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Fantasy Football Picks: Cardinals vs. Seahawks DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Cardinals and the Seahawks with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Very rarely do we get the same matchup in two primetime games in the same season, but if there was ever a contest that needed a second round on National TV, it’s the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Seattle Seahawks. Week 7’s 37-34 overtime victory for the Cardinals was somewhat of a coming out party for Kyler Murray ($13,000) in his sophomore campaign, not to mention a performance that vaulted the young QB into the MVP conversation along side Russell Wilson ($11,800). Plus, if that wasn’t enough of a draw, how about these two squads being tied atop the NFC West at 6-3?

Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$1M to 1st] (ARI vs SEA)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Kyler Murray ($19,500 CP) - Just don’t overthink it. It’s always a good idea to try and save as much salary as you can and build a balanced lineup, but there are certain scenarios where that’s simply impossible. Murray is averaging 34.6 DKFP across his past five games and 31.4 DKFP for the entire season. Generally speaking, when a QB is that productive, it has a trickle down effect on the rest of the roster; yet Murray’s league-leading 604 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns make him a bit of an outlier. Really, it’s DeAndre Hopkins ($10,800) that possesses a ceiling most correlated to Murray’s success, though it’s not as if the veteran wideout provides much monetary relief in the Captain’s spot, either. At the end of the day, the former Heisman winner is generating an eye-popping 0.78 fantasy points per drop back and he’ll be going up against a Seahawks D/ST ($2,800) that’s surrendered the most DKFP to opposing quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Get Murray in at 1.5x value and worry about the rest later.

DK Metcalf ($15,300 CP) - While Wilson would also be a more than acceptable play in the Captain’s slot, I’m banking on a bit of a bounce-back performance from Metcalf. Though it does appear that Tyler Lockett ($9,400) is expected to be active for tonight’s contest — where he’ll see the same secondary that allowed him to collect 15 receptions, 200 yards and three touchdowns a few weeks back — I do have some concerns with whether or not he’ll be impacted by his knee injury. However, more than that, I just think Seattle will be inclined to feed Metcalf the football in what is shaping up as a must-win game if the Seahawks hope to take their division. Not to get too reductive, but Seattle’s lost both times the Ole Miss product has been held below 90 yards receiving in 2020 and Patrick Peterson isn’t exactly Jalen Ramsey at this point in his career. I’m willing to bet that Week 7 was a fluke and that Arizona won’t be able to contain Metcalf in a second meeting. I mean, the man does lead all WRs with at least 25 catches in PPR fantasy points per touch (3.88). He’s sort of an explosive talent.


FLEX Plays

Christian Kirk ($7,400) - Kirk’s salary has risen $1K since these two teams last met in late October, but that’s the price you pay for a wideout that’s managed five touchdowns in his past four games. For all intents and purposes, Kirk is a high-leverage threat. He comes into this matchup leading all Cardinals WRs in yards per reception (15.8), while also leading the team in target share inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (33.3%). Basically, he checks all the boxes that need to be checked when trying to figure out the validity of a hyper-efficient sidekick to a volume monster like the aforementioned Hopkins. These traits could be especially important when facing this Seattle defense, too. The Seahawks — who tend to blitz and leave a lot of single-high safety looks — are one of just two teams in the NFL that have conceded more than 40 passing plays of over 20 yards so far this season.

Editor’s Note: Seahawks RB Chris Carson (foot) and RB Travis Homer (wrist/knee) will be inactive for tonight’s game vs. the Cardinals.

Carlos Hyde ($5,200) - Most of Hyde’s value is tied up in the status of Chris Carson ($8,400) and his injured foot, but if Carson is eventually unable to suit up, Hyde should see a majority of the workload playing alongside DeeJay Dallas ($600). In such a scenario, I’d anticipate Hyde getting the first crack at any goal line work, which could be a bountiful role considering Seattle has the second-highest implied point total of any team in Week 11. I also wouldn’t sleep on Hyde’s possible contributions in the passing attack. The 30-year-old RB did average 3.7 receptions per game as recently as 2017, so you know he’s capable.

Editor’s Note: Cardinals TE Maxx Williams will be active for tonight’s game vs. the Seahawks.

Dan Arnold ($2,200) - This is certainly a low-floor play, but with so many expensive assets on this slate, you might need to take a risk with someone like Arnold. While it’s more than accurate to point out that the Cardinals don’t often feature the position — Arizona’s tight ends have just an 11% target share in 2020 — Arnold might be the last man standing with both Maxx Williams ($1,400) and Darnell Daniels ($400) questionable to play in Thursday’s contest. Arnold is coming off hauling in a season-high four receptions in Sunday’s win over Buffalo and that number could grow if he’s forced into a 70% or 80% snap rate.


Fades

Kenyan Drake ($6,200) - While Drake did look good in Week 10 coming back from his own injury woes with a 100-yard performance versus the Bills, this does not set up like a script where I want to use the RB. To be blunt, teams have just figured out that you should be throwing the ball when facing the Seahawks, which has led to a league-low 35.4% rush rate for Seattle’s opponents. There’s also the matter of this being a full-point PPR setting and Drake contributing almost nothing to the passing attack all season long. If you’re going to use an Arizona RB, Chase Edmonds ($5,600) has proven to be a more efficient DFS asset; or consider fading the position entirely, as Murray is the actual “goal line back” on the Cardinals.


THE OUTCOME

I think I have to lean with the Cardinals in this rematch. Though it might seem absurd that the Seahawks would drop a must-win divisional game at home, Seattle’s 1-5 ATS in its past six contests against the NFC West and 1-4 ATS in its past five contests overall. Conversely, Arizona is a stunning 5-0-1 ATS in its past six games as an underdog. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cardinals will win, but in a close script, I’m having a hard time envisioning the Seahawks’ putrid defense stopping Kyler Murray.

Final Score: Arizona 34, Seattle 28

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$1M to 1st] (ARI vs SEA)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.