Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Kyler Murray ($8,000) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) – John Brown ($5,300)
The Bills travel West to Arizona this week for a game that currently has a 56.5 over/under attached to it on DraftKings Sportsbook, the highest number on the slate. As of now, Buffalo seems likely to be without top cornerback Tre’Davious White (questionable) for this game, a development which could really open up things for DeAndre Hopkins. After a quick start, Hopkins has produced three or less catches in two of his last three games, but a return to form here—after catching just three balls against Miami—wouldn’t be shocking. Buffalo has allowed opposing WR1s to go off in numerous spots this season with A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf both posting seven receptions for 80+ yards and a TD against them over their last four games.
Hopkins may have been inconsistent of late but when he and QB Kyler Murray “go off”, the pair really goes off. Murray and Hopkins have combined for five games of 50 or more DKFP between them, three of which have gone for 55 or more. Murray’s become a near cheat code at this point and still looks underpriced at $8K flat considering he’s averaging just under 10 carries a game and 7.1 YPC on the ground alone. Buffalo will also be without LB Matt Milano (IR) again here and the team has allowed 4.6 YPC this season, the eighth-worst mark in the league.
Both teams have big implied team totals, and we have a close spread on DraftKings Sportsbook, so coming back with a Bills WR makes sense here too. We should expect Patrick Peterson to shadow Stefon Diggs ($7,500) this week and while Peterson may not be as dominant as he was in the middle of this decade, the veteran has played well lately and limited DeVante Parker to just 64 yards last week. John Brown played 78% of the snaps last week against Seattle and saw 11 targets in a pass-happy game plan that Buffalo could look to deploy here again. With Arizona also banged up at other positions in the secondary, and Brown in a “revenge” spot against his old team, saving the salary and going with the lower-profile WR in the better matchup could provide solid some return and also lead to more unique builds this week.
Just Missed: Russell Wilson ($7,700) – Tyler Lockett ($6,500) – Robert Woods ($6,600)
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams ($7,700)
Wilson got outdueled last week by Josh Allen ($7,500) and now has a perceived tough matchup against the Rams, who have allowed the second-fewest DKFP to the QB position this year. Wilson has always been pretty matchup proof though—in this season and throughout his career—and with the division lead hanging in the balance here, you could see him start to produce a little more on the ground in this spot too. While he’s certainly struggled against the Rams at various points in his career, the previous two seasons have seen Wilson put up three or more passing TDs in three of his last four games against them.
This game won’t draw as much appeal as some of the other games on the slate with high projected point totals but the Seahawks do enter it with an implied team total of 27 points, which is almost exactly what the Bills are at as well. The difference here is that Wilson is likely to be much lower-owned than Josh Allen—despite them being nearly the same price on DraftKings—and should make for a good lower-owned stacking target when paired with Tyler Lockett ($6,500), who figures to avoid the shadow coverage of Jalen Ramsey this week.
Just Missed: Justin Herbert ($6,600)
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers ($5,500)
Since coming back from injury in Week 7, Fournette has gone on to lead the Bucs’ RBs in snaps played in each game they’ve played. Moreover, he’s also now played over 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games and has out-touched back-mate Ronald Jones ($5,300) 25-17 in that span too. While the Bucs’ offensive numbers from their embarrassing loss to the Saints last week can be tossed to the wastebasket, it is worth noting that last week again emphasized again that Fournette’s role in the passing game is growing.
Including the six targets he got in garbage time versus the Saints, Fournette has now seen 19 targets combined in the last three games and is becoming somewhat game-flow proof in that regard for DFS purposes. The Panthers remain one of the best clubs to target with opposing RBs as they’ve allowed the fifth-most DKFP per-game to the position and the most receptions to opposing RBs on the year. With his price still not reflecting the opportunity he’s being given—or the matchup on the table for Week 10—Fournette certainly presents as a nice upside value here and seems likely to go at least somewhat overlooked in bigger field GPPs, given the negative sentiment on the Bucs’ offense after Week 9.
Just Missed: Kareem Hunt ($6,700—with or without Chubb active)
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,600)
With Christian McCaffrey not expected to play and Dalvin Cook playing on Monday Night Football this week, paying up at wide receiver seems like it will be in a lot of people’s game-plans for Week 10. Rams receivers may be hard to trust on a week-to-week basis, but they do have a terrific matchup and present at more affordable price tags than some of their peers. Seattle has allowed over 20% more fantasy points to opposing WRs this year than the second-to-last-place Titans have to this point and are also dead last—by a mile—in yards and receptions allowed to opposing WRs as well. Both Woods and Cooper Kupp ($6,900) are in play here for monster games, but it is Woods who is getting the better opportunities.
Kupp saw an ungodly 21 targets in the Rams’ last game against Miami, but was still outscored by Woods in the contest by over 3.0 DKFP as he was able to land seven receptions himself and find the end zone twice. Woods has been the preferred red zone target for the Rams thus far, out-targeting/touching Kupp 11-5 in that area of the field on the season and has been very active as a runner, as he’s averaging over two carries per game and 6.8 YPC on the season. At well under $7K in price, Woods’ upside could really shine through here in a game where Seattle’s offense and ineptitude in the secondary should put pressure on Jared Goff ($6,500) and Sean McVay to throw the ball more than usual.
Just Missed: Michael Thomas ($7,400)
Evan Engram, New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles ($4,500)
Engram comes into this game having now seen 29 targets over his last three games. TE has been a barren wasteland though for much of 2020, so even if Engram’s returns from his heavy targeting have been less than stellar, the kind of volume he’s seeing means that he needs to be taken seriously. New York has seen injuries and off-field issues hamper the effectiveness of their WRs at times, so it seems doubtful that Engram is in for a huge reduction in targets anytime soon. It’s worth noting too that the 26-year-old dropped what would likely have been a long TD pass late in the last game the Giants played against Philly two weeks ago, or we may be talking differently about him here—and at a higher price-point.
The Eagles have allowed some monster games to opposing TEs already, with Tyler Higbee ($3,700) and George Kittle each going off for 25+ DKFP against them in recent weeks. Overall, the Eagles have ceded the third-most DKFP per game to the position and with Engram getting targeted like a de facto number one WR, the price here makes him very appealing as a TE option in Week 10.
Just Missed: Jacob Hollister ($2,600)
Cleveland Browns ($2,900) vs. Houston Texans
The weather in Cleveland this week is calling for winds gusting up to and over 25 mph, with potential rain also in play. The conditions should make things ripe for the Cleveland DST, which comes into this game ranked fourth in turnovers created on the year. Cleveland has now recorded three or more sacks in four games this year and are going up against a lame-duck Houston team whose offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted-sack rate against and has allowed the eighth-most sacks.
The Texans may also be without their best early-down back in David Johnson (concussion-questionable) this week, which could hamper their ability to move the ball in a cold/windy game, while Cleveland may be getting RB Nick Chubb ($6,900) back. The Texans’ rush defense has allowed 5.1 YPC (second-worst in the league), and if Cleveland can find success on the ground, it should force Houston into more risky throws late in a game with potentially poor throwing conditions. The Browns’ DST will almost certainly carry limited ownership in big field GPPs this week and makes for a solid target in those contests as a result, especially if you’re planning on deploying a Cleveland RB in lineups with them.
Just missed: Las Vegas Raiders ($2,500)
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