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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 11 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

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Stacks

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Matt Ryan ($6,300) – Julio Jones ($7,500) – Hayden Hurst ($4,400) – Michael Thomas ($7,300)

With many daily fantasy players focused on trying to figure out which Saints backup QB to play, we could get a low-owned Matt Ryan here in a game which has a 50.5 over/under attached to it on DraftKings Sportsbook. Atlanta comes into this matchup off a bye and the Falcons have now scored 25 points or more in three of their last four games. During that four-game streak Ryan has averaged 318.5 yards and two TDs per game, with a healthy Julio Jones seeing nine targets a game in this same stretch. Julio’s hit 137 yards in two of those starts as well and faces a Saints defense this week that he’s lit up on multiple occasions before. Jones has gone for 140+ yards in two of his last four meetings with the Saints and carries a significant height and weight advantage over Marshon Lattimore, who ranks just 63rd in grading out of 84 cornerbacks on PFF this week.

With Calvin Ridley ($7,300) still banged up and questionable to even play, both Jones and TE Hayden Hurst should see more targets here and it’s worth noting that the Saints have been sneaky bad at stopping opposing TEs, allowing the 7th most receptions to the position this year, overall. Hurst has also come on lately for Atlanta and has seen 7.33 targets per game over his last three starts, making him pretty attractive at under $4.5K. On the other side, Alvin Kamara ($9,100) is priced up here at his highest point of the year and also missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury. Michael Thomas may not have been on the same page as Jameis Winston ($5,900) in limited action last week, but Falcons DB Kendall Sheffield has allowed a 74% catch rate to receivers so Thomas seems likely to get going in this spot. Atlanta’s only allowed three rushing TDs this year and with Thomas’ DraftKings price as suppressed as we’ve seen it in years, taking him as your main Saints piece seems like the prudent move if you’re stacking this game.

Just Missed: Alex Smith ($5,300) – Terry McLaurin ($6,900) – Gio Bernard ($5,500)


Quarterback

Alex Smith, Washington Football Team at Cincinnati Bengals ($5,300)

The feel-good story on Alex Smith keeps getting more feel-goody every week as the man who nearly needed his leg amputated after a gruesome injury two years ago threw for 390 yards last week in a close loss against Detroit. While Washington scored all their TDs on the ground in Week 10, that production is sure to flip in Smith’s favor at some point and a matchup with the Bengals could produce just such a result. Cincinnati has now allowed the second most passing TDs on the season and comes into Week 11 with the sixth-worst red zone defense in the league. The Bengals struggle mightily to get pressure on the QB, ranking second last as a defensive line in adjusted sack rate, and that has caused their secondary to get torched a lot lately as they’ve now allowed six TDs to opposing WRs the last two weeks. Smith is a nice play on his own at well under $5.5K and pairing him with a stud WR like Terry McLaurin ($6,900) here could produce some potential fireworks from an affordable QB/WR duo.

Just Missed: Lamar Jackson ($7,300)


Running Back

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers ($6,400)

Editor’s note: Lions RB D’Andre Swift (concussion) has been ruled out this week.

Swift was officially named “starter” prior to last week’s game against Washington and took a bell cow workload for the first time in his career, producing 149 total yards, five receptions and a TD on 21 touches. While the spectres of Adrian Peterson ($4,000) and Kerryon Johnson ($4,000) still saw the field on over 20% of the snaps last week, it was only in a limited fashion as Swift played on 73% of the snaps. While last week’s matchup was solid, this week’s is even better as the Panthers have been one of the worst teams in guarding against opposing RBs in the league. Carolina has ceded the most receptions to opposing RBs this year and the fourth-most DKFP per game, overall, to the position. With a price increase and many people focused on whoever is playing RB on the other side of this game, Swift’s ownership likely won’t get out of control here either making him an easy anchor target for GPP lineups.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots at Houston Texans ($5,700)

Harris isn’t someone you likely want a ton of exposure to if you’re making multiple lineups but he’s also not likely to garner a ton of ownership in big field GPPs either. The second-year back hasn’t caught a single pass in each of his last two starts—which admittedly limits his upside—but he’s been a monster rushing the ball, averaging 5.62 YPC over his last three games. Playing Harris is all about the matchup this week though as the Texans are the worst rush defense in the league, ceding 5.2 YPC (worst in the league) and have allowed the most rushing yards and second-most rushing TDs to RBs this season. While there’s a big bust factor in play here, Harris could easily find the end-zone multiple times against such a bad defense, making him the perfect lower-owned GPP play to target at the position.

