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Fantasy Football Picks, Fades: DraftKings NFL DFS Salary Risers and Fallers Ahead of Week 11

Steve Buchanan goes over three DraftKings NFL player salaries and how they either went up or down ahead of Week 11.

After being spoiled with an amazing schedule in Week 10 that almost evenly levelled out the early and late games, we go back to reality in Week 11 with only four games in the late window. For this piece, we take a look at three players who saw some major movement in their salary ahead of Sunday’s slate.

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Mike Davis ($6,800), Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Week 10 Salary: $4,000 ($2,800 increase)

The never-ending salary adjustments for Davis continue in Week 11, fresh off his 59% ownership average across the board on DraftKings last weekend. That mega chalk pick rewarded them all with 8.4 DKFP, making this the fourth week in a row Davis has scored no more than 8.0 DKFP. To be fair, we all should have seen this coming in a bad matchup but, especially in a cash game lineup, he was the free square to pick. Leaving a really bad taste in 59% of your mouths, he sees a massive $2,800 increase ahead of Week 11, in which he’s expected to be the lead back once again in a MUCH better matchup.

Regardless of how poor his performance was, the Panthers did their part by continuing to give him very heavy volume, seeing 30.6% of the team’s touches — nearly double of what Curtis Samuel had at 16.7%, who was second on the team. In starts without Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), Davis is averaging 39.1% of the total touches, which tramples over everyone else on the team. With the impending matchup, not only is he priced appropriately, but he has a massive opportunity to bounce back.

The Lions have arguably one of the worst run defenses in the league and are allowing an average of 36.1 DKFP, 126 rushing yards and 53.6 receiving yards to the position. If Davis continues to see the massive volume he regularly does, this is an amazing spot for him. With the potential for Teddy Bridgewater ($6,400) to miss this game, as well, Davis could be relied upon even more, if that’s even humanly possible. This is a can’t miss spot for Davis, unlike last week.

D’Andre Swift ($6,400), Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Week 10 Salary: $5,100 ($1,300 increase)

Editor’s note: Lions RB D’Andre Swift (concussion) has been ruled out this week.

This could end up being quite the game for both sides on the ground with how bad these run defenses are. Swift was finally handed the keys to the offense, as he was announced as the starter a mere hour before kickoff in Week 10. Those lucky enough to swap him in were rewarded with 25.9 DKFP, as he carried the ball 16 times for 81 yards and caught all five of his targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. Swift dominated the snap counts, playing 73% of them while Kerryon Johnson ($4,000) was on for 15.3% of plays and Adrian Peterson ($4,000) was at just 12%. Peterson did out-carry Swift in the red zone, but only by one, as AP had two carries to Swift’s one. Regardless, this was the volume we’ve been hoping for from Swift.

Like Davis, this is a can’t miss spot for Swift despite the big jump in salary. The Panthers are allowing an average of 29.8 DKFP, 108 rushing yards and 44.5 receiving yards to the position per game. The Lions are coming into this game banged up, as Matt Stafford ($6,000) is dealing with a thumb injury and Kenny Golladay ($5,800) hasn’t been on the field since Week 8 with a hip injury. I’m never a big fan of using opposing running backs in a lineup, but man, what amazing spots for both of these guys.

Richard Rodgers ($3,500), Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Week 10 Salary: $2,800 ($700 increase)

Rodgers may not jump out at you as someone who saw a big increase in salary, but he did at $700. His salary wasn’t the only thing to go up, as his target share continued to increase, as well. With Zach Ertz ($3,700) currently on IR — he could end up being back this week as the Eagles designated him to return on Monday — is Rodgers still a viable option if Philadelphia is without their veteran TE?

Rodgers has only played in two games that Ertz has been out, but he’s averaged a solid 16.7% of the target share in those games. His 14% target share was fairly impressive as well, considering that Dallas Goedert ($3,800) was active and had a 16.7% share. Of the three tight ends, Rodgers is running a route on the least amount of snaps at 74%, but he’s clearly been catching Carson Wentz ($5,700) attention. Against a Browns defense that’s allowed 14.1 DKFP to the tight end position per game, this is at least worth watching if Ertz is once again inactive.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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