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NFL Week 10 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 10 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

NFL Week 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook is highlighted by some games with significant playoff and divisional implications, particularly in the NFC. The Rams will host the Seahawks while the Bills travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals, with both of those games are in the 4 p.m. ET window. Prior to that, the Eagles will be looking to take control of the NFC East when they face the Giants on the road. In addition, there are a couple of games on the slate that are being massively impacted by weather, most notably in Cleveland.NFL Week 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook is highlighted by some games with significant playoff and divisional implications, particularly in the NFC. The Rams will host the Seahawks while the Bills travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals, with both of those games are in the 4 p.m. ET window. Prior to that, the Eagles will be looking to take control of the NFC East when they face the Giants on the road. In addition, there are a couple of games on the slate that are being massively impacted by weather, most notably in Cleveland.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • Betting continues to come in on the Washington Football Team, and they’ve now moved from +4.5 across the key number (3) all the way to +2.5.
  • The Browns have gone the opposite direction, moving from -2.5 up to -4.5.
  • Cardinals betting picked up steam late in the week, and they’re now up to -3 against the Bills.

Betting Splits Breakdown

A pair of road underdogs are drawing some strong betting volume in Week 10 and both are in games involving the NFC West. Despite losing two of their past three games, the public is latching onto the Seahawks for their game in Los Angeles against the Rams and the affection for this team is apparently superseding any concerns with recent performance. The Rams haven’t been great lately either, but the Seahawks’ defense has been as bad as any during the past three weeks and that probably explains why the line has moved toward the Rams even with the lopsided Seahawks action.

The Bills are the most recent team to beat the Seahawks and they’re getting a huge amount of credit for that from DraftKings Sportsbook bettors, who are backing them as slight underdogs in Arizona. The Bills looked great last week, but it was just two weeks ago when they almost blew a home game against the Patriots. The team’s three games prior to that were a win against the Jets, a loss to the Chiefs and an embarrassing loss to the Titans. The betting here seems like a public overreaction to the most recent game and that probably explains why the “sharp” bettors appear to be driving the line toward the Cardinals.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Cleveland Browns (-2.5 to -3.5)

New Orleans Saints (-7 to -9.5)

Totals

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (54 to 46.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (53 to 49)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (47 to 50.5)

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (53 to 56.5)

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (52.5 to 49)

The most significant line movement of Week 10 is mostly coming from over/unders, particularly in Cleveland where the total has actually dropped by more than a touchdown. Weather is the major variable as is the norm with plummeting totals and it’s looking like some rain and plenty of wind will be affecting the game. The Browns played a game with similar conditions two weeks ago against the Raiders, and there were just 233 total passing yards and 22 total points in that one.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.