo defense isn’t a matchup that should prevent him from continuing to run wild. The Bills have given up some big rushing games to QBs this season, and not all of them would even be considered mobile guys. Murray’s coming off a season-high 106 rushing yards on 11 carries against Miami. He’s run for 67 or more yards in three-straight games, and has at least 67 yards in six of his eight games this season. This doesn’t feel like the game Kyler slows down, if he ever does.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
SEASON TOTAL: 14-25 (-8.97 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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