Just Missed: Kalen Ballage ($5,600)


Wide Receiver

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets ($5,100)

Williams has been hot or cold with Justin Herbert ($6,800) as his QB, going for at least 90 yards and a TD in two of the last five games. The issue for fantasy purposes is that the non-blow-up games have debilitating. Williams has gone for under six DKFP now in two of his last four starts and projects as a severe boom or bust pick. The Jets could easily be the opponent who produces the next boom though as their secondary has been torched by all kinds of receivers this year, and they have allowed other big downfield threats like Tim Patrick ($4,800) and DeAndre Hopkins to post 100+ yards and a TD against them. With Keenan Allen ($7,400) projecting as some of the heaviest chalk on this slate, pivoting off him to the much cheaper and likely lessor owned Williams for your Chargers exposure this week could make for a great move in big-field GPPs.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys ($6,000)

Jefferson is coming off another great game, where he posted eight receptions and 135 yards against a notoriously tough Bears secondary. The rookie has flashed elite upside while playing opposite Adam Thielen ($6,300) and has been a nightmare for teams who have tried to keep him contained with single coverage. Jefferson ranks fourth in yards per catch on the season while racking up the eighth most YAC on the year at his position. Having allowed the most TDs on the year to opposing WRs, the Cowboys’ secondary isn’t likely to offer much resistance here either and it’s worth noting that this game is being played indoors, a situation Jefferson has thrived in, posting 100+ yards in three of the last four Vikings games that were played in a dome. At an affordable price and with ideal conditions, Jefferson’s a great value to build around at WR this week.

Just Missed: Curtis Samuel ($4,700)


Tight End

Jordan Akins, Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots ($2,500)

The TE position is barren this week with Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller all off the main slate due to a bye, injury or primetime game. While Hayden Hurst ($4,400-see above) and Logan Thomas ($3,300) are both intriguing candidates it also doesn’t hurt to drag the bottom of the bargain bin this week for potential options. Priced at the minimum, Akins definitely fits the bargain moniker in Week 11 as the pass-catching TE returned from injury a couple weeks back but has yet to make a huge impact on the scoresheet—despite leading the Texans’ TE group in targets over the last two games.

It’s worth noting though that two of Akins’ five targets over the last two weeks have come in the red zone and the fact he is being utilized consistently beneath the 20-yard line does give us a pretty good idea that a TD for him could be on the horizon soon. With New England likely focused on shutting down the speedy duo of Brandin Cooks ($5,200) and Will Fuller ($6,200), Akins is someone who could pop-off for another couple red zone looks here and, if he does get you a score, the studs you're able to fit around him could be a huge difference-maker in GPPs.

Just Missed: Logan Thomas ($3,300)


DST

Miami Dolphins ($3,400) at Denver Broncos

The Dolphins may be going up against a Drew Lock-less Broncos team this week—he’s questionable (ribs)—but even if Lock does play, Miami’s DST has done more than enough to warrant rostering them here. The Dolphins have now held three of their last five opponents to under 200 passing yards, including Justin Herbert ($6,800) who hadn’t throw for less than 260 yards in a game before last week. Miami is also starting to get consistent pressure on the QB—they rank out 13th in adjusted sack rate on the year—and have been great at forcing/creating turnovers, as they’re fourth in the league in that regard with 15 on the season.

Lock has actually been low-key terrible this season too. The second-year starter has now failed to post a passer rating over 100 in any of his games and also has 10 INTs in his last five games after imploding for 4 INTs last week vs. Las Vegas—a team with limited pass rushers. Even if the Dolphins are popular this week, they likely won’t get too chalky given the $3.4K price tag. If you can afford to get up to them, you probably should though as Denver’s eroding QB situation could spawn a pick-6 or two here.

Just missed: Atlanta Falcons ($2,300)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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