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DraftKings Fantasy Football Sleepers: NFL DFS Pivot Picks for Week 11

Garion Thorne goes position-by-position to find overlooked players on Week 11’s main DraftKings slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 22.

It’s hard to know what a sleeper even is anymore when it comes to Fantasy Football, but, for the purposes of this article, we’ll use the term to mean an asset that’s likely to be undervalued heading into a given week. A player that’s going to be overlooked when it comes to ownership, yet one that has a reasonable path to make people regret that decision. Someone who might set your lineup apart from the pack in a GPP, if you will.

With that in mind, let’s go position-by-position for an early look at Week 11’s slate on DraftKings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]



QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team, $5,500

There are certainly a few red flags when it comes to Burrow’s fantasy value through nine career starts. For instance, among the 26 QBs with over 250 drop backs so far this season, only Carson Wentz ($5,700) and Drew Lock ($5,400) have lower adjusted completion rates than the reigning No. 1 overall pick (73.1%). Burrow’s also only scored 0.41 fantasy points per drop back in 2020 and, in a setting like last weekend’s game against the Steelers, his lack of elite arm strength was pretty apparent. Still, with much calmer winds projected for this Sunday’s contest in Washington, none of that really matters as it pertains to Burrow’s Week 11 viability. To be blunt: Volume remains king. Despite their being a handful of quarterbacks to have already played in 10 games, Burrow leads all pivots with 418 total drop backs, while he leads all AFC QBs with 370 passing attempts. Heck, the LSU product has only once failed to throw the ball at least 35 times in a contest — one of the biggest reasons he currently sits first in the NFL in 300-yard passing performances (5). With the type of ceiling, there’s no good reason Burrow’s price tag should be this far below $6K.


RUNNING BACK

Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos, $4,800

I’m very curious to see how much attention Ahmed gets this weekend against the Broncos. On the one hand, the undrafted rookie just saw 22 touches and scored 16.0 DKFP in Miami’s victory over Los Angeles in Week 10. On the other hand, the Dolphins haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since 2018 and the team’s offensive line is generating just 3.84 adjusted line yards per carry — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. There’s also quite a few moving parts to consider when it comes to Miami’s backfield depth. It seems likely that Matt Breida ($4,000) will be able to return from a hamstring issue to play in Week 11’s contest; however, he’s yet to see anything resembling a “bell cow” workload under Brian Flores. Really, the more important RB news in South Florida might be that Jordan Howard — who was receiving 56.3% of the Dolphins’ carries inside the five-yard line — was placed on waivers. With no obvious candidate to vulture goal line opportunities from Ahmed, I like the 21-year-old’s chances to exploit a Denver defense that just surrendered 203 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Oakland. Honestly, I’m sort of pulling for Breida to end up active, in hopes his presence deters a few prospective owners.


WIDE RECEIVER

KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins, $3,600

There are some huge questions about the Broncos’ quarterback situation this week, but I sort of feel like Denver and Jacksonville are similar situations at this point. In general, is Lock better than someone like Brett Rypien ($5,100)? Probably. However, it’s not exactly the biggest downgrade in the world if he’s forced to sit out this Sunday. It’s also not likely that Rypien’s presence changes the game script. The Broncos are significant home underdogs in Week 11 to a Dolphins squad that’s reeled off five-straight wins. Additionally, Denver comes into this contest trailing by an average of 6.6 points at the beginning of its drives. In short, this is a bad football team that’s usually going to have to play from behind. That should mean constant volume for Hamler, who’s seen exactly 10 targets in each of the Broncos’ past two losses. In a sneaky sort of way, I like this matchup for the Penn State product. Though Miami ranks eighth in pass defense DVOA, their propensity to blitz in zero coverage looks does leave the Dolphins susceptible to big plays — just as we saw with Christian Kirk a few weeks back. Hamler, who claims to have once run an unofficial 4.27 40-yard dash, is the perfect archetype of receiver to burn Miami deep, especially if he’s going to continue to get double-digit opportunities to do so.


TIGHT END

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $3,300

Just try and look at the TE options on the main slate this Sunday without gagging. Thanks to the Chiefs and the Raiders squaring off in primetime — not to mention Rob Gronkowski’s Buccaneers playing on Monday — we’re left with Mark Andrews ($4,900) as the most expensive play at the position. Andrews hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week 5. It’s an absolute mess and I definitely wouldn’t be looking to invest anything substantial in a tight end for Week 11. It’s become so desperate that we’re honestly just searching for cheap floor production at this point, which is kind of Thomas’ whole fantasy appeal. After playing 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps against Detroit, Thomas now leads all NFC TEs with a 86.4% snap share for the season. The 29-year-old also has some touchdown upside, as he’s been on the receiving end of 57.1% of Washington’s targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line — the highest rate in the NFL. Again, Thomas is by no means the sexiest asset in the world, but he’s at least consistently involved, which sadly makes him an elite option at a barren position. He should be in a nice spot against a Cincinnati defense that’s allowing the second-most DKFP to opposing tight ends.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]


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