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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 11

Steve Buchanan analyzes three fantasy football player performances from Week 10 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 11.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire[$1M to 1st]

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
Week 10 Fantasy Total: 27.9 DKFP

MVS absolutely blew up in Week 10 despite only making four catches against the Jaguars. The weather forecast for this game was not looking good, as wind gusts up to 50 mph were expected. That didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers ($7,000) from airing the ball out, telling all meteorologists to mind their darn business in their process. MVS tied for second on the team in team targets in this game at 18.2%, along with Aaron Jones ($7,200).

You wouldn’t believe it, but MVS is currently second on the Packers in target share at 15%, behind, of course, Davante Adams ($8,600). Adams is and always will be the alpha in this offense, drawing 27% of the total targets. Week 11 brings a tough matchup against the Colts’ secondary that allows an average of 33.4 DKFP, 150 receiving yards and eight touchdowns scored by opposing receivers. Sounds like a lot but among the league, those are some of the lower numbers.

The matchup for MVS isn’t horrible against CB Rock Ya-Sin, who has allowed a 67.6% catch rate and 14 YPR on 37 targets this season. I don’t hate using him at this fairly cheap price but I also will not go out of my way to roster him. I think he’s a decent tournament play but keep in mind ownership usually follows a particular player after they have a big performance like MVS just had.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 10 Fantasy Total: 26.5 DKFP

Higgins ($5,900) had himself one heck of a Week 10, catching seven of his nine targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. It was his fourth touchdown of the season along with his second 100+ yard receiving game, the first of which came against a strong Colts secondary back in Week 6. Higgins continues to be the man in this offense that doesn’t get talked about enough despite drawing 17% of the team’s overall targets and 13% in the red zone.

It’s amazing to look at his game log and see he has at least eight targets in five of his games and yet is only $5,900 in Week 11. That’s a ton of looks for someone who is perceived as the WR3 in this offense. On the other hand, it also plays into how many times Joe Burrow ($5,500) is throwing the ball, averaging 41 pass attempts per game. Burrow also leads the league in drop backs at 418, as only he, Josh Allen and Tom Brady have dropped back at least 400 times.

Week 11 brings a tough matchup against one of the most underrated secondaries in the league, the Washington Football Team. Luckily for Higgins, he’ll draw one of the better matchups against CB Ronald Darby, who has been targeted against 43 times, allowing a 65.1% catch rate and 15.4 YPR. At this salary, even in the tough matchup, Higgins simply gets too much volume to ignore.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers
Week 10 Fantasy Total: 8.4 DKFP

Everyone’s favorite chalk play of Week 10 posted a putrid 8.4 DKFP in a matchup everyone knew was terrible but still went and played him anyway. Look, I get it, he was an easy cash play because he was the bare minimum and it wouldn’t take much for him to return value on his $4K salary. On the other hand, YOU KNEW he wasn’t going to perform, as most opposing running backs haven’t in this matchup and people were STILL upset with the outcome. Now, Davis is priced appropriately in Week 11 and is heading towards the lead role in the Panthers’ backfield once again.

If there was a defense you needed Davis to face to bounce back, the Lions are the perfect team to do it against. The 36.1 DKFP opposing backs are averaging is the highest in the league to go with 126 rushing yards and 53.6 receiving yards per game. Teams have rushed for over 100 yards four times, and specifically over the past four weeks, eight rushing touchdowns have been scored. This truly is the matchup you want to use Davis in.

We’ve now seen seven games where Davis has been the lead back in Carolina and in those instances, he’s averaged 39.1% of the teams total touches. They WILL give him the ball, it just doesn’t mean he’ll produce. In this matchup, he absolutely should produce and he’ll be hard to leave on the board with that type of volume, which could increase even more if Teddy Bridgewater ($6,400) is ruled out. Let recency bias play victim to people who used him last week and got burned. This is potentially a can’t miss spot for Davis.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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