There is a free-to-play $1K pool on DraftKings Sportsbook available for the 2020 NBA Draft on Wednesday night. The free-to-play pool contest locks at 7:00 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the questions for this contest and try to identify the best answers.
Question 1: Who will be the first pick?
Realistically, there are only two players to choose from here. Using the betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook as a guide, LaMelo Ball is priced at -115 to go first overall and Anthony Edwards is -106 to go to the Timberwolves. The next best odds are James Wiseman at +900. Minnesota has not made contact with Wiseman according to reports, and since the team already has Karl-Anthony Towns at center, drafting a guard looks most likely.
Early in the draft process, Edwards was a heavy favorite to go first overall. The odds shifted last week, putting Ball as large as a -210 favorite to go first overall. Now, it looks like a coin flip. I don’t think either is a bad pick but I will slightly lean towards Edwards as the pick with the most recent line movement coming in his favor.
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Question 2: Who will be the second pick?
This is the toughest pick to get a feel for. The reason is because the Warriors seem somewhat likely to move this pick. With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson coming back from injuries, Golden State is looking to win now. If they are able to trade the pick, we don’t know to which team or what player they will look to take.
With what I said above in mind, I will assume the Warriors hold onto the pick for now. If they do make a trade, we will have to evaluate the needs of the team moving up in the draft. If Golden State keeps the pick, James Wiseman is the player they have been linked to the most. He’s -113 to get drafted with the second overall pick, making him the best selection here if no trade happens.
Question 3: Who will be the third pick?
The answer for the third pick should correlate with the second pick. Per the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the player most likely to get picked third is whoever doesn’t go first between Edwards and Ball. So whoever you choose to go first, it makes most sense to pick the other one to go third. James Wiseman also has decent odds to go third at +115. He is an option here in the event that the Warriors trade the second pick.
Question 4: Number of Players Drafted in the 1st Round from the PAC-12 Conference
It looks like picking Under 5.5 here has the most value. There is a prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for this prop and the line is -134 for the under. The conference didn’t produce many elite prospects this year and it’s hard to confidently project six of them to go in the first round. This is also a year where it looks like we will get a handful of players drafted in the first round from overseas. The players from the PAC-12 that we can confidently say will get selected in the first 30 picks are Onyeka Okongwu, Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels.
Question 5: Number of Players Drafted in the 1st Round from the Southeastern Conference
Much like with the odds from the PAC-12, I have to lean a bit towards Under 5.5. DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists the under at -125 odds. This isn’t a massive lean, but it makes this a slightly more likely outcome than the over. One of the big factors here is that we don’t have the same influx in talent from Kentucky that we normally see. Tyrese Maxey is the only player from Kentucky expected to go in the first round. The most notable SEC standout in the draft is Anthony Edwards.
Question 6: Number of Players Drafted in the 1st Round from the Big 12 Conference
Under 2.5 here is the safest of the prop bets we have seen from the conferences since the prop is listed at -225 odds for two or less players to get selected in the first round on DraftKings Sportsbook. This implies a 69.2% chance that the UNDER hits with this prop. Just like what we saw with Kentucky, this isn’t a great draft class for Kansas. Typically this is where we would find first-round players from the Big 12. This year, no players from Kansas are expected to come off the board in the first round.
Question 7: LaMelo Ball Draft position
Oddly, the correct answer for Question 7 doesn’t matter at this point. It’s a bit redundant since we were already asked about who would get drafted with the first and second picks in the draft. If you said that Ball would go at one of two, you take Under 2.5 here. If you said he wouldn’t go with either of those picks, you select Over 2.5. We need to get all eight picks right to win the pool so there’s no use in hedging selections.
Question 8: Will there be a trade in the Top 5 picks on draft day?
I hope so. I am not sure how likely it is for the Warriors to move off the second pick but the good news is that we will probably know the answer before this contest locks. If a trade happens, we likely won’t have to wait until after the draft starts to find out. Last year, we saw the Hawks make a trade and reports came out well before the draft began. If nothing is reported by lock, stick with no for this answer. Obviously, it’s an easy yes if a trade happens early in the day.
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